Everything you ever wanted to know about the Dallas Mavs’ 2024 1st-round draft pick owed to the Knicks
Last year it seemed in New York’s grasp, only to slip away in scandalous fashion. Why this year should be different.
You know when you’re in bed with someone, and the getting’s been good, and just when you can’t imagine it getting any better they touch your – well, fill in the blank for yourself; we’re all different. Where Knicks fans come together is in our joy for the state of the union: not only is the varsity team kicking ass and taking names all across this great stolen land of ours, the front office may have two first-round picks to work with come June. That’s an obvious advantage should New York find itself finally ready to consummate the big trade for Messiah X, but it works just as well if the team adds some new blood/cheap, controllable contracts. Of course, for any of this to apply, the Dallas Mavericks have to hold up their end.
A year ago the Knicks looked likely to land the Mavs’ 2023 pick, until a late-season Texas tank job of such enormity it made the Battle of Kursk look like Atari’s Combat. A year and four days ago, to be precise, the Mavericks won a one-point squeaker over the Lakers to stand 36-35, with both teams fighting for a play-in spot. Then Dallas – the same organization that outsmarted itself by giving up on the only championship team in their history and then mostly sucking for a decade – decided betting on Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving was a sucker’s game and threw in the towel, losing nine of their last 11 to miss the playoffs by one game. The Lakers, who trailed the Mavs by two games after that late-season loss, rallied to win 10 of their last 12 and get all the way to the Western finals. Apparently not giving up can pay off.
So what about now? Where do the Mavs stand in the season’s final weeks? What are the chances the Knicks get their pick this year? Who might they draft if they do? Funny you should ask; I just wrote this here article touching on all those subjects.
What’s their schedule look like?
As of Thursday, the Mavericks have 13 games left. They’re right on the line between the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot and finishing seventh or eighth and landing in the Play-in. Sacramento, Phoenix and Dallas have been like the three blind witches from stories who share one eye between them: every couple weeks one seems to gain steam, if not clarity, before they stumble and one of the other two goes on a run. The Kings and Suns are tied 2-2 in the season series, with their final meeting the penultimate game of the year, in Sacramento. The Mavs have already won the season series against the Suns, but if they lose either of their final two games against the Kings they’ll lose that tiebreaker.
The Mavs host Utah tonight, then go on a five-game road trip that opens in Utah, followed by consecutive games at Sacramento and trips to Houston and Golden State. Next comes a three-game homestand against the Hawks, Warriors and Rockets. Then they’re at Charlotte and Miami before hosting Detroit and ending the year at Oklahoma City. It’s a pretty friendly schedule for a team that (so far) shows no signs of giving up again.
The hardest game left could be at the Thunder, although if the Thunder or Nuggets have wrapped up the top seed by then it could very well be a meaningless game for OKC, a potential break for the Mavs. Other than that, they only play three of the other dozen games against teams you could call solid, all on the road: two at the Kings, one at the Heat. Otherwise it’s a pair against the mercurial Warriors, a home date with the Hawks and the other seven against mostly loser teams. The Rockets in Houston are no joke, nor the Jazz in Utah, but neither are they teams to fear. The less said about Charlotte and Detroit, the better.
It’s hard to imagine Dallas winning fewer than six or seven of their remaining games; that’d put them at 46-47 wins. The Mavs own the tiebreaker against the Lakers and will against the Warriors if they split their last two matchups. For SoCal or NoCal to reach 47 wins, they’d have to go 10-3 or 12-3; neither has had a run like that this season. It would appear the Mavericks will at least reach the Play-in tournament this season. Hang it from the rafters!
What might the Knicks end up with?
The Mavs’ first-round pick becomes the Knicks’ if the Mavs make the playoffs or are eliminated in the right way. What does that mean? Glad you asked, because my middle-aged brain had to literally sit down with a note pad and pen and write it all out like I was back in college solving proofs.
If Dallas makes the playoffs, their pick becomes New York’s and will land somewhere between 15th and 22nd. The 14 teams who miss the playoffs or get knocked out of the Play-in go to the lottery. The worst record to make the playoffs picks 15th. The Mavs could conceivably pass the Kings in the West, but that’s it; they’re not leapfrogging the Pelicans. In the East the Celtics, Bucks and Cavaliers all seem strong bets to win more games than the Mavericks; I don’t think they’ll pass the Knicks or Magic, but it’s at least possible. In all likelihood, if Dallas makes the playoffs their pick will be between 15 and 20.
Lottery shenanigans are always possible, but if the Mavs were to get knocked out in the Play-in and not have their pick jump to the top-three, the Knicks would land something between 11 and 14. Don’t bother dreaming of #10 – that’d require Dallas losing enough the rest of this season to fall to 10th, then Chicago and/or Atlanta making the playoffs in the East. The road to hell is paved with good intentions; the road to losing parlays starts with believing in the Hawks and the Bulls.
What else is at stake for Dallas?
