Five Things With Frank | ‘24-’25 #2|
The Knicks’ first two games could not have gone more differently. Those differences — and this article — suggest what they want (and need) to do differently the next 80
“Those old pious sisters were right/The worst part is over/now get back on that horse and ride”
– “Turn On Me,” The Shins
Despite what some may have told you last Tuesday night, the sky is NOT falling. The Knicks, who enter this season with lofty goals, were humbled in their season opener against the defending champion Boston Celtics. After allowing an NBA-record 29 3-pointers (which somehow understates the onslaught, as Boston missed its last 13), the Knicks returned home to face the rival Indiana Pacers. Apparently that was all they needed. The Knicks dismantled Indiana by controlling the tempo of the game from start to finish.
Was that the breakthrough they needed? What other improvements does this team need to make as the season goes on? Let’s dive into this week’s five things . . .
1) Will the real Knicks please stand up?
As alluded to above, the Knicks played arguably the most polarizing consecutive games you’ll see in an NBA season, featuring a 48-point difference in points allowed and 26 fewer threes for Indiana than Boston. Which was more reflective of reality? As with most things in life, the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
The Knicks are not 23 points worse than Boston, but they’re probably not 25 points better than Indiana, either. Some quick analysis of the betting markets shows what happened in Boston wasn’t some eye-opening revelation. The Knicks still stand third in best odds to win the championship – exactly where they were before the Boston massacre. But I don’t think the answer lies exactly in the middle.
With New York trying to infuse two new important pieces in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, as well as figure out a temporary rotation with their top-two centers, Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, both injured, it’s reasonable to expect bumps and bruises to start the season. The team will build chemistry and continue to sharpen the edges. What we saw against Boston was a team playing a suboptimal style of basketball, especially defensively, running into a buzzsaw. What we saw against Indiana was a team playing to its potential. Or approaching it.
Did they catch some breaks? Sure. Indiana missed much easier threes than some of the ones Boston made. Sometimes that’s how it rolls. But I expect the Knicks to much more closely resemble the team we saw pound the Pacers than the one that had some fans panicking against the Celtics.
2) 3-point defense
So how did the Knicks go from allowing one high-powered opponent’s offense to hit 29 threes to another making just 3? It starts with a change in philosophy. After the disaster in Boston, I made this thread breaking down their 3-point defense:
The thrust was simple: the Celtics exploited the Knicks’ tendency to overhelp. Almost any time a Celtic got two feet in the paint, a second Knick was there to help keep them from getting to the basket. This style of defense — stunt and recover — is a Tom Thibodeau staple. He puts a lot of pressure on his guys to make the proper rotations because he truly believes that the most important principle of NBA defense is protecting the rim. The issue is that some teams are so efficient at moving the ball and shooting open 3-pointers that the math doesn’t always work out. Sometimes it is better to risk giving up a shot closer to the basket rather than an open three – and the Celtics push that to the limit, deploying five capable 3-point shooters at all times.
Indiana doesn’t quite have the shooting Boston does, but they’re built similarly, looking to penetrate and create an advantage, forcing a help defender to rotate down to create an open three. They also have a maestro of a point guard in Tyrese Haliburton, who can sometimes create open looks out of thin air. This was a team that was second in offensive rating last season and brought back its entire roster. They have youth, continuity, and scheme on their side. So how did the Knicks stifle them?
This reminded me of what Boston did to the Knicks. Does this possession end in two points for Indiana? Sure. But this is a look that the Knicks are happy to give up consistently. More importantly, look at how the off-ball defenders react to Andrew Nembhard’s snake dribble. Nembhard is deep in the paint, but all four defenders stay glued to their respective man.
This represented a stark departure from the defense the Knicks played opening night. Will Thibodeau ever be a man to totally devalue protecting the paint? Probably not. But I don’t think anyone should ask him to. This isn’t a binary. You don’t help all the time, nor can you never help. There’s a balance required. The Knicks came a lot closer to walking that balance beam against Indiana than Boston.
