Could retaining Julius Randle long-term be one of the first big “culture” moves for the Knicks?
Julius Randle’s value has never been higher, as he’s playing the best ball of his career. It’s for that exact reason that the Knicks shouldn’t entertain moving him, and instead build with their resurgent star.
I think I’ve ridden four roller coasters in my entire life.
Watching Julius Randle’s tenure with the New York Knicks is starting to feel like a fifth.
The excitement that stemmed from his arrival at Madison Square Garden in summer 2019 — the Knicks’ most notable free agency acquisition since signing Tyson Chandler back in 2012 — was short-lived. Randle signed a deal within the realms of most teams’ number one options, for three years and $63 million, that quickly started to look like one of the worst deals handed out that offseason.
Predictably, New York failed to construct a roster that Randle would have thrived in, even in former head coach David Fizdale’s preferred point forward role. His first 10 games accurately foreshadowed what would become of the year. While he put up 15.5 points and 10.1 rebounds, the 26-year old shot just 21% from deep, and was turning the ball over four times a game.
Despite firing Fizdale a casually tardy 22 games into the year and promoting G-League head coach Mike Miller to the position of interim coach, things continued to go poorly for Randle and the Knicks for the remainder of the 2019-2020 campaign. New York ended their year at 21-45, after not being invited to participate in the NBA’s bubble in Orlando. The end of last season left more questions than answers, especially surrounding Randle and his future.
Yet, through the uprooting and replacement of the past front office, and arrival of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks stuck with Julius Randle — and it’s starting to pay off. Through the team’s first 15 games, New York has tallied seven wins and eight losses, making Las Vegas’ preseason over/under line of 22.5 wins look downright foolish. And Randle? He’s only averaging career highs across the board — 22.8 points, 11 rebounds, and 6.1 assists nightly.
It seems Julius Randle and the Knicks have found somewhat of a winning formula. Surprising to nobody, that starts with a competent head coach. So, naturally, the next development in this chronicle is the obvious: keeping the forward in the building next season.
I know that’s not the most popular take in the room, but there’s a number of reasons to suggest it’s the move to make. For starters, who the hell are you replacing him with? If Randle’s play sustains throughout the entire year, it’s hard to fathom that even the biggest fans of Obi Toppin could find a reason to complain. The Knicks’ inability to land free agents aside — and there is an empirical amount of data that backs that up — the 2021 free agency class has lost its luster. Kawhi Leonard has a player option, along with no reason to come to New York. DeMar DeRozan, one of the NBA’s most enigmatic “stars,” will likely command a large deal that he probably won’t live up to. And Victor Oladipo, should he not commit to remain with his new team, the Houston Rockets, will be unrestricted. But given his reported lust to join the Miami Heat, we can count the Knicks out on him as well.
But other than that, you’re faced with a bunch of 30-plus year old former All-Stars, all entering the twilights of their careers: Kyle Lowry, LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Conley, etc. Right now, and this isn’t the wine talking, I’m taking Randle over all of those guys; on his deal, next year. The trade market will inevitably develop, but it’s so unpredictable that we can’t count on it today. Any guy that could become available makes more sense in a pairing with Randle, not in his place.
Which brings me to my next point, the overall value of keeping Julius Randle in New York.
Because, newsflash, there is both an off-the-floor and on-the-court benefit that can be gained in keeping the potential All-Star in a Knicks uniform next season, if not beyond.
Look back to the 2018-2019 season in New York; or in other words, the year they traded Kristaps Porzingis. He’s not exactly tearing it up in Dallas (a rare occurrence where things have developed in favor of Knicks fans) but the point here lies in the second fiddle of that trade: Tim Hardaway Jr., who started 58 games for a 43-32 Mavericks team that pushed the LA Clippers to six games last postseason.
While no one wants to admit it, with Porzingis recovering from his ACL injury on the Knicks in 2018-19, Hardaway was the team’s best player. Whether or not he was playing up to that standard is a question for another day. But they traded the guard away, and had to spend the next season and a half watching him thrive as a member of a Western Conference playoff team. Do you see where I’m going with this yet?
Hardaway Jr. wasn’t, and still isn’t, capable of carrying a young team. That’s fine. But having established scorers (no matter how unpolished) is a necessary component in forming a respectable basketball team. Imagine the guard was still in New York today. THJ’s shooting, his 0-for-12 performance on Monday night aside, would be a big lift for today’s Knicks. A starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Tim Hardaway Jr., RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson would be a stark improvement over this season’s actual product. Alas, we’ll never know.
