2021-2022 New York Knicks: A State of the Union

The Knicks sit just a game back from where they were this time a year ago, often going almost game-for-game with last year’s squad to this point. So why does this year feel so much worse thus far?

Attention Knick fans! We have officially passed the halfway point of the season. Despite a rocky first 45 games, the Knicks sit just one game below where they did at this point last season, one viewed as an overwhelming success. So, what is different about this season? Why does it feel so much worse than last season did? And is it too late for things to change? With a little help from one of the greatest television shows of all time, I am going to tackle those questions and tell the unfinished story of the 2021-2022 New York Knicks.

”The thing about the old days; they the old days.”

You’d think that if any fanbase was aware of this, it would be fans of the New York Knicks. The Knicks have not won a championship since 1973. My father was 10 years old. The Knicks have not made the NBA Finals since 1999, when I was nine years old. They have won one single playoff series since the turn of the century. Yet each October, Knick fans wipe their brains and remain committed to this painstakingly infuriating franchise, determined to hold on to the hope that maybe, just maybe, we won’t have to wait until our unborn children are ten years old until the next championship appearance.

Last season was a wonderfully random piece of history, but, looking back, there were many reasons to believe it was just a flash in the pan. Julius Randle, New York’s maligned star coming off arguably the worst season of his career, produced like a top 15 player in the NBA. Better yet, he did things even those most optimistic about his trajectory never thought he would be capable of. Randle posted the third-highest true shooting percentage (TS%) of his career (56.7%), despite just over 66% of his field goal attempts coming from outside of 10 feet. For comparison, in his single season playing in New Orleans — the season responsible for the Knicks signing him in the first place — Randle’s TS% was 60% with 72% of his shots coming inside of 10 feet. Randle of 2020-2021 put on a shooting masterclass, emphasized by shooting 41% from three on 5.5 attempts a game. 

The regression candidates did not end there. The Knicks ended last season third in the league in defensive rating. The reasons for pessimism about this season’s Knicks defense started, once again, with Randle, who gave the defensive effort of his life last season for 71 games. As someone who once won an MVP for a basketball team without much talent (granted, at a much lower level) I can understand how the circumstances of last season would optimize Randle’s sense of urgency. Head coach Tom Thibodeau built the team to be Randle’s. Every possession he wanted belonged to him. In a way, that hones your senses. When the Knicks brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to replace Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock, they expected, and were prepared to live with, a slight dip defensively. What they may not — and perhaps should have — been expecting, was how a reduced offensive role would impact Randle defensively.

“We ain’t gotta dream no more, we got real shit.”

Nevertheless, Knicks fans entered the 2021-2022 season with unwavering optimism. There was a near-universal belief that the Knicks would seamlessly add to the foundation they built last season. After all, how couldn’t they? They won 41 games with an extremely flawed roster. They kept the good pieces; including players like Randle, R.J. Barrett, Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, and Alec Burks. They were getting a full season of recently bulked-up Mitchell Robinson, who missed the last half of last season. And they added two players in Walker and Fournier who, in a vacuum, were *clear* upgrades over their predecessors. Las Vegas Sportsbooks set the preseason over/under at 41.5 games. This was disrespectful. The only question in Knicks’ fans minds was, would they win 50?

And for six games, it looked like we were right. The Knicks opened the season looking as if they had not missed a beat. Through those six games they were in possession of first place in the Eastern Conference, sitting at 5-1. Better yet, they had victories over the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, and Chicago Bulls, two division rivals and another former rival who became re-tied to the Knicks in the offseason. In the fifth win, a victory at New Orleans, 21-year-old RJ Barrett put up a masterpiece with 35 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. As Darth Vader once said, everything was going to plan. 

“You want it to be one way, but it’s the other way”

Despite the strong start, the cracks in the team that would come to define the first half of this season presented themselves early on. Most specifically, the starters could not find their footing together. Sitting at 8-7 after 15 games, Julius Randle had a positive +/- in just five of those games. And while single game +/- is often noisy, in this case it was representative of a unit that was not working. 

But still, the Knicks were 8-7. That’s not so bad, right? Once they turned it around a little bit and Thibodeau started playing the right guys the correct minutes, everything would turn around. And this year, we wouldn’t have to wait! After a season of letting Elfrid Payton sort out his struggles, Thibodeau knew Knick fans were going to have little patience this time around. So, 19 games into the season, Kemba Walker was taken out of the rotation. The Knicks responded by going 3-7 in the next 10 games, none of which Walker stepped foot on the court.

What both Thibodeau and Knicks fans realized at that time was that this was bigger than just one player. We live in both a hot take and instant gratification society. Compounded by rooting for a team that plays in New York, and what you get is a world where every game creates a new narrative. And with each loss came a new one. Thibodeau needs to try Obi Toppin at center. Immanuel Quickley should be the starting point guard. The Knicks should trade Randle. And on and on we went. What this highlighted, to me, is an issue that is going to come to define this New York Knicks team.

“That sounds like one of them good problems”

Look at this and tell me what you see. 

Because what I see is at least 14 players who have shown the Knicks, at some capacity, they are worth playing. In a season filled with COVID absences, rotations and roles have been flimsy, which means we’ve seen a multitude of variations of lineups. The only consistency has been inconsistency. On Dec. 16, the Knicks traveled to Houston to play the struggling Rockets. On that night, Miles “Deuce” McBride, likely the 13th or 14th man on the roster, played 35 minutes. He had 15 points, 9 assists, and 4 steals. Despite playing without Barrett, Walker, and the refreshing Quentin Grimes, the Knicks won handily.

