Beware of mirages: Why the salary dump market may not be robust for the Knicks this offseason
Jeremy Cohen dives into the salary dump market for the Knicks this offseason, hot on the heels of an SNY report that the Knicks are open to the possibility. But rather than a bountiful oasis of bloated contracts with picks attached, the Knicks may be looking into a desert void.
Leon Rose is stranded in the desert. The sun oppressively hangs over him, scorching his fair-skinned epidermis like a practice squad quarterback facing the Cowboys’ defense. It’s felt like days since Rose has eaten, had any water to drink or found shelter. As he trudges through seemingly endless sand, he lifts his head and faintly sees something on top of a dune in the distance. He squints, but cannot make heads or tails of what this thing is. He moves closer, and suddenly, he recognizes it. It’s all anyone down on their luck has ever wanted: it’s… it’s… it’s a salary dump with a first-round pick attached.
Rose must get there as quickly as possible in case someone else, marooned in this arid region, recognizes the tantalizing asset and takes it. He sprints to the top of the dune as fast as a somewhat rotund, 59-year-old can running on sand. Exhausted and parched, Rose reaches the sacred spot. He stretches out his arms, falls to his knees, and wails in agony. There was never any salary dump; it was merely a mirage.
Yesterday, SNY’s Ian Begley reported that “the Knicks are open to using their cap space to take on undesirable contracts via trade.” Go ahead and take a look at the quote tweets from Begley’s initial tweet celebrating the Knicks being open-minded. In case you wanted to know where the bar is amongst Knicks fans, we’re not talking about a deal being done that is exciting people — we’re talking about the idea of a deal being done spreading optimism. God bless this fanbase.
Then ESPN’s Bobby Marks chimed in, and, well, he’s not wrong:
We’re still waiting on a salary cap, but I don’t think the Knicks should or will be significant players in the salary dump market, because I don’t think they can be. The significant offloading of salary so many Knicks fans have salivated over may not materialize, because the teams with bad expiring salaries are likely to be bad themselves. What’s more, the going rate for salary dumps may be so low that signing players of value and trading them later could be a better option. Add in the fact that other teams with cap space are competing for salary dumps too, and it leads me to believe that the dumping market will be a mirage. COVID could change circumstances, but I’m dubious that it will alter the landscape to a significant degree.
This will be quite broad, but my ideal plan in this interminable offseason has always been to turn excess cap space into assets. The salary dump market, though, is probably an overrated and somewhat cliché way to build a team. Don’t get me wrong: taking on salary dumps can work, but like everything in life, it’s all about timing. If you’re, say, the Nets, and you have either no first-round picks or are on the wrong end of a pick swap, acquiring sweeteners along with assets that are severely depressed in value is a great way to erase your deficit. If you’re operating at a surplus like the Knicks are, you don’t need to acquire more assets. More assets are a luxury, and while luxuries are fantastic, they may not be a need.
It’s also imperative to surround your best players with complementary pieces so your team isn’t an island of misfit toys. What’s a bigger priority, RJ Barrett next to a floor spacer, or acquiring someone like Jabari Parker along with a future second round pick? If your answer is the latter, you’re more focused on the quantity of picks than the quality of your players. And if it’s the former, you can add talent around Barrett and flip said talent later (cough Marcus Morris cough).
We need to first identify what a salary dump is. I define it as “Team A trading a contract and a draft pick to Team B for essentially no money or contract in return.” The Andre Iguodala deal last year, for example, included Golden State sending a future first-round pick in exchange for two-way player Julian Washburn, who was then waived by the Warriors. Golden State did this because they were knee-deep in the luxury tax. The Nets dumped Allen Crabbe and two firsts for Taurean Prince and a future second-round pick, not because of luxury tax issues, but so that they could afford two max contracts. Do you see a superstar on the free agent market where a team like the Nets preemptively offloads salaries to sign said star? I certainly don’t.
Salary dumping also differs from salary cutting. This may seem pedantic, but there’s a true and relevant distinction. The Warriors trading D’Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, and Omari Spellman ($31,108,680) to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins ($27,504,630) and picks meant Golden State avoided the repeater luxury tax. The Warriors wanted a 2021 first, but getting below the luxury tax was not some secondary benefit. Past salary cutting by teams includes the Wizards trading Andrew Nicholson to the Nets or the Thunder trading Carmelo Anthony to the Hawks. Again, those trades should not be considered salary dumps because of the similar size of the contracts coming back. The Knicks trading Julius Randle for a player making more than him is a salary cut for the team that acquires Randle, whereas the Knicks absorbing said player without sending Randle or any other contracts back is a salary dump.
Having identified the difference between salary dumping and salary cutting, let’s evaluate all the (potential) double-digit expiring salary dumps that could be absorbed by the Knicks. If any big expiring contracts appear to be missing, I haven’t forgotten about them. I simply don’t consider them salary dumps, but rather salary cutting options for contenders.
