The Knicks are facing a pivotal 2022-23 season, with a stable of young players looking to prove themselves and a heap of expectations to achieve something. How will they fare?

Welcome back to another New York Knicks basketball season! Each season is filled with excitement, fan infighting, and, ultimately, disappointment. But what makes this fanbase special is that no amount of pain or embarrassment will keep us from coming back. Because every now and then we’ll get a season like the magical run of 2020-21 that makes it all worth it. Will we get another season like that this time around? Or are we just in for another round of that familiar heartbreak? Here are ten things that may determine just that.

Will the Knicks actually push the pace?

Look, this narrative is hardly new. In fact, it seems as though you can set a yearly clock to it. Coming off of a disappointing season, the Knicks vow to play faster. Last season they even came out of the gates pushing the pace. But, per usual, the team reverted to its methodical ways, and ended the season second to last in the NBA in pace, moving at a turtle-like pace with 96.42 possessions per 48 minutes, ahead of only the Dallas Mavericks. The problem with playing that slow is it results in a high percentage of half-court possessions. For a team led by Luka Doncic, that may be tenable. Unfortunately, the Knicks do not have that kind of top-end talent. 

In head coach Tom Thibodeau’s defense, a part of the reason he implored the team to slow down was because his defense, the backbone of his foundation, had slipped too much to his liking from the season before. And to his credit, the Knicks’ defense leveled out and ultimately they finished just outside the top 10 in defensive rating. But how much of the Knicks’ defensive improvement was due to slowing down the pace? Are we certain the improvement didn’t come from simply removing Kemba Walker from the rotation? The Knicks ended the season with a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 110.5. That number was 114.5 when Walker played, and dipped all the way down to 108 when he sat. 

If we can agree that climbing out of the bottom of the league in pace and, with improved personnel, retaining an above average defense, are in fact not mutually exclusive, the next question is simple: what can the Knicks do to improve their pace? For simple questions, there are often simple answers. The Knicks could just… play faster.

But, of course, it goes a bit deeper than that. For starters, these players are not robots. Some players simply look more comfortable at an increased pace than others. Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley (who, curiously, despite playing at a seemingly frantic pace, were actually a part of many of the Knicks’ slowest lineups last season) absolutely demolished teams in transition last season. Recently-extended RJ Barrett can be a victim of tunnel vision, but is also a force with a head of steam. Julius Randle, despite having a horror show of a season, had his best stretch when he committed to playing fast on that infamous West Coast trip. The answer could lie in playing lineups that feature the teams’ fastest guys more.

Ultimately, however, it comes down to the defense. I believe that Thibodeau preaches pace, we’ve seen the pictures of his offensive principles to prove it! He wants movement. Or he thinks he does. I am also sure that he is completely unwilling to sacrifice effort and success on the defensive end of the court. Take Toppin, who started leaking out more and more as the season went on. That is something that would seem to go against everything in Thibodeau’s being. But a quick glance at the stats tells us that the Knicks got more rebounds and defended seven points per 100 possessions better when he played. So Thibodeau allowed, nay, embraced it. If the Knicks come out defending like they’re capable, we will see them play faster as well.

How can Mitchell Robinson improve?

Let’s make one thing clear: if Robinson plays like he did in the preseason, he really does not need to improve. His contract will be a bargain. I’ve always said his ceiling is about 90% of Rudy Gobert. I don’t think he’ll ever be able to do what Gobert does on the short roll, but he is arguably more physically gifted and every other part of Gobert’s game, including the defensive impact, is there for the taking.

Mitch has always had it a bit tough. For years his job has been thankless, one that sees little gratification. Defend your ass off, screen whenever a ball handler calls for one, just don’t expect to touch the ball unless it’s a lob or offensive rebound. Even his boxouts, which eat up space and swallow the oppositions attempt at an offensive rebound whole, are immensely valuable no doubt, but they often lead to a teammates’ rebound (Randle has to lead the league in low-leverage rebounds thanks to Robinson). Last season, the Knicks got 4.2%, 2%, and 2% more offensive, defensive, and total rebounds, respectively, when Robinson played than when he sat. All three numbers are the biggest percentage difference of any Knick rotation player.

