The case for the Knicks to look into trading for Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo is apparently on the market (again). How much he might cost to pry from the Rockets is the big question, but could the Knicks be in the perfect position to buy low and attempt to re-sign a talented (but not without risks) player this summer?
As the Knicks continue their surprising season, we are reminded that you can’t spell the word “victorious” without “Victor” and “us.” Here we are, with the Knicks sitting at 10-13 with a -1.5 net rating and a top-10 defense, one season removed from 4-19 with a league-worst -10.5 net rating and the 24th-ranked defense, about to explore trading for a former All-Star. Who’d have thunk!
A report broke this past Wednesday that the Knicks are keeping tabs on a number of players on the trade market, with one player in particular being Victor Oladipo. Getting a more skilled scorer around RJ Barrett would mean the defense has to draw its attention away from him more often, while adding someone who can moonlight as a lead ball-handler would help drastically open up an offense that frequently sees a zone defense.
The working hypothesis is that if the Knicks want Oladipo in the short term and in the long term, they should strongly consider trading for him this season. The Rocket man is eligible to be traded at any point, but if he’s dealt, it likely won’t happen until closer to the trade deadline on March 25. Believe me, I know what I’m suggesting sounds like. We’re talking about trading anything of value for an impending unrestricted free agent, who has the right to sign anywhere this offseason. I can assure you, that fact has not been lost on me.
The Knicks aren’t going to tank away the season, and with the first half of the year not yet completed, there’s ample time for the Knicks to compete for a playoff spot. Considering that the Knicks a) would qualify for the play-in game as the ninth seed if the season ended today and b) are a mere two games away from being tied for the fourth-worst record in basketball, it’s easy to see why the fanbase might be split on whether to play the lottery odds or go for it. Would going for it really be the right decision? Admittedly, the word “right” feels open to interpretation.
The idea to acquire Oladipo is very much contingent on the asking price. If a bidding war ensues or if another team wants to pony up a significant return for him to make a title run, let them. There’s absolutely zero obligation for the Knicks to trade for Oladipo. I’m sure you have questions, so let’s explore this topic together!
“Is Oladipo the right fit, short term and long term?”
This is the most important question of all. There’s no doubt that Oladipo is talented, but you have to add talent that works, especially given his suspect health the last couple years. Due to being a late bloomer and a ruptured quad injury, Oladipo has had only one truly great season in the NBA. What he offers is a mixed bag.
Oladipo excels as a scorer and as a passer. His midrange game has historically been solid. Post-injury, Oladipo has hovered around 35% from three (which is neither bad nor impressive), but sports a solid 3-point attempt rate of above the .420 mark. He is confident shooting both off movement and off the bounce. How good of a shooter he is exactly is up for debate, but defenses seem to respect his willingness to shoot it at any time. Oladipo’s pretty good at drawing fouls, especially non-shooting ones, but his free throw rate is somewhat underwhelming for a two-guard. He is showing signs of regaining his catch-and-shoot ability. He’s adequate in isolation, sufficient as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, and very good in transition, the latter of which would provide a much-needed boost for New York (the Knicks are 29th in transition offense).
Oladipo’s naturally a high usage player. Following his All-Star season in 2017-18, he has not posted a season with an eFG% above 50%. He has taken plenty of shots at the rim, but struggles to convert. He doesn’t attempt many corner threes and he certainly doesn’t hit the ones he takes either. His pull-up game has been on the decline since his injury and his points per shot attempt has been putrid since then as well.
Oladipo was, in many ways, the fourth-best starter while with the Pacers this year, and someone whose name, due to insufficient health, carries more weight than his play. His performance and contract situation made him expendable in the eyes of Indiana. He is a floor raiser, not a ceiling raiser. There’s quality in having that player, though. And besides, if Tom Thibodeau has been able to help transform Julius Randle at 26 into someone who should be an All-Star, who’s to say he and his staff can’t make the proper adjustments to improve Oladipo’s value?
Are we seeing Oladipo rounding back into form, are we seeing contract year Oladipo, or are we seeing Oladipo adapt as a new player? And is this the type of player you pay upwards of $25 million annually starting at the age of 29? You take the good with the bad, but it’s worth wondering if you can find value in other areas of free agency or the trade market.
“What if the Knicks trade for Oladipo and he leaves?”
I’m going to answer that question with a question: What if Oladipo stays?
For years, fans have fantasized about the next star to waltz his way into Madison Square Garden. Media scrutiny and disastrous basketball be damned, someone wants to lead the Knicks to victory! That hasn’t happened in, well, a while. Getting Oladipo in the building and giving him a chance to experience playing under Thibodeau and with the other Knicks would give New York a tremendous head start in signing him long-term.
