Aleksej Pokusevski and the importance of a versatile 4
The power forward is an underappreciated, but extremely important position to contending teams in today’s NBA. In 2020’s supposed weak draft class, there’s very few guys that project to possess the skills necessary to be a versatile, modern-day 4. Enter Aleksej Pokuševski, a raw, skinny big man whose skills could make him just that with patience.
As the Knicks prepare for the draft, many fans are laser-focused on the need for a starting point guard, with good reason. Without a point guard or some kind of playmaking, the Knicks have struggled to run even a semblance of a functional offense. Similar to quarterbacks in football, a lead guard or primary initiator seems to be indispensable for those with hopes of becoming a decent team, much less a contender. And especially for Knicks fans who have wandered the desert for so many years with illustrious tank commanders like Elfrid Payton, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jarrett Jack, Jose Calderon and so many others, a point guard seems the most elusive and important building block. And they’re not wrong. But I’m here to make the case that a different position is almost as important if not as important as the initiator: the 4 spot.
In the same way a football left tackle doesn’t directly gain yards but makes life easier on his teammates — most notably the quarterback — a truly versatile, championship-level 4 possesses a unique set of skills (‘sup Liam) that make everyone’s lives easier and help them shine. In this piece, I’ll examine the power forwards on championship teams, evaluate the common denominator skills and, using this lens, offer a brief evaluation of some of the top power forward or power forward-like prospects in the draft, with a focus on one in particular.
To begin with, I believe there are four core skills for the 4 spot:
Team Defense: Is the player good at rotating? Communicating with teammates? Does he have the length to get into passing lanes? Can he switch onto other players, including bigs and/or wings? As 4s tend to be longer than guards but more agile than centers, they’re uniquely positioned to use their superior court coverage ability to make life easier on defense for their teammates.
Playmaking: I include post playmaking and passing here, but how much offense can the player provide for his teammates, either off the short roll, isolation creation and drawing double teams (and making the right reads), or drawing doubles in the post? Players tall enough to see over the defense with ball handling ability can create matchup nightmares and allow coaches to be creative.
Shooting: This is an obvious one, but a player who can space the floor from the 4 provides space for his teammates by taking a taller player out of the paint and forcing him to defend at the 3-point line. In addition, as mentioned above, 4s are often some of the most impactful help defenders, so if you can punish your defender for helping on penetration it creates massive lanes for your teammates. In addition, shooting 4s give teams flexibility in signing bigs who may be strictly rim-runners and shot blockers; a non-shooting 4 somewhat constrains the lineups you can put on the floor.
Rim Protection: This is somewhat related to the team defense mentioned above, but a 4 with the length, athleticism and instincts to provide rim protection massively bolsters a team’s defense. They allow shot-blocking bigs to leave their man and help on ball handlers. They allow lineup flexibility for coaches to play more ground-bound 5s, or 5s in the bodies of 4s (we’ll get to you in a minute, Julius).
My thesis is that a championship team needs a 4 who can do two of the above skills at an elite level or three at an above-average level. These thresholds are a bit open-ended — i.e. how do you define “elite” or “above-average” — and there’s probably a lot of data and film analysis one could use to determine these cut-offs. This isn’t meant to be a scientific resolution, but a heuristic in understanding what you need from the 4 position to build a contender. Let’s look at past championship teams:
2020: The Lakers featured Anthony Davis, an elite rim protector, elite team defender, and very good playmaker (some passing shortcomings and the inability to always gain post position against stronger defenders is mitigated by his creativity off the dribble), who in the playoffs played like an elite mid-range shooter and a capable 3-point shooter.
2019: The Raptors had Pascal Siakam (above-average playmaking; above-average team defense; above-average rim protection).
2015, 2017-2018: The Warriors had Draymond Green (elite playmaking for the position; elite team defense; above-average rim protection) and Andre Iguodala (elite playmaking for the position; elite team defense).
2016: The Cleveland Cavaliers, when they weren’t playing LeBron James as a small-ball 4 (elite playmaking; above-average team defense; above-average shooting for the position; above-average rim protection; also, is LeBron James), got a great performance from Kevin Love, particularly in the Finals. He was already an elite shooter and playmaker — particularly from the post and in face-up situations, but his outlets are worth mentioning — but made strides as a team defender as well.
2003, 2005, 2007 and 2014: Tim Duncan is perhaps the greatest power forward of all time. During his prime he brought elite post playmaking, elite rim protection, elite team defense, and his bank shot and ability to hit from midrange were pretty good considering that was before the pace-and-space era. Even on later iterations of the Spurs, he was above-average as a playmaker, rim protector, and team defender, if no longer elite overall (and he certainly seemed to raise his game in the playoffs).
