Bucks 130, Knicks 111: Failure to leap
The Knicks got killed by the Bucks once again, and unfortunately no player exemplified it more than the embattled RJ Barrett.
When I signed up to write my debut Strickland game recap in early November, the New York Knicks featured a defense that ranked among the upper echelon of the league and was anchored by Mitchell Robinson, who had been putting together an early bid for Defensive Player of the Year. The Milwaukee Bucks, fresh off their late-summer blockbuster swing for Damian Lillard, had plenty of kinks to work out with their bottom-tier defense that had just lost its anchor, Jrue Holiday.
Bucks at Knicks on Dec. 23, a matinee affair that happened to be the first game during my holiday break from school, appeared to be a clash of the Eastern Conference’s elite and a very winnable game for the Knicks. That spot was open in our game recap sign-up sheet, so I signed up!
This morning, the Knicks’ defense ranked 26th in the league in its last ten games, and Mitchell Robinson had just woken up from a long night of posting Snapchat stories while nursing his seemingly season-ending ankle injury. The Bucks had won eight of their last 10 and posted the fourth-best net rating in that span.
Needless to say, this game wasn’t shaping up to be the sunshine and rainbows afternoon that I once expected.
It didn’t take long for this game to slip out of the Knicks’ hands. Isaiah Hartenstein, who had recently put together some stellar performances in place of Mitchell Robinson, picked up his second foul with just 10:00 left in the first quarter. That was the bat signal for Taj Gibson, who was (probably) kicking his feet up in Fort Greene when I signed up to write this recap in November.
Taj was forced to go up against a frontcourt that featured Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokoumpo, two of the most dominant paint forces in our game today. A tall task for a guy who had to check himself out of the Knicks’ previous contest after a few short minutes of up-and-down NBA ball.
Luckily for Taj, the Knicks now have Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo, two faces who are less than familiar from Gibson’s last stint with the orange and blue. The Wildcat starters came out firing, with Brunson starting off with nine points on 3-4 shooting and DiVincenzo’s six points on 2-4 not far behind. Those two, along with Julius Randle, kept the Knicks afloat offensively for most of the first half while their Gibson-led defense hemorrhaged points on the other end.
Hartenstein, sporting two fouls and not a drop of sweat, checked back in to start off the second quarter with the Knicks only down nine. Julius Randle started the second by making a tangible effort to get to the rim and ended up in a playful fray with his former Knick teammate Bobby Portis. In my four years of watching Julius Randle, I’ve always found it exciting when Randle gets matched up with a former teammate, a former foe, or a star he’s frequently compared to. Randle generally takes these matchups personally and today’s bout with Portis was no exception — especially in that second quarter.
Brunson continued his red-hot shooting throughout the second quarter, capping the half with a highlight-reel buzzer-beater that would’ve been a 3-pointer if his foot was two sizes smaller. Unfortunately for Randle and Brunson (can we call them R&B yet?), many of their Knick teammates struggled to find their offense in the front half of this afternoon.
RJ Barrett was the head of the shit snake, as he went into halftime with just one made field goal on seven attempts. Barrett did some box score damage control in the fourth quarter, but he was abysmal today and has been an absolute travesty to watch since he missed three games with migraine headaches in November. More on him later.
Offense was just as difficult for Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes, who combined for just six points on 2-7 shooting in the first half.
Despite an opening portion where it felt like the non-star Knicks couldn’t throw a rock into an ocean, I went into intermission with my chin up. The Knicks, only trailing by eight, shot 42% from the field and 25% from three as a team in the first 24 minutes, compared to the Bucks’ 48% and 47%, respectively. I tweeted that the Knicks just needed the shooting percentages to inch closer to their means and they’d be in good shape for a win.
Unfortunately, the shooting percentages did not inch closer to their means.
2023-24 has been a season of third quarters for the Knicks, some of which they blow games open and leave the opponent in the dust, and plenty in which they are left in the dust themselves. This afternoon’s third quarter was the latter. The Knicks came out with a significant lack of urgency and effort in the third, and the Milwaukee lead ballooned to as many as 16 before Tom Thibodeau made his first substitution of the half. Josh Hart checked in for RJ Barrett, whose 1-7 had snowballed to 1-10. Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes entered the game a few moments later, and the Knicks showed their first signs of life in what felt like an eternity.
With 1:50 remaining in the third, Quickley canned a 25-foot pull-up three, followed by a Brunson 21-footer to trim the lead to 11. The Knicks came up with a steal on the following defensive possession, but couldn’t quite hold on to the loose ball. Bobby Portis found himself an easy jump hook, Quentin Grimes missed a layup off a nice pass from Hartenstein, and Pat Connataughn banged a 24-foot three to bring Milwaukee’s lead right back to 16. At this point, I was ready to chalk up the L.
RJ Barrett decided to show up for the game early in the fourth quarter, as his pull-up three and pull-up middy brought the Knicks back within 11 with 9:48 to go. Thibodeau deployed the rest of his starters for one final push, but Barrett’s aforementioned middy would be the only Knick offense until a Hartenstein putback dunk three-and-a-half minutes later.
At that point, Milwaukee’s lead was 20 and the orange and blue faithful began to head home for the holidays.