This is all to say that it would be understandable for Robinson to grow tired or frustrated with his role. Yet what we saw in preseason was breathtaking, an accumulation of just about everything (sans post moves!) Knick fans have been asking of him for years. And a large part of it was embracing the role that he has been tasked with, and improving at the margins.

Here is a set we have seen hundreds of times. Randle is isolating on the weak side with shooters on the opposite wing, as Robinson does his best not to cater the floor spacing as he occupies the dunker’s spot. But then something new happens; when Daniel Gafford darts to double Randle, Robinson bolts to the open spot under the rim, catches Randle’s pass cleanly, and dunks it before Gafford can recover. 

And here is Mitch doing more of what most Knicks fans should be very familiar with; dominating the offensive glass. The twist here? His composure after gathering the first rebound and finding RJ with the little flip pass. I don’t know what that second offensive rebound is, but I know there aren’t too many people on Earth who can do that.

Which brings us to the thrust of Mitch — he has the physical tools, but for him to reach his ceiling he needs to put them together while accepting his limitations. He’s never going to be Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He can be Rudy Gobert. So how can Robinson improve? He can be a more effective screener and use his size to unlock driving lanes for Barrett and Jalen Brunson. He can up his FT% to a respectable number (75% in preseason!). And, most importantly, he can continue showing the team he is capable of staying on the court over the totality of a season (here’s hoping the first game wasn’t an indicator of things to come).

Can Julius take a step forward by taking a step back?

This is a big one. Knick fans spent much of the offseason anticipating a Randle trade. Regardless of your views on Randle, two things are important to acknowledge here: 1) There is validity to the belief Randle should be traded. 2) That no longer matters. The regular season has begun, and he remains a Knick. So now what? We know what we don’t want. We can’t have a repeat of last season. Both from a stylistic standpoint and an effort one. Helio-Randle needs to be gone forever. So do the lapses of effort. His leash needs to be shorter. Much shorter.

But is there a path to salvaging this situation? I believe there is. And I think the preseason foreshadowed the recipe to success. Randle made a noticeable effort at improving his chemistry with both Barrett and Robinson. The vibes are there. He grabbed rebounds and bolted up the court. He screened for Brunson. These are all areas that correlate with a successful season for Randle. There were also struggles. He took a handful of jump shots many hoped they had seen the last of last season. He also has an especially frustrating habit of hesitating when a teammate has created an advantage for him. It’s something I’ve noticed with other helio-style players; LeBron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden. They expect their teammates to catch and fire when they receive the ball, but do not reciprocate, feeling more comfortable pump faking and taking a dribble or a side step.

Randle is not those players, though, and it’s time we put the idea that he can be to bed. Randle will never be a one-man wrecking crew that leads a team to extreme heights. And that’s okay! Because if he takes a step back, he can actually be a better version of himself. He can be someone who enhances and enables his teammates’ play through screening and spacing. And yes, occasionally the Knicks will need a basket at the end of the shot clock, at which point he is one of the handful of guys on the team capable of getting an average efficiency shot for himself in such a situation.

One aspect of all of this I have not seen discussed is how this will impact his defense. Some fans have posited that Randle’s defense took such a hit last season due to exhaustion from his offensive role. I question that solely because he was a plus defender the season before, when he carried an even bigger offensive burden. In my opinion, Randle’s overall impact on that end of the court lies in his head coach’s hands. Thibodeau loves drop coverage. He values protecting the rim more than anything (except maybe the corner 3-pointer). But Randle thrives on switches. He was arguably the team’s best defender of Trae Young during that forgettable postseason series in 2021. More than anything, though, Randle has proven to be a guy who loves a challenge. Forcing him to sink into the paint may bring out lethargy. Ask him to take on a dynamic ball handler on the perimeter? We can see him shine. And who knows, all of a sudden his attentiveness could return in other areas as he gets more locked in.

What does Isaiah Hartenstein bring?

Speaking of preseason, Hartenstein had a tough one. His teammates seemed to struggle to adapt to the style of ball he is used to, and thrives, playing. The first game perhaps showed some chemistry building in the second half, but time will tell.

