The Isaiah Hartenstein conundrum
The Knicks want to re-sign their two-way pivot and there’s mutual interest, but one opposing team may be lurking in the shadows with a more lucrative deal
Two of the Knicks' most important players are set to hit free agency this offseason: Isaiah Hartenstein and OG Anunoby. While several reports have stated Anunoby will re-sign, things seem less certain for Hartenstein, who could be priced out by opposing teams.
While the Knicks can afford to give Hartenstein around $17 million annually thanks to having his Early Bird Rights, that may not be enough to retain the 26-year-old big man. According to some reports, Hartenstein could receive offers around $20 million a year by opposing teams to lure him away from the Knicks. $20 million for a player of Hartenstein’s caliber may seem like a lot, but the NBA has seen an overhaul of role-player contracts in recent seasons.
Whether it be Grayson Allen receiving a four-year, $70 million extension this season, Cameron Johnson making around $23 million annually until 2027 or New York’s own Josh Hart making roughly $20 million each of the next three years, contracts for fringe starters are starting to get crazy. This makes it easier to understand why teams may be in a hurry to pay Hartenstein so much.
Still, $20 million may seem like a lot for a center of Hartenstein’s archetype in the modern NBA. However, his value lies well beyond said archetype. He’s an impactful defender, a great roll man for Jalen Brunson and tenacious on the glass. Unfortunately for the Knicks, these traits make him a premier center for several other teams that may have interest. Thankfully, New York has several advantages in potentially re-signing Hartenstein.
Obviously, he’s been here two years and has a deep connection with both the city and his teammates. The Knicks will likely offer him a longer-term deal, something other teams may be hesitant to do, especially if they want to pay him $20 million annually. But, what teams could actually be interested in Hartenstein? There aren’t many confirmed reports, but based on financials, team needs, and roster construction, one team is undoubtedly the biggest threat to steal the big man away from New York.
The Oklahoma City Thunder not only check all the boxes listed above, there’ve been reports speculating on their interest. Most notably, Stefan Bondy of the New York Post wrote “ . . . the Thunder would offer a short-term deal (such as two years) with a high salary, providing both sides with long-term flexibility.” That would make financial sense: a two-year contract would expire the same offseason OKC would be set to extend Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. But the Thunder have other reasons to be interested in Hartenstein.
In theory, given the Thunder’s offensive scheme, it may seem unrealistic for them to have such high interest in a center like Hartenstein. The Thunder run a five-out offense, leaving the paint open for star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and many others. This would explain why the Thunder led the league in drives this season by a fairly wide margin. However, this offense, alongside their personnel, has created a new issue that the Thunder could look to solve.
During the regular season, OKC ranked 27th in total rebounds per game, and 29th per Cleaning The Glass (CTG) in opponent offensive rebounding percentage with a rate of 28.9%. To keep it simple, the Thunder are getting killed on the boards. This was a problem in the playoffs as well, where the Mavericks outrebounded them in all six games, most notably 46-33 in Game 6 and 47-31 in Game 7. Adding a tenacious rebounder like Hartenstein could be a serious difference-maker for the Thunder, one they’d be willing to pay for. In addition, Hartenstein is a great interior defender, something the Thunder could really use off the bench. Oklahoma City’s primary backup center is Jaylin Williams, with a little bit of Kenrich Williams sprinkled in. Those aren’t terrible options, but if the Thunder want to get serious about contending they aren’t ideal. Hartenstein would be. So the Thunder can offer him more money and have serious reasons to be interested. Do the Knicks still have hope?
Yes. The biggest thing that will likely keep Hartenstein from signing with the Thunder will be his role. Hartenstein has no chance of starting over or next to Chet Holmgren, so he’d be reduced to a bench role like he’s had with the Knicks. This may not seem like a big deal, but this role wouldn’t be as enticing as what it’d be in New York.
Last season the Thunder saw a little more than two-thirds of their total possessions with Holmgren on the floor, according to CTG. This likely has to do with the inconsistent play of both Williamses. Hartenstein would definitely see more minutes than both; however, the consistency of minutes likely wouldn’t be the same as it’s been with the Knicks, and as said before, he wouldn’t have a chance to start. This gives the Knicks the sell they need for Hartenstein to hopefully re-sign a new and improved deal. Leon Rose has to do his absolute best to bring Hartenstein back, for several reasons.
Most notably, Mitchell Robinson has a nasty injury history that has caused the Knicks to often rely on their backup bigs. The Nerlens Noels and Taj Gibsons of the past are gone, and New York finally has their guy to back-up Robinson; to let him walk now would be foolish. The Knicks can offer Hartenstein premier money and a great role. Opposing teams will likely only be able to offer one or the other. Hartenstein has started more games in two seasons with the Knicks than he did the four years he spent with the Clippers, Rockets, Nuggets and Cavaliers. That brings up another precedent, a more human one.