2012-2013: When not playing LeBron at the 4, the Heat had Chris Bosh, who brought above-average rim protection (I’m being conservative; he was pretty damn close to elite), elite team defense, and above-average playmaking (again, being conservative).
2011: Dirk Nowitzki is probably the best shooter to ever play the 4, but he was also an elite post playmaker. These qualities made up for his team defense and rim protection (or lack thereof).
2009-2010: The Lakers had Pau Gasol (above-average rim protection; above-average team defense; well above-average mid-range shooting; elite post playmaking) and Lamar Odom (above-average team defense, above-average rim protection, above-average playmaking, capable shooting that we won’t call above average here).
2006: Whoo, buddy — this is where our heuristic breaks down a bit. Antoine Walker actually turned in a solid shooting season (36% on 4.7 attempts per game), but it’d be generous to call him an above-average playmaker, team defender or rim protector, particularly at that stage of his career. Udonis Haslem was perhaps an elite team defender, but offered little in the way of playmaking, rim protection, or shooting. OK. We’ll chalk this one up as an L.
2004: Ball don’t lie. Rasheed Wallace didn’t shoot particularly well that season (though one could argue that in 2004, even 33% on 3.6 attempts per game for a 6-foot-10 power forward was above average), but even if we don’t give him that, he was an elite team defender, elite rim protector for the position, and an above-average playmaker.
2000-2002: Robert Horry was an above-average shooter, above-average team defender, and above-average rim protector. Similar to the Heat in 2006, he might have benefited from playing next to a generational center and shooting guard.
It’s worth noting that although there are some star forwards here, they weren’t always the best player on the team. Guys like Siakam, Draymond, Iguodala, Odom, Rasheed and even Bosh (in his role with the Heat) weren’t high-usage offensive hubs, but their unique combination of skills allowed their teammates to flourish.
It’s also worth noting which skills I didn’t highlight. I did not single out rebounding, even though it’s often associated with the power forward position. Why? Well, in the absence of two of the other elite skills being elite or three being above average, even elite rebounding doesn’t get you much. In addition, it’s much easier to find a 5 with rebounding ability who can cover up for a 4 who has shortcomings there (but you can still fuck right off, He Who Must Not be Named) than it is to find a 5 who can stretch the floor, AND provide rim protection, AND keep the defense afloat without a high-level team defender at the 4 to cover for a power forward who lacks those skills.
I also didn’t mention positional defense. Why? Well, you can generally hide a poor man defender who is a solid team defender, especially on a team that is playing a non-shooter at wing or guard (this is famously how the Cavaliers handled Iguodala).
If you don’t believe me yet, let’s consider the Knicks’ current starting power forward: Julius Randle. Randle is an elite rebounder for the position and actually a solid on-ball defender. With his agility and strength, he is not somebody you want to isolate against unless you are either very quick, an excellent shot creator, or are simply much bigger than him. Add in above-average playmaking for the position, and do we have the recipe for a championship 4? No.
His on-ball defense and rebounding does not at all make up for the lack of interest he has as a team defender and the lack of rim protection he could provide even if he was engaged, given his lack of length. If he could do those things, you could live with his subpar shooting. But he lacks precisely the Swiss Army knife qualities that all those unsung 4s we just talked about had, and that most winning teams get from the position. Randle is more talented as a shot creator and athlete than, say, Jae Crowder, but Crowder’s unique combination of skills are much more useful in making the game easier for others.
Now, if we accept this premise — or at least agree that these are skills that should be prioritized for a 4, and that finding such a 4 is very important to team development — we can look at some of the power forward prospects that may be available to the Knicks in the draft.
Most draft boards have Obi Toppin as the top power forward in the draft, and almost nobody sees him falling out of the top five. I’m personally not long on Obi stock, but if we were to imagine a path to him becoming a championship-level 4, it would likely have to come on offense. While he did average 1.2 blocks in college, his poor reaction time and defensive instincts don’t lend much encouragement to the idea of him becoming an above-average rim protector, and his team defense is even worse. Even getting to average there would be a massive win.
So you’re betting on Toppin becoming an elite shooter and playmaker. There’s some reason for optimism. Obi has great vision as a passer, and could be devastating in 4-on-3 situations out of the short roll or from the post (though I do worry about his ability to get deep post position, due to his high hips). Even if he never becomes a good ball handler (and he’s already 22, so I’m not sure we want to bet on that), his nuclear vertical athleticism combined with that passing ability and size could portend a future as an offensive hub.
