2021-22 Knicks Season Preview: Alec Burks
Previously a journeyman, Alec Burks perhaps found his home for the future last season when he signed a one-year deal with the Knicks, later re-upping on a two-year pact this summer. Could Burks come close to replicating his nearly historic pull-up shooting numbers from last season?
A man of many talents, an unheralded steal of a signing last year, a quiet assassin. Alec Burks, the 30-year-old veteran swingman, had perhaps the best year of his career in 2020-21.
While he had a fine journeyman year with Golden State and Sacramento in the bubble, the stone-faced shooter improved upon his 2020 field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, and 3-point rate as a Knick. He was, aside from Julius Randle, the only other Knick who brought both shot creation and a reliable jumper to the table — a key intersection for offensive success. He did this while actually being passable on defense as well, a rarity in his career so far, which resulted in vast improvement to his net rating compared to the year prior. Almost every single catch-all metric I could find also tabbed him as having a better year this past season.
The main reason is his aforementioned jumper. Look at this shit:
Oh, that sweet, sweet jumper. Designed in a lab in the early- to mid-2000s, and software updated for contemporary hoops to the tune of 9.8 threes per 100 possessions, by far the highest number of his career. The Missouri Maestro was legitimately on fire for the whole season. A few of those numbers from Ariel’s tweet are insane — namely the pull-up shooting, which was legitimately elite. Shooting 47% on pull-ups on good volume is a Steph Curry number. He also shot 47% on threes from the left wing. Another insane number: he shot a blistering 64% from the left corner, a favorite camping spot where he could wait for Randle kick-outs and take a break from creating his own shots.
The other noteworthy thing about his play was his adaptability. Burks embraced a multitude of roles for Coach Thibs, playing 25 minutes a game and often finding himself on the court for high leverage moments.
His shot creation earned him crunchtime minutes despite not starting and sometimes not even being the first or second sub. At times he was the sole source of shot creation in non-Julius lineups, both with starters like RJ Barrett as well as with bench units. Other times, when Elfrid Payton finally rendered himself unplayable in endgame situations, Thibs even turned to AB as the point guard rather than the precocious neophyte Immanuel Quickley. Credit to Thibs is due here. He tends to be quite a stickler for rigid role assignments, but bucked that trend by using Burks as an ever-morphing bio-weapon. Burks embraced, and flourished, in all of these roles.
So what can we expect from AB in his encore with the Knicks? Surely, SURELY, he will regress a bit as a shooter. Even Steph himself would regress from 47% on pull-ups.
Well, you won’t get an argument from me — some jump shooting regression may well be in the tank. Additionally, he may be in line for a role reduction with Evan Fournier replacing Reggie Bullock, Quickley presumably continuing to improve and thus eating some 2-guard minutes, and the Kemba/Rose tandem evaporating any potential Point-Burks time.
And yet...
AB is nothing if not flexible. Yes, the new role(s) might be smaller, but he might actually be able to shine brighter still. We’ve actually seen AB take on different roles even before joining the Knicks, which holds the key if he should continue to improve next year.
For example: the year before last, 10% of his offense was derived from off-ball movement (cuts and shooting off screens). That was halved on the Knicks.
More importantly, consider this: 15% of his shots were from 0-3 feet on the Knicks. Not a surprise given the spacing issues and his preference for his excellent pull-up shooting over his so-so finishing. However, as a de-facto top option on the weird Bubble Warriors team that had spacing but missed Steph a bunch, that number was 21%. In his short stint with the Cavs, 35%. His year prior with Utah and Cleveland? Twenty-nine percent. Those are all legitimately great numbers — most star wings, for example, hover around 20% (albeit because defenses wall up versus them). NBA.com confirms this, with his drives per game all higher on those teams. His free throws attempted per 100 possessions in NY was 4.7 — the first time he dipped below five in his decade of NBA play. Indeed, old-timey armchair draftniks like myself may recall that upon entering the league, he was more of an early-2000s type slashing guard with both a questionable shot and questionable shot selection, averaging only 31% from three in two collegiate years and not clearing 80% from the free throw line in the NBA until his third season.
He’ll have more spacing than ever next year with our new shooters, and with that spacing will be the potential to couple his jump shooting with more forays to the rim. Even last year, we can look at his pre/post All-Star Game splits to do some back of the napkin math on “life with lots of Elf” vs. “life with a little bit less Elf” (and with fully operational RJ/Julius/Bullock 3-point fusillades every game): his TS% jumped from 55 to 57, and his slash line from 40/40/84 to 43/43/87. My fellow Strickland scribe Stacy confirmed this by looking at his stats with Elfrid vs. without Elfrid as well:
The Knicks of the future are an even better setting for Burks Bombs than the Knicks of yesteryear, and I for one fully expect more fourth quarter avalanches from the Missouri Mamba, even if he descends from Mt. Olympus-level shooting and settles in around the peaks of the Adirondacks. What role will his buckets come in? I am not quite sure yet. However, his gift for playing different parts, coupled with the Knicks’ legitimate lack of real swingman bench players will ensure that his minutes aren’t reduced too much, even if his role is subject to change. Versatility is the name of the game in the modern NBA, and it is time for us as fans to join the front office in recognizing AB’s shape shifting as a key part of this team moving forward.