Remember: in all our contemplations about best- and worst-case scenarios, the biggest has nothing to do with this year’s possible pick swap. If the Mavericks are eliminated in the Play-in, losing a choice draft choice to the franchise they’ve been laughing at while lagging behind for five years will be the least of their worries. Dončić spent half a decade with them before this season, and four of those years they failed to win a single playoff series. Those same four years, Dončić was All-NBA First Team every time and finished between fourth and eighth in MVP voting.
Back when your parents or your grandparents were young, the great slugger Ralph Kiner was due for a contract negotiation with the Pittsburgh Pirates; then, as now, the Pirates were unbearably cheap, and bad. Not Kiner: after leading the National League in home runs as a rookie in 1946, he’d lead the majors in dingers the next six seasons. The story goes that Kiner walked in to general manager Branch Rickey’s office thinking a raise was a given and was floored when Rickey told him no. “We finished last with you,” Rickey told him, “we can finish last without you.”
If the Mavericks miss the playoffs entirely, Luka will know – bitterly – that it’s happened with him playing at an MVP-level. Again. Could he pull a reverse Kiner and tell the team, “You sucked with me; you can suck without me”? What’s he hanging around for? Kyrie miracles notwithstanding, Irving’s a lock for another season playing fewer than 70 games, a mark he hasn’t hit in seven years. And Kyrie isn’t anywhere close to the biggest question mark – that’d be the rest of the roster.
The drop from Irving to whoever the third-best Mav will give you vertigo. The trade deadline additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford didn’t really raise the Mavs’ floor any; they’ve hovered around the playoff/play-in divide before and after the deals. Whether they raise the Mavs’ ceiling will be decided in the postseason, which for Dallas will either begin in Denver, Oklahoma City or Minnesota. What are the odds they beat any of them? What are the odds Luka starts looking elsewhere if they don’t?
In addition to *hopefully* having no first-round pick this summer, the Mavs don’t project to have any cap space to do anything. Literally: they’re hard-capped right now, meaning they can’t exceed the $172 million limit, not by one haypenny, yet every single one of their players is under contract next season. Well, not every one: Derrick Jones Jr. will be a free agent, but he’s their 12th-highest paid player. You know who’s the Knicks’ 12th-highest paid player? Miles McBride. The Mavs you see now are the Mavs you’re gonna be seeing for a while, unless they make more trades. Easier said than done.
They shipped two first-round picks in the Washington and Gafford moves and will likely lose this year’s to the Knicks. After Luka and Kyrie, what value do any of their players have in a trade? Derrick Lively Jr. is promising, but only 19, and more a complementary piece at this viewing than foundational. Tim Hardaway Jr. will be an expiring contract next season, which will probably mean more to a team acquiring him than his game. Gafford, Washington and Maxi Kleber are all on the books the next two seasons, Josh Green for three. As war chests go, that’s a few doubloons short of a bounty.
Who are some players the Knicks could draft with the Mavericks’ pick?
Let’s leave our neighbors to their imminent divorce and instead focus on our bounty. The Knicks are probably going to have two picks somewhere between 11 and 22. We’re still a couple of months from the peak of draft season, but Strickland draftianado Prez has a stash to keep you in the current till your fix arrives. Here’s his synopses of some intriguing names that could be available in the mid-first round.
Hunter Sallis (Wake Forest)
“A smooth shooting, versatile 6-foot-5 guard who apparently just needed a change of scenery to finally cash in on his high school recruiting rank and scoring potential after transferring from Gonzaga to Wake Forest.”
DaRon Holmes II (Dayton)
“An offense-first center, the center enjoys extreme offensive freedom with the Flyers, with good reason: he dominates the NCAA with a mix of post-ups, scoring off the bounce after bringing the ball up, drawing a ton of fouls and draining spot-up threes.”
Kevin McCullar (Kansas)
“A perennial NCAA Defensive Player Of the Year candidate, the 23-year-old old senior helped shoulder the offense for Kansas as well this year, using a mix of physical drives, athletic cutting, timely passing and an effective but ugly jumper.”
Kel’el Ware (Indiana)
“A true 7-footer plying his trade for none other than Mike Woodson, Ware uses his size, strength and length to own the glass, score in the post, lock down the rim and occasionally stroke an open jumper. While he hasn't fully fulfilled the stretch 5 potential he had entering college, it may not be far off.”
Tristan Da Silva (Colorado)
“A-23-year-old big wing who, on the surface, seems tailor made to be an NBA role player: he knocks down open threes, plays versatile defense and makes great decisions without biting off more than he can chew.”
Jared McCain (Duke)
“An absolutely elite shooter who may be a bit lacking in size for the 2-spot and in ball handling as a 1, the question for Jared is whether his high IQ can overcome his physical limitations as a defender.”
Yves Missi (Baylor)
“An 18-year-old center with the body of an NBA vet, Missi is a physical specimen with the skill and ambition to take defenders off the bounce before overwhelming them with his athleticism. On defense he is bit undersized, but his incredible physical gifts may make up for it.”
There’s your update for now, Knicks fans. Check back with The Strickland’s draft crew for tons more coverage later this spring. And Luka, if you ever wanna rap with someone about life after Dallas lets you down, give Jalen Brunson a ring. It gets better.