Can he become an elite shooter? Obi did shoot 39% from three, though took only 2.6 attempts per game. His 71% free throw percentage isn’t particularly encouraging, either, though it’s not exactly bad. Still, he has a fluid and comfortable stroke that should translate.
Would I take the bet? I lean no. There are a lot of good shooters today, so for Obi to become elite looks something like Karl-Anthony Towns or Davis Bertans. Those are elite shooting bigs. If Obi falls short of that and ends up in the same shooting percentage range as players like Jerami Grant, Brook Lopez, or even late-career Blake Griffin, that is likely not enough to offset his defensive limitations, even if we combine it with high-end playmaking. Obi would likely be an elite offensive player, but it’d be really tough to build a winning team around a 4 who defensively cannot make the game easier for his teammates and plug all the holes that true championship-level 4s do.
Another traditional 4 who’s received a lot of draft buzz is Jalen Smith. He has a projectable shooting stroke with solid percentages from 3-point range (37% on 2.8 attempts per game) and the free throw line (4.8 attempts per game). He still has work to do to get there, but an above-average outcome isn’t out of the question, though he’s likely to be much closer to Grant than Bertans on the shooting spectrum. Add in his rim protection (2.4 blocks per game) and team defense (excellent motor and instincts in rotation, even though he lacks lateral quickness), and we can forgive his total lack of playmaking and passing ability.
He may not have the offensive upside of Obi, but seems to be a better bet to have a versatile bundle of skills that winning teams need. It’s worth noting, however, that he doesn’t have a whole lot of margin for error; if any of the three skills comes in at average or worse, he’s probably more of a rotation player than a key piece of a championship team. His lack of agility may make it tough to defend faster 4s 1-on-1, but team defense is more important. Hopefully his slow feet won’t hamper his team D thanks to good instincts and a good motor, but should his team defense suffer, it will be tough sledding.
Next let’s look at Patrick Williams, who is more of an idea and a ball of clay than a fully-formed basketball player at this stage. The easiest thing to project for Williams is defense; he’s an intelligent player from a great defensive program at Florida State with a high motor and very good athleticism. He should project to be at least an average team defender and rim protector; with a little lower body recomposition (check out this excellent piece from PD Web for more on that). Williams could transcend to truly elite at those two things, which meets our threshold. Even as a young, raw ball of muscle and instincts, he accumulated eye-popping block numbers from the wing spot for FSU (BLK% over 5). So above-average rim protection and team defense are solid bets for him. If one of those bets doesn’t pan out, there is still hope: Patrick Williams is not a one-way player.
He shot 84% from the free throw line, and though he didn’t take a ton of threes and only shot 32% from beyond the arc, given his form and high school shooting statistics (over 40% from 3) it doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest he can become an above-average shooter in the pros — think Paul Millsap-level, at least. Lastly, for his size, he has flashed passing and ball handling ability. Although he did post a negative assist-to-turnover ratio, considering the skills he’s displayed at such a young age (he’s the youngest American prospect in the draft and second only to the player we’re building up to), it’s not overly bullish to believe he can get to above-average there, either.
Williams has so many outs to becoming a championship-level 4. He’s probably not going to be an elite shooter or playmaker, but if he becomes above-average at both he only needs to become above-average as a team defender or rim protector (at this point it looks like a good bet he’ll be above average at both). Or if he reaches elite outcomes as a team defender and rim protector, the offense is just gravy. Or if he doesn’t do anything at a truly elite level but is above-average at three or four categories (pretty safe bet he’s going to be above-average at both defensive ones, which leaves really just one of shooting or playmaking) he’ll still meet our threshold.
What does this all mean? Having multiple skills and outs to NBA success are especially valuable at a position that is all about versatility, perhaps more so than any other position. Even though Toppin might have a better chance of hitting an elite outcome in a certain skill or two given where he currently is as a prospect, Williams probably has a better cumulative probability of success as well as ceiling, given the demands of the position and his versatility. There is a dual effect here, as versatile prospects not only benefit from having a unique combination of skills, but also from having more avenues to getting at least two potential elite or above-average skills.