Andre Drummond - $28,751,774 (Player Option)
Why would the Cavaliers dump Drummond when they just acquired him at the 2020 trade deadline? He’s played eight games for Cleveland. Not to mention that Dan Gilbert has seen his net worth increase 656% since the start of the pandemic, so why would he be so hasty about shedding salary?
Otto Porter Jr. - $28,489,239 (Player Option)
The only reason Porter Jr. (who is usually productive) is on this list is because he has played 29 games the last two seasons and 70 over the last three. If you’re Chicago and OPJ opts in, why are you paying to dump this contract? You should accept the fact that the Porter Jr. era is likely to end after this year, especially because a healthy Porter Jr. can help you. It will have been over a year since Porter Jr. stepped on the court. Unless you’re trading him for a longer, worse contract and assets attached, why should Chicago deal him?
DeMar DeRozan - $27,739,975 (Player Option)
The Spurs don’t need to dump DeRozan, and San Antonio doesn’t make that many trades anyway. The Spurs have facilitated 92 trades within the NBA since joining the league for the 1976 season. For reference, the Grizzlies have made 103 trades since their founding in 1995. Yes, despite playing 24 more NBA seasons, the Spurs have made 11 fewer trades than their now-division rival. DeRozan just isn’t worth whatever he would cost to dump, if he’s even put on the market (or he may simply just opt out and leave San Antonio as a free agent).
Steven Adams - $27,528,090
Adams isn’t bad; he’s simply overpaid. The Thunder are going to treat him like an asset and I can’t say I blame them. What’s the reason to move Adams? A rebuilding Thunder team in the grueling West will be bad with or without Adams, he’s a fan favorite, and he provides value defensively and on the glass. The Knicks should be set with Mitchell Robinson and must not trade assets for a player like Adams, since he wouldn’t raise their ceiling next year.
Nicolas Batum - $27,130,434 (Player Option)
If Batum declines his player option to test free agency, he is an exciting new candidate for the Dumbest Person Alive Award. He’s opting in, and there’s nothing the Hornets can do about it. They’re also not going to dump his salary because, well, why should they? They’re a mediocre team that won’t attract any good free agents. If Batum were on the Knicks, would you give up an asset to part with him? Not with this team being as bad as it is and zero elite free agents on the market, you wouldn’t.
LaMarcus Aldridge - $24,000,000
What we said about Adams is applicable here — just add eight years, worse defense, and a shooting touch from outside of the paint. Aldridge is also not bad; he’s just not going to have a large impact and would not fetch anywhere near his $24 million salary on the open market. What does a 36-year-old Aldridge do for the Knicks? Nada. What does San Antonio do with the money they free up? Very little.
Tim Hardaway Jr. - $18,975,000 (Player Option)
Do you really think the Mavericks are going to dump Hardaway Jr.’s contract, let alone on the Knicks? They have few assets anyway and Hardaway is better suited being sent out for a player under team control, not to make room for a 2020 free agent… although I would love to see the look on his face when he finds out he’s been acquired by the Knicks for the third time. It would be even funnier when the Knicks flip him for the third time, too, with a deadline deal.
Evan Fournier - $17,150,000 (Player Option)
Fournier’s a tad overpaid, but what is Orlando using that cap space for with their best player in Jonathan Isaac hurt? Even if Fournier opted out, left Orlando, and his cap hold were renounced, the Magic would still have no cap space.
Gorgui Dieng - $17,287,640
The Dieng-and-second-round-picks-for-Julius-Randle deal is a tantalizing one, but that would be selling low on Randle, and it wouldn’t be a salary dump or cut since Randle makes more than Dieng. As for a straight dump, who are the Memphis Grizzlies spending their money on instead? They have a great deal of cap space for the 2021 offseason, so they might as well ride it out with Dieng from a dumping perspective.
James Johnson - $16,047,100
Unless the mandate from ownership is that the Timberwolves shed as much unnecessary salary as possible, any deal featuring the Knicks and Johnson isn’t likely to happen. It makes much more sense for Minnesota to deal Johnson for another player. Trading the first pick and Johnson will not equal a star in terms of value but you’re really close to the numbers matching financially, at least. Would the Timberwolves want Randle? Probably not, but Johnson for Randle is the framework (emphasis on framework) of a deal that Minnesota should at least be exploring. That’s not a salary dump, though, and dumping isn’t the most logical option from the Wolves’ perspective unless money is, in fact, an object.
Cody Zeller - $15,415,730
As discussed with Batum, why is Charlotte paying to dump any salaries? They have cap space and their best free agent signing in the last decade might have been geriatric Tony Parker.