The bench, which usually blitzes opponents, struggled to find a rhythm throughout the preseason. In fact, it looked most comfortable in the spare minutes Jericho Sims played in Hartensteins’ place. Is it panic time? Hardly. Hartenstein is so different from the type of center these guys are used to, it was always going to take time. But he should fill in as a fine bench player for the Knicks. Still, there’s a reason he signed for $16 million across two seasons. He is not without warts. So what does this guy add to the team?

For starters, he is, excluding Sims, the most reliable screening center the Knicks have had in a long time. And he complements that with a passing ability and touch on the short roll that makes him a threat of the likes Knicks fans are unfamiliar with. Here he is showcasing his floater, which we will likely see plenty of this season. While recent Knicks centers have either been solely vertical threats (Robinson, Sims) or a threat to his own teammates (Noel), Hartenstein adds a dynamic that makes X/5 pick-and-rolls more effective. It’s worth noting, he struggled in the preseason handling slip passes and positioning himself on the roll, which is something to keep your eye on.

This is where he shines. Hartenstein is a dynamo passing. He will find any and every cutter from all angles. This is why the ceiling for him as the primary screener is so high. He gives the defense multiple things to worry about.

And last, but not least, he is at least a capable shooter from beyond. Who is the last center the Knicks had who could shoot outside three feet? Taj Gibson? Kyle O’Quinn?? Hartenstein won’t threaten Evan Fournier’s 3-point record, but the fact that he is willing to fire creates space a Knicks offense hasn’t had in, well, ever. It also allows Toppin to operate as the primary screener (if Thibodeau allows it) which gives the Knicks multiple looks to throw at a defense.

If you listen to Strickland pods (you should!), our very own Prez had a wonderful monologue regarding Hartenstein’s rim protection. If you don’t know, Hartenstein was second in the entire NBA last season in opponent FG% at the basket. That is… quite good. But that number may have been misleading. Hartenstein was advertised as a Mitch Robinson-like rim protector with passing and shooting. It appears we got a little ahead of ourselves. He is a fine rim protector, but capable of being overmatched against the right opponent. He also has worrying defensive rebound numbers/habits. It will be interesting to see how the bench unit rebounds with him on the court, given Quickley is one of the league’s best rebounding guards, and that the unit has been fantastic on the glass the past two seasons.

Which young player makes a leap? Can they do it under Thibs?

Oh, the Knicks’ kids. This has to be the only franchise where a topic that should be so simple is so divisive. I simply refuse to believe other teams’ fan bases squabble the way Knick fans do about this kind of stuff. Is Immanuel Quickley a “true point guard?” Can Obi Toppin play center? Is Quentin Grimes better than Evan Fournier? All of these questions miss the forest for the trees. It emphasizes the micro whilst ignoring the macro entirely. It also is an arrogant mis-assessment of the micro; are we really sure that Grimes is not a better basketball player than Fournier today? But I digress.

For a team like the Knicks, the answers don’t matter nearly as much as a willingness to ask the questions. Information is currency in today’s NBA. Wanna know why the Knicks have struggled so much at talent acquisition? Because there is no tangible feel for what they need to build the roster. They signed Kemba Walker because they wanted to upgrade from Elfrid Payton. But what if Quickley was just an upgrade from him? What if Thibodeau started him, or Rose, and let them split point guard duties? Would Walker have been necessary? These problems will continue to arise as long as rigidity persists and imagination lacks. 

So what about this season? Can a young player battle the climate and emerge on the other side unscathed? I believe all three of the aforementioned names have realistic paths to meaningful improvement.

Quickley is already a plus rebounder and defender, capable of switching 1-3 because of his length (6-foot-8 wingspan). If he continues to improve as a distributor and finisher, while scaling back the heat-check 3-pointers, we could be talking about him for Sixth Man of the Year.

Toppin is a menace. He moves faster than any player in the league but sees the court as if he moves at a snail's pace. His level of processing is rare across the league. Defensively, he is further along than any scout thought he would ever be. Give him the consistent jump shot we saw at the end of last season, and there is a real argument for him to usurp Randle as the team’s starting power forward.

