2022 NBA Draft Profile: Chet Holmgren
Generally considered the consensus top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, could the mold-breaking big Chet Holmgren give the Knicks a game-changer if they move up in the draft lottery?
Position: PF/C, Gonzaga
Age: 20
Height: 7 ft
Wingspan: 7 ft 6 in
Weight: 195 lbs
The Sales Pitch: Chet warps the court on both ends, every second of every minute he plays. On defense, he is an elite rim protector who has feasted on overly-ambitious prospects who thought they could test him at the hoop for years. As a power forward at Gonzaga, he was lurking in the back of the minds of opposing ball handlers even when he was up 10, 15 feet away. Despite his skinny frame, his athleticism and length lets him bound across the court effortlessly to singlehandedly shrink space for opposing teams and vacuum rebounds. On offense, he is a legitimately great shooter who settled for a minimized role to accommodate upperclassmen teammates, scoring chiefly off of transition opportunities, put-backs, and dump-offs. And score efficiently he did — no one was a better play finisher than him at the rim. He also sees the game well, and isn’t afraid of using his own gravity to set up teammates with gifted passing and screening. So to sum up: great at taking and making the most efficient shots in the game, and great at stopping opposing teams from taking and making those same shots.
Elite Traits/Skills: Length, rim protection, offensive and defensive processing, shooting for his height
The Devil’s Advocate Argument: He hasn’t had a history of injuries, but with young, frail, and tall players you have to price in an injury risk. And he’s the skinniest of them all — unprecedentedly so. Any top pick is someone you want to be able to play for your franchise for years at a high level, so it should be a consideration. On top of that, if you take a player like Chet high, you are banking on him being more than just a top-notch play finisher in order, and he didn’t showcase much of that at Gonzaga in a weaker conference. All-NBA candidates make the league go round, and if he tops out as Very Good Finisher and rim protector — while not a bad outcome — it is likely far from All-NBA, and therefore might be a wasted chance for a team with a top three pick to aim a bit higher.
The Misconceptions: He’s a great high-floor play finisher. No one really talks about upside with Chet, despite every other prospect eliciting imaginative hypotheticals about what they could be. What if Chet gets to 210 lbs.? What if Chet actually leans into using his height for un-blockable midrange shots when he needs to create a bucket? What does he look like as a 7-foot ball handler who can call for a screen and both pass and shoot using it?
Important Numbers:
69%: His TS% at Gonzaga. Elite
60/39/72: His slash line
11: The number of midrange jumpers he took, all season
53%: His FG% on post-ups
80%: His FG% on shots around the rim, not including post-ups
6.6: Number of threes per 100 possessions, a figure which will likely rise in the NBA
12.6%: His block percentage
15: His Box plus/minus, a figure that puts him in historically great company (think Zion)
Knicks Fit: Some may worry about the risk of injury. Some may worry about him being Kristaps 2.0. Others may see a player who can play the 5 and open up the floor for wings and guards while locking down the paint, or pair with another 5 to form a Cleveland-esque Allen-and-Mobley style lockdown duo. I see a player who can score, a lot and efficiently, while making his teammates better for years to come. Versatility, modernity, and efficiency aren’t words associated with the Knicks; Chet would bring all three.