The more pathways to above average/elite production in these key categories a power forward prospect has, the better we should feel about them as a prospect. If that seems like stating the obvious, contrast it to how we might evaluate a sub-6-foot-5 point guard: sure, the more boxes you check, the better, but if you’re not an elite pull-up shooter or an elite athlete (horizontal and vertical), things like team defense or even passing don’t really add much to the ledger. In 2020, if you don’t have some very specific bankable elite skills, you’re destined to be a bench guard, no matter how well-rounded you are (Hi, Tyus and Tre Jones!).
Now, before I (finally) get to the guy mentioned in the title of this article, let me mention a couple of prospects who are not traditional power forwards, but are often mocked to the Knicks: Devin Vassell and Isaac Okoro. Vassell’s measurements (6-foot-7 with a reported 6-foot-10 wingspan) should allow him to be an above-average rim protector. He was an elite team defender, with instincts and an ability to cover massive spaces that made him look like basketball Ed Reed. His shooting looks projectable, and he hit over 40% on respectable volume in college, so an above-average outcome there is reasonable. Even though it would take significant development for him to reach above-average status as a playmaker, his improvements shooting off the dribble as a sophomore and 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio (matched by flashes of some passing sophistication and decent vision on film) provide some reasons for optimism, particularly if he makes strength gains.
So is he the 4 of the future? No. There is likely a certain physical threshold worth mentioning. Even his length is less than ideal for a 4 and he needs to gain a ton of weight (probably something like 30-40 pounds) to make playing the 4 for heavy minutes viable. Still, it looks to be a possibility for him in some lineups and speaks to his meta-versatility as a prospect (again, more reasonable outs to value, this time as either a wing or 4).
Okoro should project as at least an above-average team defender, if not elite due to his average measurements. Even though he’s an elite athlete, I don’t see him as an above-average rim protector in the NBA, either, at least at the 4 position. And as much as we’ve heard about his work ethic, do you really feel comfortable projecting an above-average shooting outcome? I think he’ll be capable, but it will be a long process; even then, he likely won’t be a high volume guy. Still, he’s shown excellent flashes as a playmaker off the bounce, with a combination of strength, power, agility and nimble footwork. He’s also a solid passer.
Still, to be a high-end 4, we’re asking him to either develop into both an elite team defender and an elite playmaker (not impossible, but still pretty optimistic) or one of an above-average shooter or above-average rim protector (his jump shot and free throw percentages dump a lot of cold water on the former, his 6-foot-5 frame with 6-foot-8 wingspan on the latter). He does have outs, though. But I think this illustrates that trying to turn Okoro into a 4 is not putting him in position to reach his potential. Instead of asking him to be the help guy on defense, unleash him on the other team’s best wing scorer or creator. Why ask Champ Bailey to be Ed Reed? Instead of asking him to space the floor on offense, why not let him attack the rim and use that unique intersection of strength and athleticism? I do think Okoro is capable of playing the 4 in stretches, but making that his primary position would really be a misuse of his skillset, more so than with Vassell.
Lastly, one quick line about Saddiq Bey: seems like he will be a good shooter, but I’m not particularly high on his defense (I think he’ll be fine, not particularly great) or playmaking. So as I mentioned with Pat Williams, a power forward prospect that has true paths to all four of the key skills AND is super-young is a very valuable commodity.
Alright, allow me to introduce Aleksej Pokuševski.
Poku and Williams, physically, couldn’t be more different. Where Pat is already built like a grown-ass man at 6-foot-8, 225 lbs, looking like a huge block of muscle, Poku is rail thin and desperately needs a couple of years of cheeseburgers and the weight room. Williams impresses with his vertical athleticism and explosiveness; Poku’s athleticism is more notable for its fluidity, running around screens, covering the court and weaving through traffic as a ball handler in ways a 7-footer simply should not be able to.
In more ways than one, Poku feels boom-or-bust. Even when you move past the necessary physical development, he alternates between looking like Magic Johnson dribbling coast-to-coast throwing an audacious behind-the-back or cross-court pass, to looking like Dion Waiters attempting some crazy move that doesn’t have a prayer. More often than not, his audacity is well-founded: he’s a gifted passer with excellent vision and good ball handling for a player his size. A nearly 1.5:1 AST/TO ratio is pretty damn good for an 18-year-old big.
On defense, at 7-foot with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Poku has good length, even if it’s not preposterous. He shows good instincts and timing, averaging 4.1 blocks at the FIBA U18 European Championship, in which he broke out and helped Serbia finish at the top of its group and advance to the Round of 16. But he’s not an elite athlete and likely lacks the size and athleticism you might want from a 5, to say nothing of his 200-pound frame. He’ll be punished by quick guards on switches and burly bigs in the post.