To me, however, the clear answer is Grimes. His path to meaningful improvement is the easiest. There is no Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, or even Derrick Rose standing in his path. Even if Thibodeau doesn’t start Grimes to start the season (once he’s healthy, after missing the first game), we know Thibodeau prefers Grimes. He loves the kid’s effort and rare ability on defense. He is a willing 3-point shooter with a high release that makes closing out on him near impossible. And in his one preseason game, he showcased an improved ability to attack close-outs and create for the team. If a young player makes a significant leap in the public eye this season, it will likely be Quentin Grimes.

What does the rotation look like?

Hoooo boy. I am fighting every fiber of my being to not go on an even longer rant than usual. Of every Thibs-ism (of which there are plenty), his ancient rotations are, without rival, the most maddening to me. No team in the league substitutes less. No team in the league uses fewer combinations of players. There is an arrogance behind his mythology. It is as if he is sure he knows the answer, and he will keep trying it over and over until the players prove him right. It’s never occurred to him that a better answer could be out there. Or, if it has, he has no interest in finding that out.

Predicting the (traditional) rotations is quite simple. Unless there is foul trouble or an injury, no starter will leave the game before the five minute mark of a half. It doesn’t happen with Thibodeau. Robinson will exit the game first, for Hartenstein, followed by Fournier for Quickley or Grimes. Slowly but surely, Thibodeau will infuse the rest of the bench into the game for his positional counterpart until, by the end of the quarter, the five-man bench unit (Rose-Quickley-Grimes-Toppin-Hartenstein) is in the game. Then, depending on the flow of the game, he will reinsert the starters into the game at some point in the second quarter and they will finish the half. Perhaps on some nights, if a bench player is hot, he will remain in the game and finish the half instead. That is it. That is the depth of Thibodeau’s imagination. No cross-subbing. No mixing of units or who plays with who. Each player fits their tight little box. 

The main problem with this is it’s another example of a coach forcing a roster to fit his vision, rather than a coach adjusting his vision for the talent available. This team’s biggest strength is its versatility. They have multiple players who can play multiple positions. Barrett is a small forward who can be a big shooting guard or a point forward with three smaller players. Quickley has thrived next to Derrick Rose and as a lead initiator. Can Toppin and Randle play together? Why not cross-substitute and give them a few minutes together each half? Even if it’s not perfect, it increases Toppin’s nightly minutes ceiling.

Last season, the Knicks had two different lineups in the top 10 of minutes played in the entire league. What were those two lineups? Walker-Fournier-Barrett-Randle-Robinson, and, you guessed it, Burks-Fournier-Barrett-Randle-Robinson. That is absolute insanity. The writing was on the wall at least halfway through the season. This was one of the league’s youngest teams that had 40 games to figure out what it was. Yet Thibodeau kept hammering away, driving the same lineup into the ground night after night. It was one of the most detrimental stretches of coaching I have seen in my entire life. The Knicks have seen worse coaches (Hi, David Fizdale!), plenty of them. But never has the franchise been harmed more by a coach’s stubbornness.

This season has to be different. It’s time we start figuring out who can play with who. We’ve only heard Fournier and Grimes as potential shooting guard options, but how well does Quickley fit between Brunson and Barrett? If Thibodeau doesn’t see him as a “true point guard,” is that not a natural spot for him? He’s certainly the best player of the three. I could do this forever. There are so many lineup combinations that increase the ceiling of this team. In a season where expectations are (relatively) low, isn’t it worth it to see what works best? Unfortunately, I believe the answer in Thibodeau’s mind will continue to be no. I hope I am proven wrong.

Why is Evan Fournier still here?

Rude. Fournier seems like a wonderful human being. I value his transparency and blunt honesty in press conferences. I also think he has become underrated as an offensive asset by Knick fans. The truth of the matter is, however, he is simply in the way. There is no reason for him to play more minutes than either of Grimes or Quickley.

So what do the Knicks do? Bench him? We know that’s not happening. It’s not in Thibs’ code and, even if the front office wants to trade him, we know they don’t trade for pennies on the dollar. They’d want to prop him up first. Good news! There is a very clear path to doing that: you bring him off of the bench.