Danny Green - $15,365,854
Acquiring Green and the Lakers’ 2020 first would be extremely ideal, but it feels unlikely to me. For starters, Green and the pick could probably be used to acquire a better player via trade on draft night than through free agency. Next, unless the rule is amended, pawning off Green and the pick to New York can’t take place on draft night because the Knicks won’t have cap space to absorb the deal until free agency starts. The start of free agency is also the soonest the Lakers could sign their draft pick. That’s important, because teams aren’t allowed to trade newly drafted first-round picks until 30 days after they sign their contracts. If they’re not signed, they count as cap holds, and you can’t trade cap holds. Acquiring Green is not impossible, it’s just unrealistic, especially when you consider that, because this is a short offseason, there’s actually a slight chance training camp would start before this trade is even able to be finalized.
Dennis Schröder - $15,500,000
This man is a fraud. Don’t believe me? Check his on/off numbers with Chris Paul last year. He is fool’s gold, his Sixth Man Award nomination is a sham, and I pity any team that trades for him looking to get positive value. Schröder won’t win the Thunder many games, and he’ll probably help them lose several. He’s the perfect tank engine if he doesn’t get traded. He is also an abysmal playmaker, so he offers nothing of value to the Knicks, especially because his going rate will be for an asset, despite his poor play without Paul.
Rudy Gay - $14,500,000
Please refer to the DeRozan and Aldridge blurbs.
Kelly Oubre - $14,375,000
Oubre probably shouldn’t be on this list since the Suns aren’t in financial ruin, he’s young, and he can log quality minutes. For all these reasons, I’m not sure why so many Knicks fans think the Suns are champing at the bit to dump him. If Phoenix needs the space, Oubre’s expendable. He won’t be traded to preemptively create room, he will merely be a casualty of the cap if they sign a better player. If the Suns can’t land a major upgrade at the power forward position, Oubre will not be dumped.
Patrick Mills - $13,535,714
Please refer to the DeRozan, Aldridge, and Gay blurbs.
Kelly Olynyk - $12,598,243 (Player Option)
The Knicks and the Heat have made one deal together: trading P*t R*l*y in 1995. Even if Miami wanted to dump Olynyk’s contract, R*l*y would rather send Olynyk to a division rival than the Knicks.
Tony Snell - $12,178,571 (Player Option)
The Pistons would be smart to trade Snell for a much larger, bad salary and a pick. Similarly to Charlotte, they’re a terrible team with plenty of cap space and a low ceiling. Snell isn’t getting dumped by the dumpee.
Congratulations, we’ve reached the end of our list for eight-figure contracts ending in 2021. We have very few, if any, good and viable options. What’s more, the Knicks aren’t the only team with cap space who could be looking at a salary dump. They won’t feel compelled to do this, but if the Grizzlies are determined to dump Dieng and sign someone else in free agency, and Charlotte offers to take Dieng for a cheaper price than the Knicks would, which team do you think is getting Dieng? It’s going to be Charlotte.
Let’s focus on 2022 now.
If you read my article on looking past 2021, you know that the market for 2022 expiring contracts is unappealing as well:
The Pistons aren’t paying to dump Blake Griffin ($38,957,028 in 2021-22).
Terry Rozier ($17,905,263) would be a tanking agent for the Knicks and that should not be the goal this season or the next.
Taurean Prince ($13,000,000) and a first-round pick would be divine, but the Knicks and Nets haven’t made a trade since 1983. Could some magic happen? Maybe, but there are more shrewd things Brooklyn could do with the contract, like by dealing it and an asset or two for a different player.
The Nuggets like Will Barton ($14,669,642) and it’s tough to see them dumping his deal unless his knee is in terrible shape. I thought at the time that he wasn’t as valued as he probably is.
Jeremy Lamb ($10,500,000) is good enough to be traded for something of value, but the return likely depends on ownership’s spending interests.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($10,183,800) is coming off an injury-shortened season and, much like the rest of the Knicks, cannot shoot. As with Fournier, the Magic also don’t need to dump any contracts considering how they’ll be without arguably their best player in Isaac.
Gary Harris ($20,932,143) could be a potential dump candidate for Denver instead of Barton. His game has stagnated the last couple years and he’d be the most obvious candidate if there were to be a cap crunch. If another team offers an asset for Harris in the hopes of buying low, though, his value as a salary dump decreases drastically. If the Nuggets use his salary as a trade-cutting maneuver and receive a quality player in return, the Knicks’ chances of getting Harris as a dump plummet (unless the Knicks are the third team in a three-team deal).
Andre Iguodala ($15,000,000; 2021 team option) won’t be dumped to the Knicks for the same reason Olynyk won’t: no salary dumping is needed, since Miami can decline his team option and instantly gain more cap space.