As a shooter, Poku’s versatility is incredible. How many 7-footers do you see coming around floppy screens, taking step-back threes, and having the confidence of Trae Young from deep? Yet his percentages were poor, and while he has good form, he could be more mechanically consistent. For example, he occasionally does this weird thing where he drops his hand off to the side on his follow-through. The aforementioned weight room, along with the Kenny Payne Treadmill of Doom, will probably help with that, should he become a Knick.
But perhaps the biggest source of uncertainty is his unique playing situation. He played on the Olympiacos B team in the Greek Second Division, the same league that was once dominated by a man named Giannis Antetokounmpo. Pokuševski’s numbers compare favorably to the Greek Freak’s, averaging 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.9 steals and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes (compared to 15.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game for Antetokounmpo). And though Giannis is obviously a much better athlete, it’s worth noting he also shot poorly — 46% from the field; 31% from deep — dealing with some of the strength issues as Poku (though he was older and physically more mature the year before the draft). The numbers are not a be-all, end-all — Giannis’ development stateside was famously superhuman — but they do help paint a picture of what Poku is working with.
Nevertheless, the fact is, Pokuševski’s competition was not on the same level as the NCAA, ACB, or even the Australian NBL. It’s tough to draw meaningful conclusions given that, and as enticing as Poku’s skillset is, it’s fair to question whether he’ll have success trying the same dribble moves, or block as many shots, or be able to turn it on and off whenever he wants in the NBA. The mental challenges and habit-making he is facing upon being drafted loom just as large, if not larger, than the physical development obstacles. There were certainly unique aspects of Pokuševski’s contract, and his obvious qualities as a prospect (he could have very well received a promise from a team long ago to dial things down) that may have played a role in him receiving reduced minutes or being placed in the Greek second league, but the uncertainty still has to be noted when evaluating him as a prospect.
But there are some things should translate. He will still be seven feet tall. Fluidity is fluidity, and the grace with which he’s able to move on the court and handle the ball should at least allow him to attack closeouts and perhaps even portend movement shooting. The level of difficulty on many of his passes (some of it self-imposed, sure) indicates the guy should be able to make the right reads and deliver the ball in NBA windows. And while the percentages still don’t bear it out, it’s tough not to be optimistic about the shooting outcome given how smooth he looks. Some small mechanical tweaks and lower body strength gains will help here, too.
So how does he look if we apply our rubric? Despite the gaudy block totals, I don’t feel comfortable projecting Poku as more than an above-average rim protector at the 4. But I feel pretty comfortable in doing that, at least. Given some of his lateral agility issues, it might be too bullish to project him as an elite team defender. But I feel comfortable seeing him as an above-average team defender who can get in passing lanes, make the right reads, and communicate. Given the shooting percentages, I don’t know if I can project him as an elite shooter. But considering the fluidity and age, it’d be disappointing to not see him end up above-average there. And given the versatility, an elite shooting outcome may not be truly outlandish.
Movement shooting as a 7-footer is something he already does, not something we need to project. And given the elite passing ability and ball handling at his size, an elite playmaking outcome may not be out of the question. Now, projecting 7-footers to be able to create space against NBA athletes off the dribble is often a fool’s errand; there are many more Anthony Randolphs than Kevin Durants. And yet, Poku does have rare ability here. He can go coast-to-coast, change directions, hit defenders with hesis and crossovers. I’m not saying he’ll be Durant, but his combination of vision, passing, shooting ability, and handle might even allow him to run some pick-and-roll. At the very least, he should be absolutely devastating in 4-on-3 situations as a roller (provided he gets thick enough to set a decent screen).
So, once again, yes we have a range of outcomes. But we have many different pathways to above average or elite production compared to most power forward prospects. Even if he’s unable to rack up block totals against bigger, stronger, more explosive athletes, he has a path as an above average short-roll playmaker, shooter, and team defender. Or if he doesn’t quite develop as a shooter, being an above-average playmaker, above-average rim protector, and above-average team defender could make him into something like a skinny, modern Boris Diaw.
Or he can simply hit an elite outcome in both of his offensive skills and be so devastating there that even if he can’t ever hang on defense due to physical limitations he’ll still be the right 4 (note: this is just one outcome of many successful ones for Poku, while we mentioned this was likely the only path in which Toppin becomes a high-level 4 on a contender). The permutations are endless in terms of breadth and depth; besides maybe rim protection, it’s tough to say an elite outcome is off the table for any of these skills. Most importantly, he excels in the skills that are going to make the game easier for his teammates. Why, then, are people so quick to call Poku — or Williams, for that matter — a risky pick, while labeling Toppin the safest prospect in the draft?
