2021-22 Knicks Season Preview: Julius Randle

One of the biggest surprise success stories in Knicks history, Julius Randle completely turned around not just himself, but New York’s fortunes in 2020-21. How will he build upon it in 2021-22 with a new, more capable cast of supporting characters on offense?

Prior to the 2020-21 season, it seemed like Julius Randle wasn’t long for New York. A tough 2019-20 season saw Randle become the primary target for Knicks fans’ ire. An unprecedented career turnaround in the 2020 season led to Randle being the first Knicks player named to an All-NBA team since Carmelo Anthony in 2013, and the Knicks making the playoffs for the first time since that same season.

However, Randle’s catastrophic performance in the playoffs last season left some lingering questions regarding his capacity to repeat (or improve on) his All-NBA season last year. Any such doubts should be put to bed — since the 2000-2001 season, there have been 105 players named to the All-NBA Second Team, as Randle was last season. Twenty-three of those 105 players never made the All-NBA Second team again (First, Third, and All-Defense teams aside for the moment). Three of those 23 were players on the tail ends of their prime, Dikembe Mutombo in 2001, Gary Payton in 2002, and Sam Cassell in 2004. Of the remaining 20 players, just four failed to have at least one other All-NBA caliber season — Elton Brand, Isaiah Thomas, Chris Bosh, and Pascal Siakam. Brand and Thomas both suffered severe injuries following their All-NBA seasons. Bosh made 11 All-Star teams in his Hall of Fame career, leaving just Siakam, who has plenty of time at just 27 years old to get more All-NBA seasons under his belt.

All of this is to say that seasons of the caliber of Randle's 2020-21 campaign are rarely, if ever, aberrations. The Knicks, who signed Randle to a four-year, $117 million extension this offseason, seem to agree. Despite his struggles against the Hawks, I feel comfortable projecting another very, very good season from Randle. That’s in part because of how strong he was a year ago, and the fact that the Knicks have upgraded the spots around Randle — to the point where the way Atlanta defended Randle last season, sending multiple defenders to the ball and ignoring the offensive zeroes of Nerlens Noel/Taj Gibson and Elfrid Payton, won’t be feasible.

In his media day press conference, Randle stated that he “over-complicated” what he thought was a simple Atlanta defense. This is also true. Moving forward for Randle (and the Knicks), less will likely be more. Randle will again shoulder the brunt of defenses, but scaling back (or changing) Randle’s usage just a bit should open paths of less resistance for the Knicks’ offense.

The roster changes should serve to help Randle generate easier shots. According to the Basketball Index, the lineups that Randle played alongside during the 2020-21 season ranked in the 53rd percentile in finishing, the 18th percentile in playmaking, and the 51st percentile in spacing. Using Basketball Index’s Lineup Creator Tool, we can find out that the Knicks’ likely starting lineup (Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Randle, and Mitchell Robinson) would rank in the 35th percentile in rim finishing, the 77th for playmaking, and the 85th for spacing.

The hope is that the Knicks’ newest additions in Fournier and Walker allow Randle to isolate less and play a bit more within the flow of an offense. In 2020, just 46% of Randle’s shots were assisted, 97th percentile among bigs according to Cleaning the Glass. When looking at just his threes, 79% of his made shots from deep were assisted, second among bigs with at least 150 threes attempted this season (first was reigning Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was assisted on just 30% of his made threes, but Randle shot 11% better from deep on over 100 more attempts).

One of the easiest and most obvious ways for the Knicks to get Randle efficient shots is in the pick-and-roll. Walker is far and away the best pick-and-roll ball handler Randle will have played with since the 2018-19 season, when he played with Jrue Holiday. Last season, Walker scored .92 points per possession as a PnR ball handler. In Randle’s season with Holiday, Jrue was at .96 PPP, and in that season, Randle scored 1.28 points per possession as a roll man (99th percentile), with 1.6 roll man possessions per 75. In his All-Star campaign, Randle rolled on just 13% of his screens, while popping 73% and slipping 14% of them.

While Randle will primarily be used as a screener in PnR, I would like to see Thibs use Randle as a ball handler in inverse PnR next season. While Randle was used this way somewhat last season (NBA Stats says he got about 1.5 possessions a game as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last season), I’d like to see that part of Randle’s game more, especially when playing alongside Walker and Immanuel Quickley. Walker was used this way in Boston by Brad Stevens, generating an 85th percentile for pop Impact per 75 in 2020-21 on 49th percentile screening frequency.

Specifically, I like this pseudo-snug pick-and-pop, where Randle initiates around the elbow, and Quickley pops way out to three.

In addition to easier scoring opportunities, I expect the Knicks to leverage Randle’s playmaking abilities even more this season. Fournier is the obvious replacement for Bullock in the Bullock-Randle DHO that was a staple of the Knicks’ offense, and both Fournier and Walker should get a lot of looks like those in the clips below.

Last season, Randle led the league in minutes played, with 2,667, and led by over 150 minutes (second was RJ Barrett at 2,511), and Randle led in minutes per game too, at 37.6 (Fred VanVleet was second with 36.5). Expect Randle to shoulder a massive minutes load again (this is a Thibs-coached team), but hopefully an overall stronger roster can give Randle a few extra minutes of rest every game.

Last season, Randle changed the trajectory of his career, and at the same time, the Knicks. His surprise All-NBA campaign earned him a massive extension, and the love of Knicks fans. But with those come expectations – expectations Randle seems primed to live up to, and hopefully, even exceed.