How many good teams have cap space this summer? Because all I’m seeing are the teams that are supposed to be good and have cap space this summer underperforming greatly. COVID or not, the records for the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat are what they are right now.
“Is there a financial advantage to trading for Oladipo?”
Oladipo plays for the Rockets, who hold their home games in Texas. For those who don’t know, Texas has no state income tax. That’s a pretty nice benefit for a player earning millions of dollars. Florida is another state that has no income tax. Perhaps you can see where I’m going with this: Two of the 10 or so teams that are projected to have cap space this summer are Dallas and Miami. Both of these teams play in states with no income tax.
Dallas projects to have max cap space. This is the Mavericks’ last year to use cap space before Luka Doncic’s cap hold/next contract renders it obsolete in 2022. Dallas needs talent, but they also need defense and wing depth. Oladipo could theoretically work, but it’s unlikely to be the cleanest fit. Dallas is already dealing with one player with looming injury concerns in Kristaps Porzingis. Is a second in Oladipo the wisest of investments? The Mavericks also have not historically been a free agent destination. That can change due to the presence of Doncic and Porzingis, but Chandler Parsons, Wesley Matthews (right after he tore his Achilles), and a washed DeAndre Jordan (when he actually agreed to join the second time) have been the biggest signings Dallas has had over the last 10 years.
Miami is a different story. The Heat knew the money they earmarked for Giannis Antetokounmpo was now unnecessary, so they decided to pay Bam Adebayo ahead of time. The Heat can create a projected $27.4 million in cap space. This would leave them with a roster of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. Though Duncan Robinson’s cap hold is now $4.7 million, the Heat can pull his qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent while keeping his cap hold and reducing it to $1.7 million. Their goal would be to use their entire cap space to sign Oladipo and then go above the cap to pay Robinson. Of course, the risk is that Robinson could leave Miami for nothing, but why would he? Had the Heat not extended Adebayo already, they would have been able to offer a max slot to Oladipo without renouncing all their cap holds or revoking Robinson’s QO.
Similar to the Mavericks with Doncic, the Heat won’t see as much flexibility in 2022 or beyond because Robinson needs to get paid this summer as well. What’s more, while they’re struggling now, the Heat went to the NBA Finals last year. That’s far more recent than 28 other teams, the Knicks and Mavericks obviously included.
So if you’re the Knicks, how do you compete with the Mavericks and the Heat without paying Oladipo too much? They’re historically better than you, they can each make competitive offers, and they play in states where the dollar stretches further. One solution would be by trading for Oladipo.
If a team waits to sign Oladipo in the offseason, that team can only offer him annual raises of up to five percent. However, if a team trades for Oladipo midseason, they hold his Bird rights and can offer a maximum of eight percent every year. You may be wondering about why the Knicks don’t just wait to do a sign-and-trade in the offseason. Well, sign-and-trades carry a maximum raise of five percent, not eight percent. So if those raises are key to retaining Oladipo, the Knicks would have until the trade deadline to make a move.
Yes, the Knicks could also offer Oladipo a fifth year by trading for him, but do they want to take on that much risk? Paying Oladipo over $30 million when he’s 33 because you had to compete with Miami and Dallas is not my idea of a good time. When he’s 32 years old? I’d be cautious, but much more intrigued. But 33? No thank you.
A mystery team can always arise, but the Knicks are in a much better spot to trade for Oladipo than the Mavericks and the Heat. For starters, the Rockets are not trading Oladipo to a division rival in the Mavericks. Even if Houston did, Dallas can’t trade a first round pick of theirs until 2027. Why 2027? The Knicks own the rights to the Mavs’ 2023 first, which is protected until 2025. The Stepien Rule dictates a team cannot trade consecutive future first round picks. And seeing as how the league only lets teams trade picks seven years out, the only first round pick Dallas can trade is the one in 2027. And if they do that, it means they can’t trade another first rounder until they have access to the 2029 pick after the 2023 offseason begins. Because by trading the 2027 pick, they then could not trade the 2028 pick, once again due to the Stepien Rule. Of course, the Knicks could try to put Dallas over a barrel by extorting an asset for Dallas to regain the right to trade their own pick in 2025 (LOL).
The Heat could try to trade for Oladipo, but they lack the assets to pull off a deal, too. Miami cannot trade any of its future first round picks due to pick protections and the Stepien Rule. The Heat also do not have a second round pick in 2021, 2025, or 2026. Any outgoing and expiring salaries would have to match, as Miami would have to ship at least $16,720,000 out.
Except here’s the catch for Miami — through over a quarter of the season, they’re the fourth-worst team in the NBA at 7-14. Sure, they’re a mere two games away from being tied for that final play-in spot, and we all know about their magical run last year. But what happens if the teams around them make improvements while they sit idly by, presumptuously thinking that Oladipo will sign with them in the offseason no matter what? At what point do the Heat try to turn their season around? And what of their few assets are they willing to spend in order to make such a deal?
