2021-22 Knicks Season Preview: Derrick Rose
Derrick Rose was the midseason mercenary of the 2020-21 Knicks, proving to be their X-factor down the stretch of the regular season. With major investment into the point guard position this summer, how will his role change this season?
After a mediocre half-season in Detroit, Derrick Rose’s stock was at an all-time low around the league. His counting stats looked fine (the abundance of available shots on the tanking Pistons certainly helped), but he was near the bottom of the league as a finisher, wasn’t shooting the ball well, and seemed disinterested at times. There’s a reason the Pistons were willing to ship him off for anything they could get, even if that ended up being 20 games of Dennis Smith Jr. (now a Trailblazer), and a second round pick (used to shed Mason Plumlee’s money).
As soon as he touched down in New York, Rose looked rejuvenated: he wasn’t quite vintage D-Rose, but a barrage of drives, floaters, and even an improved 3-point stroke (41% from deep, which would be his career high over a full season) suggested that he has a lot left in the tank. This was only made more evident during the Knicks’ playoff series vs. Atlanta, when he was clearly the best Knick on the floor. His sudden rebirth in New York gave Leon Rose and the Knicks no choice, as they re-upped Rose on a 2+1 contract worth about $14 million annually.
After making a moderate-to-long-term investment into a veteran point guard like Rose, you wouldn’t expect the Knicks to double (or triple!) down on the position, but that’s exactly what they did: rescuing Kemba Walker from the bowels of Chesapeake Arena after spending meaningful draft capital on Rokas Jokubaitis and Deuce McBride a week prior. To be fair, I don’t think the Knicks expected Walker to be on the market for cheap; Sam Presti is notorious for not buying players out, usually opting to squeeze as many 2026 seconds out of their value as possible. So I’m not critiquing the process here, and I think each individual move was a sound one. But it does beg the question: how will Thibs get everyone on the court?
Assuming McBride makes the final roster, there will be four point guards vying for rotational minutes at the 1: Deuce, Kemba, Rose, and Immanuel Quickley. Even if we assume McBride redshirts his rookie campaign, there’s a clear roster crunch here (with Quentin Grimes potentially eating into some shooting guard minutes as well). Kemba should, and will, be the starter; he’s currently the best option of that group, and Rose found a groove as the sixth man last season anyway. Rose was able to play 27 minutes off the bench last year, only because the Knicks’ starting point guard wasn’t exactly earning his minutes, but that “luxury'' doesn't exist this year. Without getting too deep into the math, a starting backcourt of Kemba/Fournier should burn 60 of the 96 available guard minutes. That leaves 18 each for Quickley and Rose, barring some funky lineup combinations like Fournier at the 3. These numbers are only estimates, but it’s fair to say that Rose will see a reduced role this year.
But is that necessarily a bad thing? Rose did a lot of things well last season, but he’s not getting younger, and his elite-level shotmaking can’t be expected again this year. He shot 49% from midrange and 51% from long midrange in 2020; he’s always had a good floater, but that long midrange percentage is prime Chris Paul caliber. And while Rose has improved as a 3-point shooter in the later stages of his career, becoming a consistent 41% shooter would be a massive leap. Taking some scoring burden off Rose’s plate could be a way to adjust for the small regression that figures to be coming, especially from midrange. If he can turn some of those long floaters and 18-footers into creation opportunities for other players, it would be mutually beneficial for both Rose and the team.
Rose sticking to the bench unit would also help with the development of Obi Toppin, who he built clear rapport with last year. There were too many times when Obi leaked out on the break for a wide open lob, only for Alec Burks to inexplicably miss him and allow the defense to get set. Even if Rose isn’t in the upper echelon of passers in the league, he’s good enough to get a dynamic finisher like Toppin involved. The on/off numbers for the pair are off the charts: the duo played to a +17.0 +/- per 100 possessions, by far the best 2-man combination for both Obi and Derrick. Although this wasn’t in a huge sample size, 330 minutes is significant enough to be excited about the pair moving forward. So while it doesn’t seem likely that Toppin has a future in New York, showing that he can be a functional offensive player would do wonders for his trade value.
It’s clear that Rose will be a vital part of any potential Knicks success this season. Whether that means a bench role, or spending time as a spot starter (Kemba isn’t likely to go the full 82), he’ll be a consistent contributor, able to steady the ship when the starters come out cold, and provide a veteran presence to the sophomores coming off the bench with him.
