2021 NBA Draft Profile: Tre Mann

A talented shot creator who finished them at a high rate, Tre Mann profiles as a very useful player in today’s NBA. But will being an undersized combo guard that’s not particularly good at defense limit his ceiling in the NBA?

Position: Point guard, Florida

Age: 20 (2/3/2001)

Height: 6 ft 3 in (w/o shoes)

Wingspan: 6 ft 4 in

Weight: 178 lbs.

Strickland 2021 Big Board Rank: 17

The Sales Pitch: Tre Mann in one clichéd-and-yet-too-accurate-to-pass-up-using term here is “swaggy as hell.” Mann’s combination of ball handling, change-of-direction ability, and feel for using screens translated to elite space creation at the college level. Going under is not an option against him, and yet with his moves, handle, and anticipation, he can handcuff players around screens and get anywhere he wants on the perimeter and midrange. Of course, what good is shot creation if you can’t make shots?

Well, the good news is Mann is also a terrific shooter. Mann put up a 46/40/83 shooting line to the tune of 16 points per game, and the bulk of these shots were unassisted (including a very nice 69% of his 3-point attempts). He created threes and he took them (and made them at volume), averaging a solid 7.4 attempts per 100 possessions. Mann’s solid floater game also helps keep defenses honest in drop coverage. With his mastery of shooting and screen navigation, he was able to unlock passing ability out of the pick-and-roll. In ways that (painfully for some Knicks fans, yours truly included) may remind some of another Tr(a)e, Mann’s gravity and ability to manipulate defenders opens up a lot of passing lanes. Although his stats don’t bear it out, he has flashed creativity and ambition as a passer, though he does need to continue to improve as a decision-maker. All in all, on offense, Mann brings an intriguing amount of ball-handling ability, shooting, strong instincts, and passing accuracy to the table. Add to this the fact that he has solid size for a point guard at 6-foot-3, and you have a very intriguing prospect.

Elite Traits/Skills: Perimeter space creation, ball handling, pull-up shooting, pick-and-roll creation

The Devil’s Advocate argument: Mann does not have ideal size for a shooting guard, but he also is not particularly great at attacking and finishing at the rim. With limited burst and vertical athleticism, Mann is not going to be a Ja Morant type. His craft and handle allow him get to his spots, but similarly to Immanuel Quickley, he’s significantly better at getting paint touches than he is at generating layups. This works in college, but at the highest levels, defenses can take away the lob by having a big sit in drop coverage, send aggressive defenders over screens, and force a diet of floaters. Floaters are certainly part of Mann’s bag, but you can’t make a living off of them in the NBA unless defenses at least have to respect your ability to finish at the rim. Mann right now is skinny, lacks explosion, and doesn’t have elite size, so this will be an issue. His free throw rate of 0.303 bodes well, but he will have to continue to gain strength and figure out creative ways to finish below the rim to be a three-level threat at the next level. In addition, given his lack of size and athletic gifts, Tre does not project to be a plus or even neutral defender at the NBA level, though it’s worth noting that he posted a steal rate over two in both seasons at Florida, and he has solid instincts. His physical shortcomings will likely be more of a barrier to defensive neutrality than feel.

The Misconceptions: Though Mann did have some puzzling turnovers and was inconsistent when playing point guard full-time at Florida, it’s a misconception to suggest that he isn’t capable of advanced reads as a passer. My take is that Mann’s decision making had more to do with being overly ambitious than it did with a lack of feel. He plays with pace, he has terrific vision, and he’s able to make difficult passes look easy with both hands and off a live dribble. I do think he’s more of a very good passer for a 2 guard than a true point guard, but the vision, skill, and gravity to open up passing lanes should make him an effective playmaker, certainly against bench units. 

Important numbers:

40.3: 3-point shooting percentage. Elite numbers at moderate-to-high volume

0.307: Free throw rate

69%: Percent of Mann’s threes that were unassisted. For comparison, only 16% of Immanuel Quickley’s 3-pointers at Kentucky were unassisted. For Mann to shoot at an elite level given that level of self-creation is highly impressive.

21.9%: Mann’s assist rate. This is on the lower end for what you’d like to see from a point guard prospect, but it’s still solid and within range. He has to make strides as a decision-maker, but the idea that he could never be a starting point guard is overstated

7.0: Mann’s box plus-minus. Florida wasn’t a great team, but Mann’s number shows his impact goes beyond scoring isolation buckets. He makes his team better

58% and 26%: Mann’s true shooting percentage and usage rate. He was asked to do a lot, but had plus efficiency

0.85: Mann’s assist to usage ratio. While his reputation is as a scorer, Mann did a good job of balancing his role as a distributor and scorer

Knicks Fit: Good. Shot creation was a big sore spot for the Knicks when they were trying to keep up with Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, and the rest of the Atlanta Hawks’ perimeter threats. Mann would be the best screen manipulator on the Knicks from Day 1, and his ability to change speeds and direction, handle the ball, and pull up on a dime would be a plus, even with the addition of Luca Vildoza and additional growth from Quickley. To those who might wonder if it makes sense to add another combo guard pull-up shooter when the Knicks already have Quickley, I’d ask: Why you are against adding good players?

On the other hand, ideally Mann would have the ability to attack the rim at volume to unlock his full potential as a creator. Given his physical tools, this may be more of a long shot. I’d still be okay with having two high-volume pull-up shooters who can pass well enough to keep defenses honest… but the Knicks do need someone who can scramble defenses and put pressure at all three levels, and Tre isn’t there just yet.