A big wing with top pick pedigree, could Paolo Banchero be the prize waiting for the Knicks if they move up in the lottery?

Position: PF, Duke

Age: 19

Height: 6 ft 10

Wingspan: 7 ft 1

Weight: 250 lbs

The Sales Pitch: The most likely player in the class to be a true primary option and an offensive engine. He has the athleticism, the strength, the height, the ball handling, the passing, the shooting, and the isolation scoring to become a permanent mismatch. Despite having an objectively harder shot diet and offensive responsibility than anyone else in the top five — by a fair amount — he put up efficient scoring numbers, driving one of the best teams in the country. He has balletic grace and footwork beyond his years, able to bust out hesitations, crossovers, and half spins in crowds. He pairs that deep bag with an ability to score at the rim, from midrange, from three, and to leverage his attention to set up his teammates, showing more of his “point-forward” skillset from high school as the year went on at Duke. All this, and he has still yet to scratch the surface as an offensive threat — he will improve at shooting, and improve at using his strength much more in the NBA as he gets older. 

Elite Traits/Skills: Strength/size/footwork combination

The Devil’s Advocate Argument: Do you trust a team to hand him the keys? He’s 6-foot-10, 250 lbs., but plenty of players and teams gave him trouble in the ACC. The bar for offensive engines is very high in the NBA, perhaps unfairly high — you compete with MVP candidates and All-NBA studs. If you fall short of that high bar, you end up being an inefficient source of offense on a middling team, as Knicks fans well know. And if his offensive output falls short, does he have the floor spacing to impact the game without the ball? That’s an open question. More importantly, does he have enough defensive skill and versatility to make up for his good-not-great offense? He’s big enough to defend big wings and bigs, but he’s not really a rim protector, nor is he particularly switchable, particularly adept off-ball, or particularly great 1-on-1. 

The Misconceptions: I don’t know if there really are any about Paolo! 

Important Numbers:

• 20%: The number of his possessions which were isolation possessions. Compare that to 14% for Jabari Smith, and 9% for Jaden Ivey

• 48/34/73: His slash line

• 40%: His FG% on catch-and-shoot jump shots (82 attempts)

• 47%: His FG% on unguarded catch-and-shoot jump shots (47 attempts)

• 47.5%: His FG% on long 2-point jump shots

• 19%: His DRB%

• .36: His free throw rate

• 3.5: Assists per 36 at Duke

• 1.4: Assist/turnover ratio at Duke

• 4: His assists per game total as a sophomore and junior in HS (they didn’t play in 2020 because of the pandemic)

Knicks Fit: His talent would be an immense boon to the Knicks. Even if the team moves on from Julius Randle, the Knicks would have to commit to testing out an Obi/Paolo front court, which is possibly a dubious fit on defense (though admittedly intriguing on offense). Regardless, though some may gripe about preferring other top-four picks, Paolo would be the most talented draft pick the Knicks have had in no less than 20 years, maybe more.