On the other hand, what we do know, is that in addition to Randle’s flashy numbers, the New York Knicks are overachieving. That’s a lot different than say, the situation in Chicago with the Bulls and Zach LaVine. The 25-year-old guard is averaging an incredible 27.4 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game this season through 14 games. But the Bulls, while only one game worse than the Knicks at six wins and eight losses, haven’t seen the success that his statistics would indicate. In fact, Chicago snapped their four-game losing streak in what was his worst performance this season. LaVine posted just 10 points and 10 assists in their win over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Despite what their record may suggest, the Bulls are facing a situation where their best player is contributing everywhere along the scoreboard except in the win column. As we saw in Monday’s putrid effort against the Orlando Magic, it’s possible that the New York Knicks can still win on Randle’s worst nights.
To get rid of Julius Randle right now is to shortchange a rising young team of their best player. As opposed to Hardaway’s candidacy, I doubt there are many of you arguing that today. But that’s just not what properly run basketball organizations do. Even when the player you’re dealing with isn’t a superstar, but still an essential ingredient in the recipe for winning basketball.
Another example: The Knicks, with a young core in place, employed Amar’e Stoudemire in 2010-11. Now, Stoudemire came with a lot more hoopla than Randle, signed to a full max contract in the summer of 2010 as the Knicks’ advertised savior under the perfect coach for him in Mike D’Antoni (after a failed pursuit of an actual franchise-saving small forward… sound familiar?). But similar to Randle, he performed better than anyone could have imagined prior to the trade for Carmelo Anthony, and led a young team full of some exciting, developing talent to about a .500 start. Sound kinda familiar? Can you imagine trading Amar’e in the middle of that run, seemingly on the precipice of something more?
A part of building and instilling “a culture” in basketball and across organizations relies on just that; building it up without tearing it down. That means keeping players who helped you assemble it, and not dumping them off as soon as the process has reached even 50% completion. Look at the Brooklyn Nets, who, even after trading for James Harden, still have Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris — two guys who established themselves within the same timeframe that franchise grew into relevancy. Even if New York isn’t keen on peeking at their neighbor’s test answers, there’s an obvious element to what the Nets have constructed — the foundation. Harris and Dinwiddie weren’t the top catalysts in Brooklyn’s rise, but they’ve been there since the process’s start.
Maybe one day (hopefully soon) we’ll say the same about Julius Randle. Even if not, you can’t ignore that his contributions right now are preparing the Knicks’ youth for those same roles down the line. As much as we want to credit Thibs for the Kevin Knox resurgence — a stretch I know, but let me have this one — Randle’s gravity in the post and ability to find Knox in his new hotspot, the corner, is just as much of a factor. Knox has been the recipient of eight assists from Randle, and per NBA.com’s stat tracker, all but one of those resulted in a 3-point make. It seems notable considering it’s taking place in the same season that Knox is knocking down a career-high 42% of his shots from behind the arc.
It’s not just Knox that’s shooting and grooving either. Sophomore forward RJ Barrett’s had an up-and-down second year, but there’s been one common denominator: his two-man game with Julius Randle. The two starters have assisted each other a combined 35 times this season. Of those, Barrett’s converted 8-26 3-point attempts. That’s good for only a 31 percent average, yes, but is much better than his overall percentage on the year (21.5%). Barrett’s made just 14 3-point shots on 65 attempts thus far, which means that he’s shooting 15% on any attempts that don’t come by way of an assist from Randle. Per PBP Stats, Randle has assisted on 44 shots from deep, which is good for ninth-best in the NBA.
There’s nothing admirable about New York’s performance from behind the arc this season. The Knicks are in the bottom half of the league in almost every related statistic. But Barrett and Knox are the two most important youth that have gotten play time thus far. So if Randle’s playing not only to his own benefit, but the gain of them as well, what’s there not to like?
This also all comes without newcomer Alec Burks, who in his first campaign with the Knicks looked like one of the team’s best players over the club’s first three games before going down with an injury (that he appears ready to return from on the Knicks’ upcoming west coast trip).
Both the New York Knicks and Julius Randle are finding their way. The fact that it’s happening for them both simultaneously isn’t a coincidence. The trend of Randle’s passing empowering others on the Knicks should only continue as the team gets more comfortable in their new system and properly begins to blend as a unit throughout the year.
While this partnership has indeed been a roller coaster, the start to this year is proving that it can be so much more than the seemingly cataclysmic, nauseating experience that prefaced.
To find out just how far this thing can go, they’ll have to see it through to the end of the line.
