Celtics 119, Knicks 117 (OT): What do you see?
Short of the Milwaukee Bucks or Detroit Pistons punching way above their weight, sometime next month the New York Knicks will face the Boston Celtics in the playoffs (unless an even more magnitudinous upset results in Orlando or Atlanta knocking off the defending champs). It’s a matchup that’s been in the cards for a while without ever coming to fruition; if the Knicks weren’t injury-compromised two years ago (Julius Randle; Immanuel Quickley) or injury-ravaged last spring (literally every Knick), we could be looking at the hottest NY/BOS rivalry since the days when the Yankees were too afraid to throw in at David Ortiz.
Last night the Celtics prevailed in overtime, 119-117, thanks to a game-tying Jayson Tatum three with three seconds remaining in regulation and a game-winning Kristaps Porzińģis trey in added time. Biggest takeaway? Depends.
The Celtics swept the seasons-series between the teams 4-0. This is usually presented in conjunction with the Knicks’ winlessness against the Thunder and Cavaliers as some great source of shame. The Celtics are the defending champs. They’re really good. In fact, there are four other playoff teams who were swept by Boston this year: Denver, Minnesota, the L.A. Clippers and Milwaukee. Two of those teams won titles the past four years and a third was in the conference finals a year ago. The Knicks have done none of those things. Most of the NBA has a losing record against BOS/CLE/OKC. So if the Knicks are able to sleep at night, so am I.
Not all four-game sweeps are created equally. Example: in 1994, en route to winning the Stanley Cup, the Rangers faced the Islanders in the first round. The Blueshirts won in four, by scores of 6-0, 6-0, 5-1 and 5-2. That is a whupping. Couldn’t have happened to anyone more deserving than Ron Hextall.
By contrast, The Knicks were blown out by the Celtics the first night of the year, literally a couple weeks after first acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns and without Mitchell Robinson or Precious Achiuwa, leading to Jericho Sims and Ariel Hukporti combining for 30 minutes that night. They were blown out a second time before the All-Star break, this time without Mitch and OG Anunoby. The third time they played they fell behind big early, but fought back to within four in the fourth quarter. Last night they were 2.9 seconds from the win. I’m not sure these Knicks can beat these Celtics this season, but I’m willing to bet a playoff matchup won’t be Rangers/Islanders all over again.
One concern the Knicks haven’t addressed all year: the 3-point disparity. Not that they’re alone there – the Celtics outscore opponents by 15 points a game from deep on average, which is just ridiculous. Even more ridiculous: that gap is even wider against the Knicks. Over the four games this season Boston made 84 threes to just 45 for New York. That’s a difference per game of 29 points. Unless Tom Thibodean and the boys in the lab are cooking up a radically different tactic for the postseason, I’m not sure how or why we’d expect that disparity to change. Even if you subtract the opening night massacre that saw the Knicks outscored by literally 54 points from deep, over the other three meetings the Celtics still beat them on 3s by 21 a game.
Individually encouraging numbers: 27 points and 10 assists for Jalen Brunson in just his second game back. The shot isn’t quite back yet, but he looked a bit more himself than he did in his first game back Sunday. It’s hard to believe, but it’s been more than a month since we last witnessed Brunson Brunson-ing. Hopefully that’s all cued up just in time for round one.
Individually discouraging numbers: Anunoby and Mikal Bridges combined to shoot just 11-of-28 from the floor. Anunoby missed all five of his threes. Neither wing was able to get into any kind of flow. Is that because Brunson’s re-integration requires minimizing them again before hopefully re-acclimating the versions we’ve watched the past four weeks? Is it because they were a little occupied otherwise defending Tatum and Jaylen Brown? Is it a one-game sample, not worth looking further into? Inquiring minds want to know, but won’t unless answers come in May.
Individually encouraging play: Towns saw a ton of different looks from the Celtic defense last night. The majority of those involved players anywhere from two to eight inches shorter than him, and it was nice seeing KAT – who I feel hasn’t really posted up since, like, January – bossing Boston down on the block with an assortment of lefty and righty hook shots and getting to the line. The last thing the Celtics want is KP getting battered and bruised and possibly in foul trouble contending with the Knick big man. Maybe beating the ultra-modern high-powered C’s requires slowing things down and rewinding to the pre-pace and space days. Towns is 7-feet, 250 pounds. Let ‘em feel that.
Individually concerning play: Against the Celtics, specifically, Josh Hart seems to end up in an awful lot of spots where he can’t do typical Hart things because Porzińģis or Luke Kornet or some other Celtic who’s got a half-foot on him is too close for comfort. It’s one of the real points of separation between these teams — not only do the Celtics feature five two-way starters to the Knicks’ three, but there’s virtually no instances where the Celtics are forced to deal with a size disparity in the Knicks’ favor. Hart and Deuce McBride have appeared the most affected by this fact through the four games this year. One way or another, the Knicks probably need to add a bigger bench wing this summer.
I know less than nothing about sports science, biology, all that jazz. Keep that in mind as I follow that up with this: I don’t see how a guy who missed a month with a badly sprained ankle playing 34 and then 38 minutes his first games back is smart. But Thibodeau makes $10 million a year (at least) mostly because of his approach to NBA basketball, whereas I do not. Nor is Thibs a despot; there’s an entire roster and front office that appears to be in lockstep with his approach. And the Knicks will have a week off between Game 82 and the start of the playoffs. So maybe Metallica was right. Maybe nothing else matters.
Next game – and New York’s next chance to clinch the third seed – is Thursday at Detroit. Fingers crossed the Pacers lose before then, so if the Knicks lose that night it won’t hurt – not only ‘cuz they’ll have their position secure, but because while I think the Knicks would beat the Pistons or Bucks in the first round, I get the feeling the Pistons will involve showing a lot more work.