The Knicks, of course, have a surplus of first and second rounders. If they needed to trade the 2023 Dallas first round pick, they could — but that’s too risky for my liking. So while the Heat likely wouldn’t have reservations about dealing their picks if it meant acquiring and retaining Oladipo, the Knicks having a bigger stash of picks means that they have the power to top Miami’s offer — if they want.
“What might Oladipo cost?”
The Knicks currently have about $17 million in cap space. Oladipo’s under contract for $21 million. If you’re having trouble with the math, the Knicks would need to send out at least $4 million for salaries to match. Of course, this could change if the Knicks use up any additional cap space prior to an Oladipo trade, meaning Houston would have to take on more incoming salary. If the Knicks trade Alec Burks somewhere and take on an extra $2 million as a result, they would then need to send out at least $6 million to acquire Oladipo.
If another suitor has a better offer, New York must consider what it would take to top it. A potential factor is that Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta is hurting financially. Turns out that having the majority of your money invested in the service industry is bad during a pandemic! Seeing as how the Knicks have cap space, they can absorb the vast majority of Oladipo’s deal. The Rockets currently have a payroll bill of over $128 million, per Keith Smith. You know what’s more appealing than paying over $128 million if you’re an owner who is bleeding money? The possibility of paying $10-17 million less than that amount.
As for past precedent trading former All-Stars midseason over the last two years:
Fifty-five games of Jimmy Butler on an expiring contract cost the Sixers a combination of Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Jerryd Bayless, and a 2022 second round pick.
The Pistons dealt Andre Drummond (and his massive $28,751,775 player option) for Brandon Knight, John Henson, and a 2023 second round pick. Drummond accepted the option.
Marc Gasol (and his massive $25,595,700 player option) went from Memphis to Toronto midseason for Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, CJ Miles, and a 2024 second round pick. Gasol accepted the option.
Oladipo is closer to Butler than he is to Drummond or Gasol, both in positional value and contract length. However, 2021 Oladipo is not nearly as talented as 2019 Butler was, and he has yet to demonstrate consistent health since returning from his leg injury. How many teams will be champing at the bit to pay a first round pick or a talented piece like 2019 Covington for around 30 regular season games of Oladipo, if that (considering how he hasn’t played in both back-to-backs since January 19-20, 2019)? How many of those teams have the right combination of salaries and assets?
For what it’s worth, and it could mean little, Kevin Knox and Oladipo share the same agent. Knox is out of New York’s rotation because when he’s not hitting corner threes, he’s not impacting the game positively. Seeing how John Wall likes having the ball in his hands and seldom cuts when playing off the ball, sticking Knox in the corner (where his value is) if the two see minutes together would make sense. Knox is under contract for a touch above $5.8 million next year, and unless he takes his game to a whole new level, he’s unlikely to cost Fertitta and the rebuilding Rockets much moving forward. This would give the Knicks an extra $5.8 million to work with this summer (not that they’re short on dough anyway) and Knox also helps Fertitta achieve the remarkable feat of getting closer to hitting next season’s cap floor.
In a vacuum, Knox and two second round picks does not match up to the other trades listed a few paragraphs above. But given that there are fewer games available to play and that Fertitta would be prioritizing saving money over acquiring commensurate talent, this type of deal is worth offering. If the offer is topped, the front office should consider what it would take to outbid the other suitor(s). If the incoming money is relative to Fertitta, the cost for Oladipo will be more than Knox and a couple seconds. Not a ton more given past precedence but something small, like perhaps turning this year’s Hornets pick (currently 43rd overall) into this year’s Pistons pick (currently 31st overall).
Because, let’s face it: When the idea of two second round picks was mentioned, your mind probably went to a place where it said “Two measly second round picks?! Where’s the value in that for Houston?” Pretend the Jazz and the Knicks were both hypothetically vying to land Oladipo. If I told you the Jazz were offering their first round pick this year and the Knicks were offering their best second round pick this year, you’d think there’s a huge disparity in value between the two. Yet the difference is that Utah would be offering the 30th pick and the Knicks would be offering the 31st pick. The difference is merely one pick! Trading Knox, what’s currently the 31st pick in this year’s draft, and a future second round pick is a nice haul for a dude who could walk out Houston’s door for nothing.
“How about the reasons to not sign Oladipo? Why does it have to be him?”
Yes, the Knicks need to add star talent, and the 2021 free agent market is paper thin if you take Kawhi Leonard and Oladipo away. However, there is no proverbial gun to the head here. Outside of those two players, the only intriguing unrestricted backcourt options are Kyle Lowry (35 years old), Mike Conley (34), DeMar DeRozan (32), Evan Fournier (29), and Spencer Dinwiddie (28 and recently tore his ACL). The restricted free agent market is available, but as I say maybe every three months, it’s a trap to make competitors overpay. The drop-off in talent from Oladipo to the other unrestricted free agents is rough.
