It's never too early for guesswork, and a constantly molting Knicks title contender is absolutely ripe for all kinds of speculation

As the Knicks head into their second preseason game tonight against Washington, it feels as good a time as any to overreach for meaningful conclusions to draw from their over-the-clothes (a.k.a. preseason) opener at Charlotte. Here are three such observations.

KAT impacting the halfcourt offense

What stands out to you about this painting? Give it a minute. 

That’s “Wheat Field with Crows,” by Vincent van Gogh. How’s it hit you? Look at it again, this time with the knowledge that it was the last painting he made before dying. Does it hit any differently now? Knowing that?

Maybe there’s nothing to be made of timing. Sure, van Gogh might have somehow infused his final work with some deeper meaning – if he knew he was dying when he painted it, or knew it’d be his final artwork. If he didn’t? Then it’s just another coincidence in a world long on leads but short on surefire proof. Sometimes proof is a matter of perspective. 

Take the Knicks’ first possession of their preseason opener in Charlotte. Jalen Brunson passed halfcourt and dished to Mikal Bridges out by the left elbow, then cut diagonally from nearly the midcourt line to the nail, the midpoint of the free throw line. As Brunson cut, he screened OG Anunoby’s defender, Brandon Miller; LaMelo Ball was supposed to switch but lost focus for a split-second, leaving Anunoby cutting to the basket. Ball recovered to block OG’s shot from behind, but the result of the play wasn’t what struck me. It was how OG got so wide-open he looked like Minnesota Randy Moss. (Or New England Moss. Or Oakland. Wherever he played, Randy Moss just blew past everybody.)

When Brunson began his cut, all five Knicks were either on or behind the 3-point line. With the Knicks featuring their first starting center who can shoot since Patrick Ewing, expect to see more of that look – a lot more. A few minutes later, Towns offered a glimpse of the new math the Knicks hope smiles upon them all the way into June and the Canyon of Heroes.

Towns could be the rare floor- and ceiling-raisier on offense. His superior size and shooting to Julius Randle’s should ensure the Knicks remain a top offensive side, while certain consequences of his game could unlock easier scoring options for his teammates. OG in the aforementioned sequence is an obvious example, for reasons that emerged even before KAT’s arrival.

Call Anunoby “Ginsu,” because he cuts well. Last year RJ Barrett played 766 minutes with the Knicks before being traded. In that time he dunked 10 times. In 800 minutes as a Knick, OG dunked 39 times. And most of those weren’t shake-and-bake his defender before rising up for a windmill. Death by a thousand cuts: that’s the Anunoby way. As Desmond Novack touched on earlier this week, KAT can pass. There’s going to be more room for Anunoby to do what he does best. Those two could become a real pebble in opponents’ shoes. 

All that open space doesn’t just mean better looks closer to the basket. On Mikal Bridges’ first basket of the game, a baseline drive care of Josh Hart finding him ahead of the field, note how open Anunoby is for a corner three when Bridges reaches the paint. 

The best teams have answers for everything the best teams throw at them. No way to say how long the Knicks will take to get comfortable on offense with one another, but once they do – ¡ai, pobreci’!

KAT impacting the fullcourt defense

The 2023-24 Knicks were really several teams rolled into one: the pre-Toronto trade team; the January team; the team that finished the regular season hot; the one that survived the 76ers; the one that broke apart against the Pacers. According to the averages of all those teams, New York was pretty humdrum about getting out on the break, even slightly below-average. The size and athleticism of the players who should be playing most of their minutes this season should invite as many open-floor shenanigans as is possible. 12 months ago the starting wings were RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes. You remember either doing stuff like this?

Whoops! Now how on Earth did a Mets clip get into this Knicks article? Guess there’s just been too many NY > PHI clips to choose from.

Even back in his pre-Rudy Gobert years in Minnesota, KAT’s offensive rebounding rate was about half what Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein put up last year. That happens when you’re an All-Star scorer and not a fifth option, especially one for whom so much of that scoring comes so far from the basket. The hope on offense is that his scoring and playmaking ultimately outweight the impact of all those lost offensive rebounds. Could this new feature of the Knicks’ offense also impact a mediocre part of their defense?  

Last year the ‘bockers finished middle of the pack as far as how often they defended in transition and how effective their opponents were shooting while pushing the ball. More five-out sets could? should? mean more numbers back on defense, which could/should mean fewer odd-man rushes. Could this year’s Knicks finish higher defensively than last year’s 10th-place ranking? If they do, pulling their primary 7-footer away from the paint could be an ironic reason why.    

Is Tyler Kolek Deuce McBride’s Deuce McBride?

Last year the Knicks traded Immanuel Quickley despite all the growth he’d shown and all the love the fan base felt for him. It helped that they went like 12-2 after that, but no matter the early returns a look back now would show it was pretty clearly the move to make. Quickley and Barrett will earn a combined $58 million this season, OG and Deuce McBride $44 million. And they shoot better. And defend better. And as much as we all loved IQ, “Deuce” is pretty catchy when 19,000 New Yorkers are chanting it in unison.

This year the Knicks could trade McBride, despite all the growth he’s shown and all the love the fan base feels for him. I’m not hoping for that. Maybe it’s not even likely. But it could happen. As was the case with Quickley, and most if not all moves made under the new and monstrous collective bargaining agreement, a McBride deal would have as much if not more to do with roster flexibility as his actual caliber of play. And as was the case with Quickley, McBride could be traded in part because of the organization’s faith in his likely successor.

Remember: when Deuce was drafted to the Knicks, it was the worst-kept secret that summer; everybody and their mother had written about him as a perfect Tom Thibodeau player. Despite rookie year numbers that were nothing to write home about, the coaching staff loved McBride, raving about him even before his play took off. Could history be repeating itself sooner than later, with McBride in the IQ role and Tyler Kolek in Deuce’s? If so, it might work for the same general reason McBride succeeding Quickley did: not because he’s a like-for-like replacement, but because what the new guy brings is more narrowly what the team needs.

Quickley was/is a better scorer and creator than McBride. I’m not sure how to compare them defensively, as they’re both plusses on that end, albeit in different ways. McBride’s strength and length allow him to defend bigger players, an obvious advantage in lineups alongside Brunson. It’s too early to declare what Deuce is as a shooter, but if he can reasonably approximate this year what he did last he’s better than fine out there. These traits complement Brunson’s better than Quickley’s.

But the likelihood of Brunson and Bridges playing 35ish minutes a night makes McBride somewhat of an odd man out — particularly if, like Quickley, McBride wants to get paid the next time he’s a free agent and can see he’ll never have the opportunity in New York to be all that he can be. He’s a terrific defender, yes, but the guy starting ahead of him is bigger, longer and better, and far better paid. And one of the franchise player’s BFFs. No matter what McBride has going for him — and it’s a lot! — it’s easy to see why both parties might feel best off moving on amicably, and sooner than later.

I have no idea where Kolek stands as of now as a professional basketball player, especially after one 14-minute preseason stint. I did notice a similar vibe to the one he gave off in Summer League play, i.e. the vibe of one who steps onto a court with nine NBA players and considers himself right at home. This is a confident cat, this Kolek.

He doesn’t defend like McBride (few do). As of today, October 9th, 2024, he’s certainly not a like-for-like upgrade over Deuce. But he’s a young Thibodeau-type player who plays like he thinks he belongs. He’ll work with a player development staff that’s been doing a lot of good work the past 4-5 years. It’s not impossible to envision a future with Kolek running some point so Brunson can focus more on scoring while getting a breather off-ball. It’s not impossible to envision it paying off. When the Knicks are contenders, nothing seems impossible.