Assessing the worth of the Knicks’ restricted free agents this summer

The Knicks had three players eligible for extensions this past offseason — Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr., and Mitchell Robinson. Jeremy Cohen examines why the decision not to extend them was a prudent one, and tries to figure out what the three players (mostly Mitch and Frank, sorry Dennis) could be worth this summer

If you had a quarter for every time you’ve heard that the Knicks haven’t extended a former first round pick since Charlie Ward, you’d probably have enough quarters to fill a sock and beat yourself to death with it to spare yourself from the pain. Well, let’s add another one to the pile. The Knicks decided last month that they will not be signing any of their first round picks to a second contract. New York chose to not extend Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. And while the Charlie Ward curse does not pertain to him, the Knicks decided not to lock up former second round pick Mitchell Robinson as well.

Teams extend players early because they’re either players worthy of the max or teams believe they’re getting them at cheaper now than they would be the next summer. I’ve witnessed fans having sticker shock when, generally speaking, they probably shouldn’t. Yes, Derrick White was an overpay, no matter how you slice it. The Spurs saying “We have so much cap space, it’s only $6 million more than what his cap hold would have been, and we’re displaying our loyalty, so it’s okay!” isn’t savvy. But O.G. Anunoby could have fetched more than four years and $72 million next summer. The free agent market is shrinking, and because of that, teams will overpay to get talent instead of sitting on their hands. Luke Kennard getting four years and $64 million (which includes incentives) is a lot, but the Clippers don’t need to worry about that. If anything, a bigger contract means they can better match salaries for a big deal, seeing as how they can trade their 2028 first round pick next offseason as well.

The reality is that we’re not in 2018 anymore. The salary cap may have stagnated this year, but it will continue to increase. When the salary cap increases, salaries do too. Teams aren’t paying restricted free agents for what they’ve been, but instead what they believe players will be. You think Kennard has produced enough over the last three years to earn up to an average of $16 million annually? Hell no! Los Angeles doesn’t care about the past, they care about the future. Their analytics likely tell them what he’s worth, and if those metrics show he’s worth less than that, they overpaid because of the salary matching point and because their owner, Steve Ballmer, doesn’t mind paying more in luxury taxes.

The Knicks not extending Ntilikina, Smith Jr., or Robinson was expected. I wouldn’t say it’s commendable that no player received an offer, but their prudence can absolutely pay off in the offseason. That said, it just takes a few breakout performances to turn the tides and leave the Knicks regretting not making a deal. It just seems unlikely to be the case with anyone except Robinson.

Frank Ntilikina

The last time the Knicks let a former first round pick hit the restricted agent market was 10 years ago with David Lee, when the big man was re-signed to a one-year deal. Once that contract expired, Lee was sent to the Golden State Warriors in a sign-and-trade.

New York could be in somewhat unfamiliar territory this offseason with Ntilikina, assuming he’s not traded at the deadline. If the Knicks have absolutely no intention of re-signing him by the deadline, Ntilikina must go in a trade. If he’s playing well, New York can come to an agreement with the young Frenchman in the summer or let the market determine his value.

I have to admit, the discord that Ntilikina’s presence creates astounds me. So much energy has been spent on a role player. Roughly a third of the league projects to have cap space next season. It only takes one team to make a move, but how significant of an offer sheet would it have to be to pry Ntilikina away? The situation shouldn’t be viewed as “Frank either explodes and the Knicks keep him” or “Frank hasn’t become a starter so they’re cutting bait.” There is a middle ground here, and it’s that you can keep Ntilikina for little money. The Knicks will be among the teams with the most cap space in the NBA, and the free agent market is weak. You really think that Ntilikina holds the leverage here? I can assure you, he does not.

Unless he’s drastically overpaid, letting Ntilikina walk would be a mistake. It’s not that Ntilikina’s talent is so irreplaceable that it’s a tragedy to see him go, but his departure would represent a failure to recoup any sort of ROI. If you’re a fan who’s outraged at the idea of Ntilikina earning $9 million next season on a descending contract, you’re reacting to the wrong number. The significant factor here isn’t $9 million, it’s the percentage of the salary cap. The early projection is that the 2021-22 salary cap will be $112,414,200, and $9 million is eight percent of that projection. For reference, the salary cap in 2017-18 was $99,093,000. That same percentage in 2017-18 equated to about $7,933,491.

Someone tweeted at me not too long ago that Ntilikina making more money next season than Austin Rivers and Alec Burks are this season would be outrageous. Comparing a 22-year old who is still on his first contract with a 28- and 29-year old, respectively, is a disingenuous argument. When Rivers was due for his second contract, he earned a three-year, $35 million deal. His first year’s salary was 11.7% of the 2016 salary cap. Meanwhile, Alec Burks signed his second contract for four years and $42 million. The first year of his contract was worth 13.5% of the 2015 salary cap.

