2022 NBA Draft Profile: Keegan Murray

Maybe out of the Knicks’ range, maybe a trade-up candidate, one thing is for certain about Keegan Murray: he was one of the most productive players in college basketball last season.

Position: F, Iowa

Age: 21 

Height: 6 ft 8 in

Wingspan: 6 ft 11 in

Weight: 225 lbs

The Sales Pitch: Keegan Murray has prototypical size, strength, and athleticism for a forward with the production to match. After showing flashes as a freshman, Keegan broke out as a sophomore, leading the Big Ten in transition and becoming a versatile offensive weapon in transition, spotting up, cutting to the basket, and posting up. Despite not having a ton of NBA talent, Iowa finished fourth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, and Keegan was the biggest reason why. Perhaps the most intriguing part of Keegan’s offensive game is how he can get buckets in a variety of ways without needing to dominate the ball. While he’s more adept as a spot-up shooter, he showed the ability to come off screens and hop into jump shots, get to the basket and finish over length, and post up and shoot over smaller defenders. He also generally made quick decisions and is a solid passer as well. In transition, he’s terrific at running the floor and has the ball handling ability to grab and go. On defense, he is a really good events generator, showing the ability to contest shots and jump passing lanes, where he can be a one-man fast break. Overall, you won’t find many better bets to be a consistent, long-term contributor on both ends who can fit into a variety of lineups and doesn’t need actions schemed for him or to dominate the ball to be very productive on offense. 

Elite Traits/Skills: Versatility, strength

The Devil’s Advocate Argument: Keegan lacks the burst and shiftiness with the ball in his hands to create space in the half court. While he is a skilled play finisher, he is not going to do much self creation. His ball handling is solid, but he doesn’t have a true bag, and he lacks the ability to sneak into small cracks in the defense to get to the rim. While Murray posted nice steal and block rates, he lacks the size and athleticism to be a true rim protector, and he did suffer from lapses off ball. Iowa’s defense finished 80th in KenPom, and while Keegan flashed some nice versatility and switching ability, teams with elite shutdown wings don’t finish 80th in defense. Murray is not that, though he should be a plus defender. Lastly, he’ll also be 22 when his rookie season starts, so there is some question on the upside compared to some of the other prospects in his draft range.    

The Misconceptions: “Keegan is a safe role player pick who lacks upside.” There are pathways for Murray to scale up, even as an on-ball creator. Improving his pull-up game and ball handling at his size can open up more forays to the rim as defenders have to worry about more counters than the one spin move he uses right now. Furthermore, he has another level he can reach as a defender due to his strength, athleticism, and size. He could be a guy that could switch 1-4 with more time in the gym, perhaps even a small ball 5 against certain teams.  

Important Numbers:

• 23.5: Murray’s average points per game as a sophomore. He also scored 40 per 100 possessions, higher than anyone else in the lottery

• 8.5: Murray’s 3-pointers attempted per 100 (pretty good: noted shooter Immanuel Quickley was at 8.2 3PA/100 as a sophomore)

• 39.8%: Murray’s 3-point shooting percentage 

• 6.4%: Murray’s block rate

• 2.3%: Murray’s steal percentage

• 15.7: Murray’s Box Plus Minus (this is BONKERS; potential No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren is at 15, Evan Mobley was at 13.7)

• 5.7%: Murray’s turnover percentage. This is quite low considering his usage of 29.7% and assist rate of 10.1

• 1.37:1: Murray’s assist-to-turnover ratio

Knicks Fit: Murray’s ability to defend multiple positions as a big wing would enable and add to the Knicks’ lineup flexibility. Besides Cam Reddish, the Knicks lack the true, freakish long wings who can defend guards and bigs. RJ Barrett gives the Knicks some of this because of his strength, but his length and height are more average for a wing. Murray’s ability to make quick decisions and be productive hunting scoring opportunities without the ball in his hands would also add the kind of element that Obi Toppin gave to the Knicks, which really helped unlock Barrett and Quickley’s driving ability by stressing help defenders. And as a 40% 3-point shooter on high volume, Murray could give the Knicks a true stretch 4 (Obi’s shooting improved towards the end of the season and he should be capable, but Keegan is on another level).  

On the other hand, can Murray play the 3? His lack of burst on offense could be problematic if he is being defended by quick 3s. How does he fit next to Obi? Would Thibs be willing to play them together at the 4 and 5 as the two bigs despite the loss in rim protection? The Knicks should have a good plan for how they use Murray, especially given the other Knicks’ kids who are also ready for bigger roles. Locking him into a small role would probably be less preferable than letting him thrive as a versatile forward. We worry about younger players not having a defined role and struggling to adapt, but Murray’s age, experience, and skillset should make this an easier transition.