Fournier is a sniper, but not in the way Reggie Bullock was. He is comfortable shooting on the move and craftier attacking close-outs. He also is capable of initiating in the pick-and-roll if he is starting from the side, where he more naturally creates advantages rather than moving north to south, where his shaky handle is exploited more. In the starting lineup, he will always be the fourth option. Despite being more skilled, he is stuck, mostly in the Bullock role. But if you stick him in the bench unit next to Rose, Quickley, Toppin, and Hartenstein, all of a sudden there is more of a need for his skill set. It is also easier to foresee him developing passing chemistry with Toppin and Hartenstein than he has with Randle and Robinson.

Lastly, Fournier’s biggest weakness, defense, is well documented. It’s not for a lack of effort, in fact most of his impressive defensive plays highlight his ability to read the opposing offense and react accordingly. He just is not physically capable of consistently being an impactful defender. That will be less of an issue facing opposing benches, which will consist of less opposing players capable of exploiting his weakness.

This is very simple, Knicks: bench Fournier, start Grimes. It is better for Grimes. It is better for the franchise. And, perhaps to the surprise of many, it is better for Evan Fournier.

Is Cam Reddish’s Knick career doomed?

I can’t sugarcoat it; Reddish’s preseason was brutal. While the first game was fantastic from Reddish, it doesn’t really change the fact that he’s been extremely inconsistent in the first three years of his NBA career.

One of my favorite Knicks creators, Jonathan Macri, said it best on a recent podcast, “it’s like he doesn’t know what coach he plays for.” Thibodeau desperately wants Cam to actualize the player he sees in him. Reddish is tall and lengthy, capable of guarding almost any player on the perimeter. His length allows him to be a pest on and off the ball. He has the physical tools to rain 3-pointers from any spot on the court and render close-outs useless. He also has the handle to attack said close-outs, get to the basket, and keep the Knicks’ offensive machine rolling.

But Reddish doesn’t see that for himself. Reddish fancies himself a star in the vein of a Paul George or, dare I say it, Kevin Durant (which was well on display vs. the Grizzlies, the shots just went in). You can tell he is itching to dance from midrange. And while his tools have manifested some impressive defensive possessions, there have also been unforgivable lapses, the types of which will never fly on a Tom Thibodeau basketball team. 

At this point, it is tough to have hope for him. At least here in New York. Reddish has the kinds of warts that a team is going to have to live with and coach out of him. But the only way to do that is for him to be allowed to make mistakes in the first place. Unfortunately, on this team, with this depth, a few mistakes will see you out of the rotation (unless your name is Elfrid Payton). Reddish is going to have to clean up those mistakes on his own and then capitalize on his next opportunity in the rotation. We’ll see if Wednesday was an aberration or a sign of things to come.

Can Jalen Brunson be an analytics-buster?

Here is a little background on me for those who do not know. I am a former professional poker player. I traveled and studied for almost 15 years. As someone with a strong mathematical background, I have always been the first to embrace and celebrate the infusion of analytics in sports.

Sometimes, however, I wonder if we have lost our way. It seems as though some have forgotten the point of sporting events. The point is to win the game. There is very little more infuriating to me than seeing a basketball team chuck 3-pointers up double digits late in a game. It wasn’t that long ago when we discovered that a 3-pointer has a higher EV (expected value) than most 2-pointers. Shooting 33.3% from three is about the same as shooting 50% from two! Perhaps even better because, statistically, an offense is more likely to get an offensive rebound on a three than a two.

But in the situation I presented, the EV of a shot is not as important as winEV. It is possible, or maybe even probable, that hitting a 2-point basket 45% of the time is better than hitting a 3-point basket 30% of the time, even if they have the same EV. Why? Because up 10 late in a basketball game, the only path to losing the game is going scoreless across multiple possessions. You are more likely to do that shooting the more volatile shots. As a favorite, you want to reduce variance and aim for the higher median possessions.

So what does this have to do with Jalen Brunson? Well, Brunson is the king of the midrange. He has one of the league’s highest floors for a scorer. For someone who shoots as efficiently as he does, from the spots that he does, slumps will be a rarity. This means that Brunson will be bringing something the Knicks have not had, save one Julius Randle season, since Carmelo Anthony. They don’t need to run hot from beyond the 3-point arc to close out games. No. They have a guy they can go to and get a safe bucket late in games. He can do it in the half court, against set defenses.