Thibodeau has always preached sacrifice and staying ready. In a way, it’s probably his greatest attribute as a coach. He has developed an earned trust amongst the players he coaches, so, for the most part, guys have stayed ready in his short tenure in New York. But the beast Thibodeau is facing this season is unlike any he’s faced before. There are no easy answers. The only way to know who the rotation fixtures should be for sure would be to experiment with different combinations. But for anyone who has paid attention, we know that solution is not one that’s going to come easily, or at all.

“A man’s gotta have a code.”

Tom Thibodeau was hired by Salem State in 1981. He took a job with the expansion Minnesota Timberwolves in 1989. He has coached in the NBA, in some capacity, every year of his life since then except one. He is unmarried, claiming nothing would ever be able to matter more to him than basketball. I know these things to matter for two reasons; 1) Someone who devotes this much time to their craft is likely going to be as knowledgeable and informed as just about anyone you’ll ever meet. So a certain benefit of the doubt is important when assessing his performance. And 2) Someone who devotes this much time to their craft is going to be very, VERY, set in their ways.

Every person has a code. Even if you don’t know it, you have certain unwritten rules that guide your actions. In the 13 months I’ve watched Tom Thibodeau coach a basketball team I have learned three things about his code: 1) he needs a rim protector; 2) he wants a point guard who can penetrate the defense; 3) he is extremely rigid in his rotations. 

During his tenure, this code has defined the Knicks, for better or worse. The Knicks won 41 games in a shortened season last year because of that code. You may think this unnecessarily removes credit from Randle, but Thibodeau tasked Randle with coming to camp in the best shape of his life and, after he did, entrusted him with the keys to his new car. Randle deserves a world of credit for what he did last season, but I am not convinced it happens without Thibodeau. 

Unfortunately, you could probably argue that the Knicks are underperforming expectations this season because of that code as well. Thibodeau’s code is the direct cause of some of the uninspiring rotation decisions we’ve seen this year. The Knicks’ three best players, by net rating, are Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin. Rose has Thibodeau’s trust; he would play him all 48 minutes each night if he could. But Quickley, and to a much greater degree, Toppin, have yet to do so. 

This may seem unfair. Quickley is averaging a respectable 22.5 minutes per game (MPG). And, despite a logjam at the guard position, his role is anything but a secondary option when he is on the court. But Quickley, just 22 years old, also defines the rigidness of Thibodeau’s outlook. Because he doesn’t get into the paint at will, Thibodeau, and many others, do not see him as a “true point guard.” So in a season that has seen Rose miss almost half of it due to injury, Walker benched for 10 games and injured for 10 more, Quickley has started just two games as the team’s point guard. 

I’m not here to convince you that Quickley is a point guard. What I will attempt to convince you is that the New York Knicks are a better basketball team when Quickley is on the court. To go along with that, Thibodeau’s rotation scheme is exceptionally polarizing. Whether you start or come off the bench plays a huge determining factor in how many minutes you play. Take Alec Burks, who has started 17 games and come off the bench 24. In those 17 games he started, he played 36 MPG. In the 24 games he’s come off the bench, that number dips down to just over 21. It’s a simple if/then equation; if you want the team to play its most impactful players more, then you should want Quickley in the starting lineup.

Which brings us to Toppin. If you ever needed proof of the length of an NBA season, remember this; there was a time in this Knicks season when he was the lone bright spot. Obi started this season on fire. Seemingly every time he stepped foot on the floor he made an impact. Better yet, he did so in a way that felt unique to him, like if the Knicks wanted that aspect of a basketball game they needed him on the court. But, because of his code, Thibodeau rarely acquiesced. In 35 games, Obi Toppin has played over 20 minutes in a game that Randle also played in just seven times. Thibodeau needs elite rim protection. So, to him, Toppin and Randle’s minutes are zero sum. Under that paradigm, I understand Toppin’s minutes distribution. This team’s ceiling lies in Randle. I just can’t help but wish Thibodeau would alter his perspective on this one thing; in 90 minutes on the court together, Randle and Toppin lineups have a 110.9 ORTG, and a 104.6 DRTG. 

Of course, there is an alternative scenario. Perhaps Thibodeau is only who he is because of his code. Maybe all of the stuff that he does that made us fall in love with him as a coach, that’s won him multiple Coach of the Year trophies, is not mutually exclusive from the few things he does that drive us crazy. I’m not sure I believe it. After all, shouldn’t you be open to things that have proven to bring your team more success? Isn’t that the ultimate goal?

“Don’t matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war, and now there ain’t no going back. I mean, shit, it’s what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it’s a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight.”

I can’t say it any better than that. If there is one thing we can all agree on it is this; we all want the Knicks to succeed. Most of even the most heated debates within Knicks nation are grounded by that sentiment. If you read this far you must be incredibly passionate, just as I am. Maybe you think I’m an idiot, maybe you think I’m a genius, maybe your opinion falls somewhere in between. But at the end of the day, we all want one thing.

Which is why, despite my personal reservations about some of the things I discussed above, I can’t help but face a second half of the season, in which the Knicks possess one of the league’s toughest schedules, with a heavy feeling of optimism. The Knicks might have just dropped two in a row, but prior to that, they had won three straight games, including one against the streaking Dallas Mavericks. Their 21-year-old is quickly looking like the rising star many thought they’d see after that fantastic Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. That day felt like ages ago. But Barrett, and the Knicks’ rise, feels right on the horizon.