Assessing the Knicks’ low-key NBA trade deadline and what it means for them moving forward

The NBA trade deadline came and went for the Knicks yesterday, with only one move around the margins to show for it. Did the Knicks miss out? Was the timing just not right? Did they avoid doing something stupid? Jeremy Cohen breaks down the present and future implications for the Knicks.

Two years ago this April, I had the privilege of going to Peru with my girlfriend. I love traveling and I hadn’t left the continent for a bit, so I was highly anticipating this voyage. We booked a reservation at a world famous restaurant in Lima for the end of our trip, eager to enjoy some fine dining for cheap, as the dollar stretches quite far in Peru. We traveled on planes, trains, and automobiles; we climbed up the equivalent of 306 flights of stairs (and then back down) on Machu Picchu, in the rain and fog, while battling severe food poisoning (shoutout buffets); we battled against high altitudes and, in my case, a language barrier. I was in uncharted territory, and knew I would leave Peru with positive memories and perspective.

Our vacation was coming to its end and the fancy night out we had envisioned soon arrived. While seated, we sipped on our pisco sours before the wine arrived, ordered ceviche, and savored the moment. The breads and spreads were brought to the table and they were… fine. The main courses followed and they were… adequate. No dinner would be complete without dessert, and on this night, it was a chocolate dish with Peruvian fruits, shaped like an ostrich egg. I gently tapped the fragile dessert with my utensil, scooped a spoonful to my pie hole, and determined the sweet dish was… tasty enough.

My girlfriend and I split the modest bill and left a bit unsatisfied. We liked the meal, but we were expecting more from the experience. We were so looking forward to this dinner, and it just sort of happened. The meal wasn’t bad — it merely wasn’t ideal. We weren’t angry or regretful of our dining choice, but we yearned for something that matched our anticipation, and this didn’t live up to our hype.

So when the 2021 NBA trade deadline came and went yesterday, after months of exciting possibilities due to the Knicks’ financial advantage, I felt like I was back at that dinner in Peru. It wasn’t a bad experience, but it didn’t elicit joy. Trading Austin Rivers and Ignas Brazdeikis for Terrance Ferguson, Vincent Poirier (who will be waived), and two second round picks (one of which will fall around 55-60 this year, the other which is unlikely to convey in 2024) was not the Brock Aller special that I had in mind. Where were picks that actually have value? What happened to being the third team facilitating a big trade? How are the Knicks benefiting?

The Knicks have $13.5 million in cap space, down from the $15 million they had to start the day. By waiving Poirier, the Knicks will open up a roster spot and use more cap space when they sign another big man. New York could have upgraded at the wing with Evan Fournier for two measly second rounders, but I don’t believe it would have mattered much anyway. The Knicks didn’t need Fournier’s Bird rights, and while he’s talented, there was no pressing need for New York to make an upgrade. Fournier has also historically struggled in the playoffs.

With the deadline behind us, you probably have some burning questions. I believe I have some answers.

What can the Knicks do with the remaining cap space?

The Knicks can carry their cap space into the draft, acquiring some sort of asset(s) for taking on a bad contract. This is something the Nets and the Hawks agreed to in 2019, when the Hawks absorbed Allen Crabbe’s contract for pick compensation. The Nets, of course, cleared space to sign two superstars. That’s not going to happen for the Knicks this offseason.

It’s worth noting that players who are under contract on draft night are eligible to be traded (like Kevin Knox) while players on expiring deals (like Elfrid Payton) cannot be traded.

There’s the argument to sign Andre Drummond, and I cannot get behind it. Seeing Drummond post up constantly — especially when he currently sports the worst field goal percentage at the rim in the NBA — and considering how elite rebounders are really not en vogue, is not something that appeals. The only way I think I could possibly talk myself into signing Drummond using this year’s cap space is if it’s on a modest, multiyear contract with the intention of flipping him this offseason. This feels like a 2K move, though.

How much cap space will the Knicks have this offseason?

There are reports that the Knicks can create up to $60 million in cap space, and that feels a bit misleading. Unless the Knicks aren’t guaranteeing Julius Randle’s contract, or if Kevin Knox and Obi Toppin are moved for no returning salary, the Knicks are likely looking at a little over $51 million in cap space as of this date of publication. Granted, the salary cap could increase, thus increasing cap space, but it seems unlikely to be enough to get the Knicks closer to $60 million without subsequent moves. The exact amount will depend on if New York makes Mitchell Robinson a restricted free agent or picks up his team option (making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022 instead), where the Knicks draft, if the Knicks make the playoffs (Randle has a playoff bonus), and more.

Additionally, the Knicks will have the room exception if they spend all their cap space. That amount is projected to be worth $4.91 million. When you incorporate this, the Knicks technically have around $56 million at their disposal.

What’s the deal with Lonzo Ball?