Even still, comparing Rivers and Burks when they received their second contracts to Ntilikina this coming offseason feels incomparable, because Rivers and Burks greatly differ from Ntilikina. Good offensive players with defensive limitations will get paid more than good defensive players with offensive limitations. Ntilikina should be earning less than Rivers and Burks, but not by a ridiculous amount. Again, second contracts are when you bet on upside. Kris Dunn just signed for two years and $10 million with the Atlanta Hawks despite being 26 years old and a worse player than Ntilikina. Paying a young, versatile defender more than $5 million and less than $9 million — especially considering that the market for talented free agents is evaporating — is really okay, folks.

I mentioned on Twitter last month that the Memphis Grizzlies gave De’Anthony Melton four years and $35 million this past offseason. Yes, that’s the same De’Anthony Melton who shot remarkably similarly to Ntilikina last year. It’s a descending contract, where the first year is 8.8% of this year’s salary cap. No other team threw him an offer sheet and he still walked away with that contract, which was and is considered fair value. That same percentage, 8.8, and contract structure would mean Ntilikina would project to earn… $9.8 million next season, a mere $800,000 more than the $9 million we just discussed in the previous paragraph.

The basis for why I felt Melton’s contract could be the quintessential model for what Ntilikina can earn next season depended on two things: 1) Playing on-ball and 2) Staying healthy. It’s very clear that the Knicks do not see Ntilikina as a lead ball-handler, so the first point goes out the window. As a result, so does his financial value. Ntilikina has also been sidelined by a knee sprain, which is rough considering it’s a contract year.

Marcus Smart was mostly used off-ball during his rookie contract. Smart was (and is) a better defender than Ntilikina, but he was also a worse shooter. For context, Ntilikina’s true shooting percentage, free throw shooting, accuracy at the rim, and ability to hit corner threes have all been better in general than when Smart was on his rookie contract. On the other hand, Smart was much better at drawing fouls and creating contact than Ntilikina has been.

I’d like to think that Smart having earned $11,160,716 during the first year of his second contract should not be considered an overpay. After all, that was 11% of the 2018-19 salary cap. So yeah, if Ntilikina sticks around, signing him at eight percent of next year’s salary cap is acceptable value.

Dennis Smith Jr.

I’ll be about as brief with Smith Jr. as his Knicks career will be. The likeliest scenario is that the Knicks do not offer Smith Jr. a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Perhaps he’s traded elsewhere at the deadline to match salaries, because Smith Jr. would have to turn his whole career around to be worth something on the open market, when a team could likely sign him for pennies in the offseason if they really wanted him. The Knicks would then renounce his cap hold and create an additional $17 million in space.

You can tell that the Knicks have given up on trying to bring up Smith Jr.’s value. Smith Jr. hasn’t shown that he’s deserving of anything more than limited garbage time, let alone a second contract or anything above the veteran’s minimum. Hopefully he turns it around for his own sake, but we have three seasons worth of uneven play that indicates who he has been and who he is likely to be.

Mitchell Robinson

Robinson differs from Ntilikina and Smith Jr., not just in terms of sheer talent but also contract situation. Although the window for Ntilikina and Smith Jr. to agree to a contract extension has closed, Robinson’s has not shut. In fact, the big man can sign an extension at any point this season. The reason is that Robinson’s contract drastically differs because, as mentioned previously, he was a second round pick. If the Knicks decline Robinson’s 2021 team option, he will become a restricted free agent in 2021. If the Knicks exercise his 2021 team option, Robinson will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

I wrote about Robinson and his contract situation last September. Since then, the future NBA landscape has changed dramatically. What has also changed (but not significantly) is that I calculated that a big man who a) earns a contract of at least three years; b) secured that contract since 2017; and c) does not shoot, makes 12.53% of the salary cap on average. In that time, we’ve seen Mason Plumlee earn about 7.5% and Bam Adebayo agree to a max contract. Mitchell Robinson will probably secure a contract north of that original percentage of 12.53, likely somewhere around 14-15%. When we apply that to next year’s salary cap, that’s about $15.7 to $16.9 million in salary his first year. That is a starting salary that bets on Robinson’s potential while being fungible for any future deals.

Robinson’s low cap hold in 2021 was viewed as advantageous because the Knicks could have, hypothetically, signed two stars and then paid him. Hell, the same could have been said in 2022 if his option were picked up and if Anthony Davis were set to hit the market. Now, with a weak free agency on the horizon, I’d prefer the Knicks bite the bullet and pay Robinson this offseason. It’s a small price to pay for the relief that he will not enter unrestricted free agency and walk for nothing.

