The Knicks went up big in Portland to end their road trip, but ultimately blew a 23-point lead on their way to another loss. Is it time for priorities to shift to youth development?

This is getting old. The Knicks lost, again, and I’m left here to unscramble the mess. This one was especially painful. After a disappointing trade deadline, many Knick fans saw the writing on the wall and were ready to spend the rest of the season focusing on development. Of course, head coach Tom Thibodeau did not see it that way, and the Knicks went to Golden State armed with the status quo. The Knicks beat the second best team in the NBA, reigniting a glimmer of hope in the process.

That the Knicks would follow up perhaps their best win of the season by finding rock bottom is perhaps the most Knicks series of events possible. To lose by blowing a 23-point lead to a team whose best player is hurt and just traded away three more of their best players is just a very ripe cherry on top. There’s no sugarcoating it; this one hurt. How did it happen? And what does it mean for the Knicks season? Let’s dive in.

A shaky start

Twelve to nothing. That was the score with 7:53 left in the first quarter, in flavor of the Blazers. The Knicks came out flat. I’m sure there were pessimists whose brains were immediately flooded with negative thoughts. “Same old Knicks. This season is going to be a waste.” But then, a funny thing happened; the Knicks quickly righted the ship. Spurred on by a combination of Julius Randle, a newfound commitment to pace, and the Blazers just not being very good, the Knicks found their stride and finished the quarter up three points.

There aren’t enough good things to say about Randle. Is it too little too late? Probably. But, in a way, the lostness of this season may make his resurgence more impressive. It would have been very easy to mail the rest of this season in. He is not making an All-Star or All-NBA team this year. He is not playing for a contract. The Knicks are, likely, not making the playoffs. There is very little personal incentive, outside of pride and care for your craft, for Randle to do what he is doing. Yet here he is, night in and night out, trying to lead this team — not with words, but by example. You see it in how he attacks the glass. You see it in the increased frequency he steals a page from Obi Toppin’s book and bolts up and down the court. And you see it in how he is no longer letting turnovers or missed shots dictate his effort. The Knicks finish this road trip 1-4, but we can feel as good about our volatile leader as we have this entire season.

Dominance

One of my favorite scenes in the animated comedy South Park is, strangely, a serious one. One of the main characters is sad because his girlfriend left him; yet, despite that, he explains his unequivocal love of life. 

“I love life... Yeah, I'm sad, but at the same time, I'm really happy that something could make me feel that sad. It's like... It makes me feel alive, you know. It makes me feel human. The only way I could feel this sad now is if I felt something really good before. So I have to take the bad with the good. So I guess what I'm feeling is like a beautiful sadness.”

You’re probably asking yourself what this has to do with a random regular season basketball game? Well, while sadness can enhance happiness, the opposite holds true as well. And I can’t help but think that a part of the reason this game feels so low is that there was a point in it that was so high. And believe me, the highs were high.

After an up-and-down second quarter — highlighted by a bench unit that, while once an overwhelming positive, continued its struggles — the Knicks came out in the third quarter firing on all cylinders. Randle, probably exhausted from the road trip, looked determined to put the game away in the third so he could rest in the fourth, and Kemba Walker scored 10 of his 23 points. Even Evan Fournier, who was an atrocious 1-13 on the night, flashed some contributions in the non-scoring department, adding two assists and a steal.

But the star of this stretch was rookie Quentin Grimes. Grimes, who is quietly making a name for himself as being one of the league’s most un-screenable defenders, was absolutely everywhere. He guarded anyone and everyone. He crashed the offensive glass, showcasing athleticism this writer was unaware he possessed. Most of all, he showed off his beautiful jump shot, hitting four threes in the third quarter alone, including one that put the Knicks up 82-59 for their biggest lead of the game. Given Grimes’ place in the rotation is (should be?) safe, it appears more and more likely that, along with RJ Barrett, Grimes will be the biggest positive Knick fans take away from this disappointing season. 

The collapse

After going up 23, the Knicks definitely stumbled a bit to end the quarter. Thibodeau rode the hot hand and ended the quarter with Randle and Grimes playing all 12 minutes. But, while their presence remained, the energy definitely dipped. This is not meant as a criticism. Those two had left every drop of sweat on the court and the team was up 23 points against a tanking team. A dip is to be expected. It is human nature. I’m sure, on some level, they believed they had done enough to ensure a victory.