New York projects to enter the offseason with Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Kevin Knox, and Immanuel Quickley. Factor in Mitchell Robinson in some capacity, and let’s assume the Knicks draft three players and use their new pick on an international player who would not be on the team, and we’re looking at filling up to six roster spots. $51 million, plus another almost $5 million with the room exception, to sign six players.

The free agent classes for the next two years are quite underwhelming as a whole. The salary dump market will likely resemble last year’s, in that it was nonexistent for large contracts. How are the Knicks going to navigate?

Lonzo Ball talk will not go away anytime soon. Given New York’s reported interest in Ball at the deadline, it’s easy to surmise that a large offer sheet for Ball will be in New York’s future. 

The Knicks cannot trade for Ball’s rights on draft night. The soonest they could acquire Ball is once the moratorium is lifted. The Pelicans would be wise to make a move with Ball as soon as possible this offseason. Ball’s cap hold is ginormous and the Pelicans would have no cap space until they make a decision on the eldest Ball brother. If New Orleans doesn’t want Ball long term and does not make the decision quickly, they run the risk of losing out on other free agents. David Griffin will be entering year three and has zero playoff appearances to show for it, so one would think there’s some pressure for him to add the pieces he has in mind around Zion Williamson.

Even if the Knicks offer Ball a contract starting at $20 million, a steep price no doubt (and not a prediction whatsoever), the Knicks would still have $31 million to spend, plus the room exception. We should then factor in the total cost of potentially retaining Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Reggie Bullock, Nerlens Noel, and Frank Ntilikina. That would be New York’s free agency in a nutshell. Boring but transparent. Of course, how likely is it that this is the plan? Surely it cannot be this simple…

The Knicks are below the salary floor. Is that a problem?

So yes, New York did finish the season not hitting the salary floor. If the Knicks don’t sign a buyout candidate for more than the minimum, they will have to take the difference between the salary floor ($98,226,000) and their payroll ($95,621,821) and evenly distribute it amongst their players. The total for each player, as it would stand right now, is an extra $186,012. That’s not much in NBA money, but no player is going to scoff at getting more.

I keep asking myself if the Knicks messed up yesterday, and I continue to come back to the same answer: no, they didn’t. Yet the Knicks also didn’t do anything right either. Effectively doing nothing isn’t a sin, but it’s also not going to be considered one of the three miracles to make you a saint. The Knicks did acquire Derrick Rose last month, and while he’s been impacted by COVID, New York’s 7-3 record with Rose conveys that it has still been a worthwhile trade. So if you consider this year as acquiring Derrick Rose, Terrance Ferguson, an open roster spot, and a fake second round pick for Dennis Smith Jr., Austin Rivers, Ignas Brazdeikis, and moving down around 10 spots in this year’s draft, that’s not worth getting in one’s feelings. In fact, even though these moves could have been made even if the Knicks were functioning above the salary cap, you could argue that the Knicks still used their cap space and came out ahead.

We could also be Bulls fans instead, hating the fact that our favorite team is adding win-now talent that won’t win now. I don’t think it’s worth criticizing the team, per se — I just would have enjoyed seeing something that would better position the organization for the long-term future.

The Celtics and Heat also made upgrades yesterday, the Raptors took a small step back, and the Knicks largely stood pat. New York’s floor is 10th in the conference, which is still good enough to make a play-in game. Anything goes in single-elimination games. The front office appears to understand the team’s capabilities and limitations. There wasn’t a move to vault the Knicks, unless you consider that player to be Ball, and if you do, there’s a compelling argument to only use cap space and not get into a bidding war with picks and/or players to get him.

There’s a great World Wide Wes story from the 2010 All-Star weekend in Dallas. It’s 2:45am, Wes, Bill Simmons, and some other individuals, including a young player, are enjoying the nightlife. The young player wants to continue hitting the town. Wes, however, disagrees.

“‘Nothing good can happen at this point,’ Wes explains simply. ‘You can’t chase the night. When the night is over, the night is over. That’s just the way it is. You just gotta wake up tomorrow and hope for a better day.’”

As a fan, I wish more deadline activity occurred. I wanted more assets, and while this team added at least one pick, it’s so minuscule that it’s shrug worthy. We weren’t privy to the deals in place, or if there even were available trades. How can we fault the Knicks for not taking advantage of trades that simply never materialized? We cannot. And yet, even if it’s no fault of their own, I’m simply unsatisfied. I thought that New York’s dollar was supposed to stretch, that we would be downing pisco sours like there’s no tomorrow and debating whether or not the Leon Rose statue would have a halo or a fancy top hat. The deadline came and went. No harm, no foul. There’s still time on draft night, but in a season full of positive surprises, it would have been nice to have converted unused cap space into something that would have helped the Knicks in the long term future. Yet yesterday was in the past, we woke up today at 23-22, and we have no choice but to hope for a better tomorrow.