In an otherwise forgettable fourth quarter, we did see the Knick debut for Ukrainian seven-footer Dmytro Skapintsev. Skapintsev signed on a two-way contract this morning, and projects to be the Knicks’ break-glass-if-needed big man while Jericho Sims and Mitchell Robinson are both out with injuries. His one-minute stint today left nothing of note, but it’s always cool to see a guy who had no idea he’d be in the NBA today suit up for the first time.
Skapintsev and the Westchester Knicks won the NBA G-League Orlando Showcase championship last night, and he must’ve gotten straight onto a flight to get to The Garden in time for today’s game. Shoutout to Skapintsev, Charlie Brown Jr., and Jacob Toppin for their stellar play in Orlando and their professionalism in rejoining the big leagues today.
Bonus shoutout to Brandon Goodwin, who you may not have heard of. Goodwin, a 6-foot guard who is not currently signed to an NBA contract, tore his ACL and meniscus in a brutal injury during a summer 2022 exhibition game. Just over 14 months later, he returned to the G-League and led Westchester to their first Showcase Championship in franchise history. Goodwin averaged 18 points, nine assists, and five rebounds per game in 16 showcase games — an incredible story.
Luckily (or unluckily) for the New York Knicks, they’ll get another shot at the Bucks during their long-awaited Christmas Day matinee on Monday. The Knicks have been pummeled by Milwaukee three times in just over a month, so let’s hope they’re saving the win for the national TV holiday spotlight.
Before I sign off here, we need to talk about RJ Barrett. I love RJ to death and yearn for his success, but like many on Knicks internet, am running out of patience. Barrett has posted a 49.7% true shooting since he returned from his migraine-induced hiatus on November 18. That number is rough on its own, but the scene is even more catastrophic when you compare Barrett with players who shoot the ball at a similar volume. Let's get nerdy…
Barrett has attempted 326 field goals this season, although StatHead may not have been updated with today’s results. Today sucked, so StatHead is doing RJ a favor. Of the 60 players who have shot 326-plus field goals this season, only eight have a FG% less than Barrett’s 42.6%.
Barrett has attempted 108 3-pointers this season. Of the 104 players who have shot 108-plus 3-pointers this season, only 16 have a 3P% less than Barrett’s 34.3%. One of those players is Julius Randle, who is currently stuck at 29.3% from three, but he’s absolved from slander after numerous superstar-level performances this season. This full-season sample is generous to Barrett, as it includes his opening seven-game stretch that saw him shoot 50% from three on 20-40. Since those seven games, Barrett’s 3P% is 26.0%. That number would be good for dead last among the original sample of 106, and I’ve got a funny feeling it’s good for dead last in plenty of much wider samples.
On November 25th, I tweeted that the Knicks’ net rating in the minutes with Barrett on the floor was a startling +14.15 points per 100 possessions. That number, according to PBP Stats (which may not have been updated for today), has since dipped down to +2.41 points per 100 possessions. Barrett’s minutes are still a positive, but the Knicks now have a better net rating with him off the floor, as that number sits at +3.72 points per 100.
Except for 2020-21, where the Knicks were a meager 1.36 points per 100 better with Barrett on than they were without, the Knicks have had a better net rating with RJ Barrett off the floor in every season of his career.
I’m getting closer to believing that this version of RJ Barrett is what he is. That “leap” we’ve been waiting for might not be coming.
There are lots of people on Knicks internet who would trade RJ Barrett for a 12 oz Diet Coke. I’m not there yet, but boy am I getting worried.
The Knicks may again try to trade Barrett for Donovan Mitchell, who appears due for a change of scenery and has long overstated his interest in the New York market. This time around, it’ll be Cavaliers GM Koby Altman answering the phones and not Utah’s Danny Ainge.
The Knicks should probably still give Trader Danny a call though, this time for his newfound crown jewel: Lauri Markkanen. Utah doesn’t seem to be headed anywhere substantial, and it would be justified if the Jazz wanted to exchange their All-Star for some young players and draft capital. As Knicks fans know, Ainge isn’t the easiest negotiator in the phonebook. I’d be surprised if Markkanen is moved, but it’s certainly worth a shot.
The Knicks could even trade Barrett for a player who isn’t as name-brand as Mitchell or Markkanen. While I don’t want to get hosed in a deal involving a former No. 3 overall pick, there are plenty of wings on the market who would provide an upgrade over what Barrett has given the Knicks this season. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks check in on OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Dorian Finney-Smith, or any other above-average wing around the league.
While hypothetical trades are always fun, I’d still be shocked if the Knicks pulled the plug on Barrett midseason. I think a more realistic remedy is to replace some of Barrett’s minutes with his bench counterparts, Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes. There doesn’t need to be a seismic shift that sees Barrett coming off the bench, but it sure would be nice if Thibodeau didn’t wait until eight minutes into the game to call on the 2022 runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year. My peers at The Strickland and I have been clamoring to no avail for more Quickley minutes since he first donned the Knicks’ No. 5, so I’m probably just wasting my time here.
That’s all from me, though. Hopefully, this is just the final “slow start” of RJ’s career, the Knicks win on Christmas and we’ll laugh at this article when the weather’s nice.
Matthew Miranda and our other tremendous staff writers will have you covered on recaps for the next few weeks, but I’ll be back for the Knicks’ 1/13 contest with Memphis!