Hartenstein has been on five different teams in six seasons. His tenure with the Knicks is the second time he’s spent more than one year with the same organization. I can’t speak for Hartenstein, but as a fellow human I can imagine it’s not fun having to move your family around the country every year (Ed. note: I once moved 10 times in 2.5 years. It was not at all fun). That, combined with the fact that he and his wife Kourtney are expecting a child soon, makes it seem more likely that Hartenstein would want to stay.
Hartenstein has the chance to build something real here in New York — hell, he already has. The Knicks may not be able to offer him $20 million like the Thunder, but $17 million isn’t far off and for the first time in his career, Hartenstein could have some real stability. Whether he’s starting in Robinson’s absence or coming off the bench as one of the league’s best backup bigs, Hartenstein has a home in New York, and I’m not too sure he’d want to up and leave for a little extra money.
But back to basketball: the Knicks need Hartenstein. Robinson has played 65 or more games just twice in his six-year career. Don’t get me wrong, Robinson is a very valuable part of the Knicks’ core, but his constant absence has made the need for a top-notch backup center more and more prevalent. If Hartenstein were to walk, the Knicks would have a massive hole off the bench, and if Robinson were to get hurt next season, the team would suffer heavily.
Sure, the Knicks can offer a contract to another center on the market. However, they won’t provide what Hartenstein does, and for the most part are considerably worse than him. But say the Knicks enter this worst-case scenario. It’s smart to look at some of the potential options in case Hartenstein leaves.
Jonas Valančiūnas
Keep in mind the Knicks have their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, worth around $12 million. Jonas Valančiūnas is a solid player, but it’s doubtful he’ll receive much more than that on the open market. Given that he saw limited minutes in this year’s playoffs, he could be enticed by a one-year prove-it deal in a big market. Off the bench for New York, Valančiūnas could provide some value.
Offensively, Valančiūnas is still pretty damn good and could bring some valuable spacing off the bench. He isn’t a good 3-point shooter by any means, but he’s an elite midrange threat, shooting 52% (87th percentile) between 4-14 feet, per CTG. He’s still good down low, and while he doesn’t often operate in the pick-and-roll, averaging fewer than 1.5 PNR possessions per game according to NBA.com, he’s had solid usage with this play in the past.
The only problem is that he’s pretty useless defensively, hence why he saw fewer minutes in the postseason. He’s slow-footed, doesn’t have great instincts and is barbeque chicken if put on the perimeter. This is where he wouldn’t fit in with the Knicks, especially with Tom Thibodeau as his coach, thus making him a tough candidate to fall behind.
Andre Drummond
Next is Andre Drummond, who is certainly an interesting choice if the Knicks opt to go down this route. These days Drummond doesn’t really serve a super significant role, as he hasn’t played 20+ minutes per game since 2020. However, given the Knicks’ personnel they may be able to get by by continuing the trend of giving him limited minutes.
Despite only playing around 17 minutes per game last season, Drummond managed to average 8.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game on solid efficiency. While he’s still prone to the hilariously dumb play on offense and his rebound numbers may not be as impactful as you’d think, Drummond is still a solid player on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he could serve a very similar role to Hartenstein – he’s not as skilled down low, but he has his uses. As for defense, Drummond is fine. He has his limitations, given his archetype, but he’s a massive body down low and holds his own more times than not.
Xavier Tillman Sr.
Now while I may have some bias toward the 25-year-old as a Michigan State fan, that’s not enough to blind me to his weaknesses. However, compared to the other options on the market, especially the first two mentioned, he may be the Knicks’ best bet if Hartenstein walks. He’s the weakest of the bunch offensively, but his defense and intensity more than make up for it, especially in a Thibodeau system.
As a 6-foot-8 center, Tillman may not have the size of a guy like Drummond or Valančiūnas, but he doesn’t play small. Tillman is a great defender down low, and not half-bad when forced to pick up on the perimeter. His offense isn’t great — to be frank, it can be putrid at times — but in limited minutes Tillman can be a very valuable asset for any team. After winning a title with Boston, he’ll hit the market as an unrestricted free agent. Given his offensive struggles, the Knicks can likely bring him in on a pretty cheap deal, making for a low-risk/high-reward acquisition if he can bounce back on that side of the ball.
In terms of other options, there’s Nicolas Claxton, likely the best center on the market, meaning he’s due for a big payday, one the Knicks likely can’t afford. There’s Mason Plumlee, an offensively diverse player with big limitations on defense; Daniel Theis, a good floor-spacing big who’s solid defensively despite his lack of size; and guys like Jaxson Hayes – i.e. a whole lot of players who simply aren’t as good as what the Knicks currently have.
So what’s next?
With free agency beginning June 30th, the Knicks will likely send their offer to Hartenstein rather quickly. However, don’t be surprised if Hartenstein takes his time, especially if the reports of other teams’ interest are true. As confident as we are that Hartenstein will re-sign with New York for reasons other than money, it makes sense for him to test his value on the open market before making a final decision.
The Thunder can and likely will offer him that two-year, $40 million deal, but the Knicks can offer long-term financial security and the chance to continue to build something he helped start in New York. I can’t overstate the importance of Hartenstein to this Knicks team. The front office may have brought him in on a cheap deal, but it’s time to give the big man what he’s worth.