Ask yourself what’s cheaper, trading for a head start with Oladipo in the hopes of re-signing him, or spending more and getting in a serious bidding war for the services of Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine, with no promises each would re-sign either? It puts a tremendous strain on your scouting and development to produce top talent as opposed to diversifying your risk.
Gordon Hayward suffered a brutal injury a few years ago, and the Knicks were still in the mix to sign him to a lengthy deal this past offseason. If the analytics convey that Oladipo should meet or exceed the value of his contract, the Knicks should push to sign him. If more value can be squeezed out of someone else instead, then the Knicks should not trade for Oladipo.
“Trading for Oladipo will hurt the team’s odds at getting a top pick and they’ll be in purgatory!”
Maybe, maybe not. This is a loaded draft class. If the Knicks make it to the play-in and get bounced as a 10th seed, they would likely enter the draft lottery as the 10th- or 11th-worst team. The chances to move up in the lottery will be quite slim, but you can potentially trade up a few spots and talent can also fall into your lap where you are. What’s more, while there’s still 70 percent of the season to go, the Mavericks are down bad. Walking away from the draft and free agency with a couple high quality prospects and a formidable grouping of Oladipo, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson is really, really solid. It’s a low ceiling team as-is, but there are enough ways to make significant upgrades.
“Oladipo doesn’t fit the timeline!”
You can always trade Victor Oladipo. Yes, you don’t trade for him to trade him later, but if the right opportunity arises, he should hold some positive value and can serve as a great way to match salary. The tricky part with that positive value is Oladipo has to be healthy, which is not the safest of bets. Converting salary filler and a couple second round picks into Oladipo, and later Oladipo and assets into an even better asset, is one way you can weaponize your cap space.
This isn’t like trading for a 35-year old Chris Paul, either. Oladipo may currently be an older 28, but he should be performing at a high level as a scoring wing for at least a few years.
“What does the future look like with the payroll?”
It’s tricky to say for certain, given the salary cap and where the Knicks would be picking in this year’s draft. Here’s where things would stand this summer if the season ended today, February 4, if the projected salary cap doesn’t change, if the Knicks’ two first round picks didn’t move in the lottery, and if their two second round picks earned the league minimum.
We know that Thibodeau likes 10-man rotations. Randle, Barrett, Robinson, Quickley, Toppin, and the team’s two first round picks could make up seven players in that rotation alone. This means that New York could conceivably create over $47 million in cap space, as well as the $4.91 million room exception, to fill a mere three rotation spots, all of which would be done before re-signing Robinson. That’s a lot of money to splurge on a few players who would see ample playing time.
“I’m still worried that Oladipo will leave.”
Another caveat to the Knicks trading for Oladipo’s Bird rights is that if he wants to go elsewhere, but that team can’t make the math work exactly, the Knicks can execute a sign-and-trade. As we know, that team can’t offer Oladipo an eight percent raise, but Oladipo wouldn’t care, seeing as how he’s agreed to sign with said team. Said team can then send the Knicks some salary and an asset for facilitating the sign-and-trade.
“So... Oladipo. Yay or nay?”
If I’m being honest, I liked the idea of Oladipo being on the Knicks and set out to write this article to justify that thought. And yet, I can’t help but feel as though that idea to acquire Oladipo makes much more sense in theory than it does in reality. The goal is to convert excess cap space into tangible value, but you’re almost beholden to re-signing him because it’s a sunk cost.
I don’t want to give away Knox and a couple second round picks for Oladipo if he leaves, but if that happens, I’ll live. You will too. Believe me, it’s not an optimal scenario if Oladipo flees, but sending that haul for him to then walk wouldn’t set this team back. If Knox does not have a future here because he’s struggling, and if you can buy second round picks, you’re not losing much here. And again, I fully acknowledge that this seems like a weak package on paper, but we have to consider a real-life scenario that involves a billionaire hemorrhaging money and prioritizing that. Because there is an inherent risk in a team trading for less than 30 regular season games of Oladipo when he can walk away for nothing.
Ideally, if a match is made between Oladipo and the Knicks, it happens this summer. When you take a peek at the finances of other teams and the likely competition for his services, there’s sound logic in trading for Oladipo if he’s New York’s guy. While we may not know where Oladipo’s head is at, the risk of trading for a star who could walk at the end of the year would be a risk worth taking if New York has the intel that he would stay. Yet it’s hard not to look at how appealing Miami could be for Oladipo — similar money, lower taxes, better talent that’s ready to win now, and a warmer climate — and wonder if the real victor won’t just be Oladipo, but the Heat in the long run.