Paying Robinson now would cause complications this offseason. If you were to assume the Knicks would find a taker for Julius Randle while receiving expiring salary, or that they would non-guarantee Randle’s salary so that he only has a $4 million cap hit on the books, then extending Robinson in the interim makes more sense. After all, the Knicks could have created upwards of $60 million if you include $15.4 million of Randle’s deal being cleared. Yet now, assuming Randle’s option will be picked up, not paying Robinson between now and the start of free agency would give the Knicks somewhere around $45 million. Paying Robinson before he hits free agency would mean the Knicks have in the ballpark of $31 million to spend.

You may be thinking “Isn’t cap space relative at a certain point?” Yes and no. Between Robinson, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Kevin Knox, Austin Rivers, and two 2021 first round picks, the Knicks only need two to three players in free agency. And if the Knicks wish to keep Ntilikina, his salary will cut into that amount as well. Having $31 million, plus the room exception, should more than cover the Knicks. Yet if the Knicks were to spend big on Victor Oladipo, perhaps give out a bloated, short term contract to Mike Conley or Kyle Lowry, or even try to steal away a restricted free agent, they would have far less financial runway than if they simply waited to re-up Robinson.

Besides, if you’re the Knicks, what’s the rush to pay Robinson and lose the opportunity cost of that extra $14 million or so? Because of loyalty? Because you’re afraid another team might offer him more when he’s already expected to command enough money where it’s, once again, relative? Robinson’s cap hold is projected to be a little above $2 million. It’s far more advantageous to have $45 million to spend and then go over the cap to re-sign Robinson than it is to sign him now. If another team gives Robinson an offer sheet, you have the moratorium, plus at least 48 hours after he’d sign, to make the necessary moves you want before you go over the cap to match the deal.

It piques my interest that news of the Knicks having had “internal consideration” this past summer in re-signing Robinson has recently leaked. My raised eyebrow has nothing to do with the report itself but with the timing of it. What party gains the most with this news coming out now? It has to be the Knicks, no? I can’t see Robinson having much to gain from this. Is this a tactic for the Knicks to try and trade him? Is New York saying “We don’t want Robinson long term but if we pretend that we do, it will force teams to pay more because we’re publicly valuing him?” Or is this all a big nothing burger? Considering that no player on this roster should be untouchable, I’d imagine the answer lies somewhere in between.

If, for whatever reasons, the Knicks do not feel Robinson is a key piece to their long term future, the best time to trade him is at the 2021 trade deadline. That is the very last time Robinson can be dealt on both a cheap contract and with restricted free agent rights attached. If the Knicks want to flip him during the 2021 draft to move up or acquire another pick, they would have to pick up his team option. Picking up his team option is a risk to other teams though, as they would want to agree to an extension with the big man before he potentially hits the unrestricted free agent market in 2022. The Knicks could also extend Robinson and use him in a package as both an asset and as salary filler to acquire a star, if and when the time comes. This isn’t implausible, but it does apply more pressure from the Knicks’ perspective, as Robinson is unlikely to outperform his next contract like he has on his current one.

The hope is all of this is moot and New York keeps Robinson, as it would mean the Knicks would have found their center of the future. If, and only if, the Knicks do trade Robinson, it shouldn’t be an indicator that they refuse to commit to anybody long term and are ignorantly chasing star free agents that aren’t there. Instead, it should signal that Robinson isn’t deemed the right player to extend because he doesn’t fit the front office’s vision or play style. Perhaps if you’re traded after working with Tom Thibodeau and Kenny Payne, the player fans covet differs from the player the Knicks want Robinson to be. Or maybe the Knicks do like Robinson but feel the returning package is too good to pass up. Real life examples can be tricky when it comes to basketball, but think of it like an eligible bachelor who breaks things off with his significant other. It’s not that he never wants to get married, it’s just that he doesn’t want to get married to that particular person. Again, ideally, everything works out and Robinson is a mainstay.

Restricted free agency is a trap, as teams have to overpay a player so much that they scare off his own team. Knicks fans know the dangers of poaching players in restricted free agency after the Tim Hardaway Jr. signing, a contract that would not have cost nearly as much if the front office had kept Hardaway Jr. in the first place and then re-signed him. There’s a reason most restricted free agents return to their team, and it’s because it’s designed for teams to protect homegrown talent.

I wish I could decree that the Knicks not signing Robinson or Ntilikina is good or bad, but it’s too premature to do that. The good news is that for the first time in ages, the ball is in New York’s court with these players. Unless either player accepts their qualifying offer (which Robinson won’t do but Ntilikina could), the Knicks hold the leverage here. Another team could sabotage what the Knicks are doing and extend a crazy offer sheet for Robinson, but they would be tying their money up for a while in a player the Knicks would then keep.

This is a big year for a new front office, a new coaching staff, and a team that could have as many as 11 players hitting free agency. That number will change as the season goes on and trades occur but the general theme remains. It’s up to the team to make the players the best that they can be and it’s up to the players to be their best selves as well. Betting on players after their first contract is a tricky path to navigate in a salary capped league, but it’s one the Knicks should embrace.