Cory Joseph ($12,600,000) would make sense if his final year weren’t partially-guaranteed for $2.4 million. If you’re Sacramento, why are you dumping Joseph with that small of a commitment? The only reason the Kings would be eager to move CoJo this offseason is if Bogdan Bogdanović costs so much that they’re in financial ruin. I’m not sure how likely this option is, given the lack of teams with cap space to offer an absurd offer sheet. That said, it only takes one other team to start a bidding war.
And then there’s Chris Paul ($44,211,146), who has been spoken about at length. If there’s enough demand, he won’t be treated like a bad contract anyway. He therefore would not be considered a salary dump, especially since the team that trades for him (likely the 76ers, with the hiring of Daryl Morey) is quite likely to send a great deal of money of their own back. New York’s greatest advantage when it comes to Paul is not having to send much (or any) salary in return for him. If Oklahoma City doesn’t care about money coming back and focuses more on assets, New York’s plan to acquire Paul goes up in smoke.
As for contracts expiring in 2023 and beyond? I’m not touching that conversation with a 10-foot pole. I understand the Knicks are playing the long game, given how tough their division is. There is no reason, though, to trade for long term contracts (two-plus years) right now and there is a reason why it rarely happens: the team shipping out the bad contract doesn’t want to pay the price it costs to make the deal. It’s either viewed as a sunk cost to them or they’re hoping the player can turn it around. (fun fact: the example of a sunk-cost fallacy used in my Psych 101 textbook my freshman year of college was Erick Dampier). Wiggins, Russell Westbrook, Al Horford, John Wall — If they’re traded, it won’t be in a salary dump. If any of these players can’t turn it around, they’ll likely be traded for a matching contract, like what Houston did trading Paul for Westbrook.
To all you anarchists out there who want the Knicks to primarily navigate the salary dump market, especially in the hopes that they acquire as many picks as possible, what’s your next move if the supply for significant salary dumps is low? How the hell are you building a team and amassing value? Because let’s face it: If lottery odds are your primary concern, a potential schedule featuring more divisional games is in your favor as-is. You don’t have to worry about the Knicks if they’re getting beaten up in 25 to 28 of the 32 games against the Atlantic.
I understand there’s a pandemic going on and we’re still waiting on financials, but look at the teams that were laid out. I don’t think it’s that bold to say that it’s more likely that two of those bad contracts are traded for each other than dumped outright with a first-round pick attached. While I called salary dumps “overrated,” it doesn’t mean I’m opposed to them. The rest of the The Strickland hates me because I think pie crust is overrated (sue me), but I’ll still eat pie with glee if the kinds I like are offered. If the Knicks can add the right talent on the floor and string together one or two assets through salary dumping, then we’re having our cake — er, pie — and eating it too. I just don’t want to prioritize acquiring players who probably won’t help the team’s core progress along with picks who are long shots to ultimately yield rotation players. It’s incredibly unlikely that a player making less than $10 million is dumped along with a first-round pick. And while I get that you can move up using extra picks attached to any deal, you still need a team to be willing to trade down.
If you think the Knicks shouldn’t and/or won’t add any free agents who can carry positive value, though, you’re not operating from a place of logic. What’s more, you need to hit the cap floor. You don’t have to do that until the end of the season, but you need to hit it eventually. Waiting until the trade deadline to reach it is risky and unnecessary.
“But the difference between the cap floor and the team’s total salaries gets evenly distributed to the players on the team,” you say, “so why rush into something?” Okay, so when an agent from a big talent representation firm asks the Knicks, “Why aren’t you signing any of my clients, especially when they can’t go overseas to get work because of the timing with this pandemic?”, I’m sure that they’ll love to hear “Well, we’re hoarding cap space to maybe take on a salary dump.” You think former power agent Leon Rose would try to screw over agents like that? In a world built on relationships, the Knicks know how important it is to scratch someone else’s back.
Should the Knicks wish to go over the cap to help a team cut salary instead of one dumping salary, meaning New York doesn’t simply absorb a large salary, but trades pieces and works out a deal more similarly to the DLo-Wiggins one, I’d be 100% on board with that. The advantage the Knicks have is that they can strike a deal, or multiple deals, before they make a decision on guaranteeing contracts and picking up any team options. If they don’t get any good offers, they can simply “waive” goodbye to any unwanted veterans.
If the right opportunity to take on a salary dump with a sweetener occurs too — specifically with Danny Green, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris, or Cory Joseph — I’d absolutely jump on it. The salary cap will give New York more insight, but I struggle to see the salary dump market exploding unless the cap and luxury tax drop precipitously. If neither does, the salary-cutting market could take off. And if the cap and tax line do drop, the competition between other teams with cap space could reduce any return the Knicks would have gotten in a vacuum. In that case, signing a good veteran in free agency to space the floor and then be traded at the deadline would make more sense. While I understand that we’re all in the desert looking for a respite on this seemingly endless journey, just remember: beware of mirages.
