Blazers 132, Knicks 129 (OT): The time has come

What could just be written off as a run-of-the-mill Knicks loss was underscored by a problem that’s been brewing on this team for more than three years.

After a long road trip and three days to rest, the Knicks returned to action on their home court, hosting the Portland Trail Blazers. While the scoreboard may reflect an epic, what happened on the court told a different story. This was a sloppy game between two mediocre teams. The Blazers had an excuse; they were missing their best player, Damian Lillard. The Knicks, however, did not. They should have won this game. And while it represents just a single loss in the standings, I am afraid it was the final nail in the coffin confirming something Knicks fans probably have known to be true for quite some time. Let’s dive in…

A little about the game, a lot about RJ and Julius

When you write enough of these you really have to have a knack for repeating yourself in clever ways. This was a game Knicks fans have seen too many times in the past two seasons. Seriously, here is a bullet-point list of details featured in this game:

-Slow start

-RJ Barrett 6-22 shooting

-Julius Randle game-worst -17 plus/minus

-Bench builds a double-digit lead, only to watch starters give it away before halftime

-Zero Randle/Obi Toppin minutes, despite the Blazers deploying a 6-foot-8 Power Forward as their backup center

Sound familiar?

As painful as it is to read the same thing over and over again, it is even worse to write. At a certain point, something has to change, right? Unfortunately, if last night was any sign, the answer to that question is a resounding, “over Tom Thibodeau’s dead body.”

This game featured many of the same good moments we’ve become familiar with. The team got good contributions from three players on rookie contracts — Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, and Deuce McBride. It also saw another vintage Jalen Brunson performance. Brunson has far too often been tasked with putting this team on his back thus far. More times than not, he’s been up to the challenge. 

It also had some familiar frustrations. RJ Barrett was awful on both ends of the court. Offensively, his tunnel vision has returned. When he gets his chances to run the show, he seems eager to make the most of them for himself. He is not letting the game come to him, and his shot has completely abandoned him. The result is one of the league’s least efficient players taking a step backwards. Not exactly what you want to see from a 22-year-old in his fourth season. This is supposed to be when meaningful leaps begin to occur. 

And then there’s Julius Randle, who was not much better. With 7:18 left in the second quarter, and the Knicks leading 45-35, Thibodeau cut Obi Toppin’s shift short (just seven minutes of time on the court in the first half) and reinserted Randle into the game. Despite the fact that the unit was flourishing on both ends with Toppin, Thibodeau decided to call on old reliable one more time. One thing is becoming clear — Randle is proving himself to be reliable. Just not the way Thibodeau thinks. Once again, a big Knicks lead turned into a deficit, and when Toppin saw the court again, his team was down 83-82. Naturally, Toppin was pulled early once again in the fourth quarter, helping his team regain the lead at 101-97. Toppin wouldn’t see the court again as he watched the Knicks fall in overtime, 132-129.

This game doesn’t fall on a couple of players. There is plenty more that goes into a loss like this. Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons combined to score 82 points and attempt 36 free throws for the Blazers. While the Knicks’ young core provided good minutes, they also combined to shoot 5-18 from three (four made by Quickley himself). Shoot just a little bit better, and perhaps the team is looking at a different result. Brunson had a great look inside of 10 feet for the win that just fell short. I know a big part of him believes the game falls on his shoulders. 

But it also was just another reminder that the duo of Randle and Barrett is doomed, and probably has been from the start. I remember when the Knicks signed Randle after drafting Barrett, one of my close friends called the signing “malpractice”. It wasn’t an indictment on Randle as much as it was on his fit with Barrett. And as we enter the dog days of season four of the Randle and Barrett tandem, it is impossible to say much has changed. 

Barrett and Randle are at the bottom of almost all impact metrics on the Knicks. The Knicks’ net rating with Barrett is -5.3 points per 100 possessions, second-worst on the team ahead of only Randle at -5.8 points per 100 possessions. Making matters worse, the Knicks only win the off-court minutes of three players this season; the now-benched Evan Fournier, Randle, and Barrett. Isolate the minutes for only the ones the two share together and it dips even further into the abyss, as the Knicks are losing those minutes by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The list goes on and on.

I have a couple of theories, but the truth of the matter is that it’s impossible to know exactly why these two don’t succeed together. What I do know, however, is that the solution cannot be to continue to spam them on the court together blindly hoping things change. Barrett played 44 minutes last night as Quentin Grimes, who was better on both sides of the ball, sat the final 20 minutes (save a few late-game possessions). Randle, never one to be outdone, played 39 as his young replacement Toppin managed to see just 14 minutes. 

The writing is no longer just on the wall. The writing has been inked so permanently that it’s actually beginning to lose its scent. This is not working here, and it never will. The treatment of Randle compared to Barrett has never been fair in terms of divvying up blame for this tandem’s shortcomings. In fact, I think it would be reasonable to say that through 19 games, Barrett is far more to blame than Randle. 

But Randle is who he is at this point. Any fluctuations in his output will be based upon shooting luck and defensive engagement. We know what his output range is, though. And we know the ceiling for a team that features Randle is incredibly low. He also happens to be directly blocking a more prominent young player in Toppin (while the Knicks are losing the minutes Brunson and Barrett play with Randle by 9.6 per 100 possessions, they are blitzing opponents by 21.4 points per 100 possessions when you replace Randle with Toppin next to Brunson and Barrett). If the Knicks keep losing, there will be many dominoes that fall, but make no mistake about it, the first domino to fall should be the trading of Randle. 

The time has come for the Knicks to recognize that something is not working and move on from it. Barrett is younger, with more plausible growth once freed from Randle, and is not directly blocking any other young Knicks’ paths to meaningful minutes. Multiple other doors open up after that single move is made. It is best for Barrett, it is best for Toppin, it is best for the Knicks, and it is best for Randle.