Brunson is so much more than just a scorer as a player. He is feisty, he has sharp vision,  especially driving to his strong hand. He fights for rebounds and he uses his frame to keep from being overpowered on defense. In the first game of the preseason, Cade Cunningham relentlessly tried to go at Brunson in the post, assuming his size would give him a large advantage. He was wrong. Brunson held his own every time, drawing three offensive fouls in his first game as a Knick. Brunson is a great player and brings a lot to the table. But more than anything, he gives the Knicks something Thibodeau has always wanted; a player to help him more comfortably control the outcomes of close games.

What is RJ Barrett’s ceiling?

You may have noticed I left Barrett’s name out of the question about young Knick players breaking through this season. That was not a slight. I just don’t consider Barrett, still just 22 years old, a part of the Knicks’ “young core.” First game struggles aside, I am so high on Barrett that I think this season will be the one when he stops being a young player with potential, and starts being a player worth noticing in the league. So what does that mean? How high can Barrett go? In my opinion, the league is his oyster. He has the size and the skill. He has displayed improved shooting form which has seen immediate results, shooting 50% from three and 81% from the free throw line this preseason.  

If you have read this far (thank you!), you are no stranger to Barrett’s strengths, so let’s take a minute and talk about where he can improve to reach that next level and beyond. The most obvious area for him is defense. He has the build to hold his own against the league’s premier wings. He has the quickness to stay in front of smaller guards when he is switched onto them. But something is missing on that end of the court. Sometimes it feels as though he is not entirely locked in and is easily susceptible to back cuts.

This might sound familiar, but I believe one solution to this problem is to insert Grimes into the starting lineup. Playing next to Brunson and Fournier, the entirety of the Knicks’ perimeter defensive burden falls on Barrett, as was shown when he was forced to draw Ja Morant as his assignment in the opener. That is a lot to ask of a young player who you also hope becomes an elite offensive player. Playing next to Grimes will allow Barrett to take a step back and use more energy per possession to shore up his leaks. Of course, Barrett can also meet the team halfway. While they can enhance his surroundings, he can also realize his weaknesses and fix them.

Offensively, he is much closer to being very good. The two areas I can pinpoint as his biggest areas of potential improvement are passing off the dribble (especially going right) and shooting from 5-19 feet. When he drives, he can sometimes have a one-track mind, which prevents him from seeing all of his reads. If he begins to force the defense to consider multiple options each time he gets two feet in the paint, he will have them right where he wants them. As far as midrange shooting goes, he is starting from such a low point I don’t think we need too much from him. But there has to be improvement. Last season he was one of the league’s least efficient scorers from that range (last season he was 93-292 from 5-15 feet, good for a disastrous 31.8% from that distance). 

Barrett has proven himself to be a hard worker. While he has yet to threaten any All-Star ballots, each season of his career he has come back showing subtle improvements. I think this is the season he breaks through and entrenches himself in the All-Star conversation.

What are the Knicks doing?

Fair question! NBA Purgatory is dark and full of terrors. Consistently winning between 30 and 45 games is a path to nowhere. I’m not sure there is a team in the league trying harder to make the play-in this season than your New York Knicks. They are one of the few teams in the league without a realistic chance at Victor Wembanyama or an appearance in the Conference Finals. At what point will this team stop trying to have its cake and eat it too?

Buckle up Strickland fans, because I’m about to spin this positive. I don’t think the Knicks need to go with a full-on youth movement to embrace their youth. I think Thibodeau has proven himself to be one of the league’s better coaches in terms of developing young talent. Trusting and deploying that talent? That’s another story. But it is undeniable that our young players have, across the board, improved under Thibodeau’s watch. 

I think this season will be the ultimate show-me season for the front office. With Brunson, there are no more excuses. Another season like last will not be accepted. Will this one look exactly like we want? Probably not. But whose team does? So I want to end this by preaching a bit more patience. The direction of this team will present itself one way or the other by the end of this season. Believe in our young players. Believe in our coaching staff. Believe in our front office to react correctly to the events that come to fruition. No matter what, believe in the love you have for this team. There is a reason we all remain so disproportionally passionate about this maddening franchise. 

Go Knicks.