My theory is that we prefer certainty, even if it’s in areas that are not necessarily the most crucial. I can see Obi’s production. I can see his athleticism. He will get points — efficiently — and rebounds. He will even shoot a little, and that’s what modern hoopers do, amirite? He will produce! But will he be producing what you need?
Poku and Williams have more projectable outcomes as role players and as stars. Now, it’s completely fair to suggest that no matter how versatile Pokuševski is, unless he meets certain weight and strength thresholds, he will be unplayable. This is true, but again, given the number of paths he has, he doesn’t need to get up to 250 lbs. If his wing skills translate, 220 likely suffices. Or if his shooting doesn’t translate, he can focus on getting stronger so he can play more of an interior game.
I’m not saying the Knicks have to take Pokuševski or Patrick Williams with the eighth pick. The Knicks need wings, too, and Vassell and Okoro will be very useful players off the bat while still providing some upside. The Knicks need a point guard, and it’s been my consistent position that Killian Hayes should 100% be the pick if he’s available. But consider one more thing: in this much-maligned draft, there isn’t a whole lot of star upside, there are a lot of high-floor guys, especially on the wing, who should contribute as shooters and/or defenders pretty early. Sure, other teams are likely to fall in love with guys like Desmond Bane, Isaiah Joe and Immanuel Quickley, but it’s quite likely one of them (or sleepers such as Merrill) will be available at 27 and 38. It’s not unreasonable to think the Knicks could walk away with two immediate contributors in those two positions.
At point guard, while Malachi Flynn seems to be getting enough buzz to escape the Knicks’ clutches, a player like Grant Riller is (inexplicably, if you ask most of the Strickland staff) likely to be available. He’s 24 years old, with a quick first step, savvy creation abilities, high-level shooting and great penetration and finishing ability, and can plug-and-play to raise the floor of many of New York’s offensive units off the bat. Devon Dotson, Nico Mannion, and Cassius Winston are also likely to be around as solid point guard options. No, they don’t have the upside of Kira Lewis or Killian Hayes; yes, they will be solid enough as rookies for us to avoid reaching at No. 8 for a guy like Cole Anthony just to feel like we took a franchise point guard.
But one archetype it will be tough to find is the kind of 4 I’ve described. Killian Tillie would be ideal (seriously, he’s that dude), but he has injury concerns and could be gone before 27. Robert Woodard looks to be a very good team defender and shot a good percentage from three on a limited sample, but he’s not a great playmaker or rim protector. Jaden McDaniels is perhaps as much of a project as Pokuševski physically, and hasn’t displayed nearly the same level of feel or vision.
So if the Knicks can find high-floor wing/guards who are plug-and-play at 27 and 38, but no championship-level 4s, why not take the best opportunity they have at finding a high upside core piece for our future? And finding a 4 to build around isn’t easy. After all, if any team should know that, it’s the Knicks. We’re all tired of hearing “The Knicks signed 85 power forwards” jokes, but the reality is, despite investing a ton of money in the position last year, the Knicks couldn’t find the right guy. Ironically, the Knicks have had two power forwards who came close to fulfilling these production prerequisites: Carmelo Anthony during the too-short-lived Melo-at-the-4 experiment, where he spaced the floor at an elite level and provided above average (but sadly to triangle advocates around the world, not elite) playmaking; and Kristaps Porziņģis, who provided elite rim protection and elite floor spacing (though we didn’t have him shooting enough threes for it to matter — newsflash, coaching matters). So if Leon Rose and Walt Perrin think they may have found this rare archetype of power forward in the draft, passing on him should be considered as risky as passing on as a franchise point guard prospect.
If this is the play, I think both Williams and Pokuševski are very intriguing. However, the almost radio silence on Pokuševski for the Knicks has been puzzling (though in fairness, it seems like no one really knows what the Knicks are going to do). Once you get past his frame and level of competition and take a look at his actual skillset, it becomes quite clear that he’s safer in many ways than some of the guys who are being mocked ahead of him, while his upside is exceeded only perhaps by LaMelo Ball in this draft. Would they take him at No. 8? Likely not, due to the optics, but they should absolutely kick the wheels internally on it, and should definitely try to read the tea leaves and see if they can acquire a pick near his projected range of 14-20. The league as a whole — including Scott Perry and Steve Mills – remains behind in terms of how they evaluate power forwards. This could be Rose and Perrin’s opportunity to race ahead of the pack.