The Knicks started the fourth quarter as they often do; with five bench players. That unit must not have been executing the way Thibodeau envisioned, because after just two minutes of play for second-year players Toppin and Immanuel Quickley, who checked in at the start of the quarter, Thibodeau reinserted four starters to play alongside Taj Gibson. The Knicks were up 10 at the time, but Thibodeau, known to value being in control like few others, wanted to ensure a victory. 

I’m going to talk more about this, but this is damn near inexcusable. If the Knicks were actually in the heat of a playoff race? Maybe. If there was any evidence that the starting lineup is the unit Thibodeau seems to think it is? Okay. But, despite a victory in Golden State, we’re NOT in a playoff race. And our starting unit hasn’t just been mediocre, it’s been awful. This was yet another example of the firm double standard Thibodeau has established on this team. Kemba Walker spent the first seven minutes of this game offering very little offensively and being hunted on defense. Fournier and Alec Burks were a combined 3-21 from the field. None of those three players saw their rotations affected. 

If Thibodeau wanted to get Randle back in the game, I would understand. And Cam Reddish, who once again impressed, hurt his ankle and could have been unable to return. But there isn’t a rule against mixing and matching lineups. Quickley, who continues to struggle putting the ball in the basket, could have stayed on the court with Grimes, Randle and Burks. And, despite what Thibodeau may have you believe, Toppin and Randle could have shared the court together, at least until Jusef Nurkic stepped back on the court. Once again, in the limited time (just 93 minutes this season) they’ve shared the court together this season, they have a +4.0 net rating.

But Thibodeau isn’t considering changes just yet. So, rather than mix and match, he threw all five starters back in the game with 9:51 left in the fourth quarter and a 10-point lead. Unfortunately, the Knicks’ starters were unable to find the boisterous energy and dominating play they found at the end of the first quarter and built upon in the third quarter. The rest of the game was a slow slog in the mud, exactly where the Blazers wanted it to be. With just over three minutes left, young dynamo Anfernee Simons hit a deep three to put the Blazers up by one point. They didn’t look back. The Knicks lost the game 112-103 and likely stuck a fork in this season, at least with regards to playing meaningful games.

Make it make sense

Unsurprisingly, emotions ran high amongst the Knicks faithful after the game was over. What was surprising, however, was that the target of much of the vitriol was Quickley. Some discussed the shooting woes that have plagued him as of late. Others defended Thibodeau by saying Quickley’s poor play forced his hand and he had no other choice but to bench him after two minutes of second half play. And, of course, his viability as a point guard, which has been discussed ad nauseum throughout the season, was broached. Being the analytical person I am, I decided to look at the updated impact stats.

These numbers continue to speak very loudly. The Knicks score the most points when Immanuel Quickley is on the court. They give up the most points when he is off the court (whatever you think of these statistics, please take Quickley’s defensive impact seriously. The deeper you dive, the more evidence you find that he is already a very valuable defender. The eye test tells the same story). On the whole, the Knicks are 13.5 points better with him on the court than off it. I know what the response to this will be. Quickley’s lineup numbers are bloated by playing with a strong bench unit against other bench units. It’s disingenuous to use these numbers to imply he should start. Which brings me to Exhibit B.

Would you look at that? The middle section is especially frustrating. Randle, Barrett, and Mitchell Robinson are arguably the Knicks’ three most important players. The Knicks have had EMPHATIC success when Quickley shares the court with them. Yet they’ve played just 96 minutes together. Toss in Quentin Grimes, another important young piece, and that number drops to 19 minutes together. (Laughably, that lineup has a +36.0 Net Rating in those 19 minutes.)

So what’s going on here? Is nobody showing Thibodeau these numbers? What is he seeing that we aren’t? Some may continue to harp on Quickley not being a capital-P Point Guard, but how essential is a “true point guard” next to Randle, Barrett, and Fournier? Does Walker have the role of true point guard in his current form? Or is he a spacer who offers space and secondary creation? This is the second straight year I can’t help but wonder if, in the short term, Quickley couldn’t replicate and improve upon the role the player in front is being asked to produce. Because I think we can all agree that, regarding the long term, Quickley gaining reps and chemistry with Randle and Barrett is an enormous positive.

The clock is ticking on maximizing the value of an otherwise lost season. But there’s still time.