3) How to create more 3-pointers for Brunson and KAT?
While we’re on the topic of 3-pointers, it’s worth noting that Towns and Jalen Brunson combined to attempt just seven (making five) against Indiana. While that almost doubled the four they combined for against Boston, it’s barely half what they combined to attempt per 36 minutes last season. What’s going on? For starters, the Knicks miss Julius Randle.
Even including Brunson, Randle had been the Knicks’ best creator of 3-pointers for teammates the past two seasons. The attention he drew due to his size, athleticism, and efficiency around the rim, combined with his passing ability after forcing defenses to collapse, was what the Knicks relied upon to create threes. Brunson is many things, but with his size a limiting factor he’s not in the upper echelon of passing guards. And now almost all of the pressure is on him to create the advantages not only for himself, but to make sure his teammates stay involved as well. So what do the Knicks do?
Towns was brought in because the Knicks wanted more space. The early returns are positive. Brunson is getting to the rim more and finishing at a much higher efficiency than he ever has as a Knick. But there are ways for the Knicks to emphasize space even more.
The easiest would be to play Deuce McBride more. McBride, shooting a preposterous 86% from deep (small samples are fun!), appears to have carried over his hot shooting from last season into this one. As we learned in Boston, when you deploy five legitimate shooters there are no good choices for the defense. If Brunson and Towns run a pick & roll, you can’t send a third defender to help without risking a very good shooter shooting an open 3-pointer.
Another option is to let the Knicks’ weak link of a spacer, Josh Hart, initiate more of the possessions. If you pay close attention, you’ll notice that almost any time the Knicks create an advantage when Hart is on the court, it’s Hart’s defender roaming to plug the leak. Teams just don’t fear he can consistently beat them. There are, of course, advantages to this for the Knicks.
Sometimes Hart is left so open he’s able to punish the defense. Other times when he’s ignored, he has a runway to the basket for an offensive rebound. But the macro data on this subject and the impact his presence off-ball has on his teammates is very loud. If Hart, a good passer in his own right, has the ball in his hands, the defense is forced to use a different defender as their roamer.
Towns’ arrival was meant to signal a philosophical evolution. He may not do what Randle can with the ball in his hands, but what he does give as a shooter and spacer is supposed to mean more on the net. How the Knicks offense evolves to get Towns and Brunson more 3-point opportunities could very well dictate their ceiling.
4) Will the Knicks struggle with size?
You may not have noticed, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a scorching start. Not only have they matched the 3-0 starts of Boston and Los Angeles (the yellow ones), they’ve outscored their opponents by more than either. To be fair, they’ve played three teams that project to be near the bottom of the East, but blowout wins in today’s NBA are always impressive – especially with two coming on the road this early in the season, when almost every fanbase is excited about their team. Yet the Cavs continue to struggle with their own philosophical quandary.
As the NBA gets smaller and more perimeter-oriented, the Cavaliers have zagged starting two centers in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, as well as a third big man in Dean Wade who would be a power forward in most other team constructions. Simply put, the Cavs are big. Two years ago this played into the Knicks’ hands, because the Knicks had the size to counter and the skill to exploit their more pronounced deficiencies. But with the Knicks getting smaller, is it possible Cleveland will be a more difficult matchup than in the past? A lot will depend on the evolution of Evan Mobley, who has started the season very strong.
As teams do with Hart, Mobley has historically been one of the Cavaliers that – offensively – Thibodeau looks to exploit. He doesn’t care if Mobley shoots jump shots of any kind and has shown little respect for Mobley in the short roll, where he struggled mightily against New York in the 2023 playoffs. The Knicks also collectively bullied Mobley on the glass, creating over 40 extra possessions over the Cavaliers in the postseason. For Mobley to leverage his size and skills to punish the Knicks, he has to be more of a force on the boards on both ends, hit the open shots that will be given to him and force Thibodeau to care that he has a massive size advantage over any Knick besides Towns. The second that happens, a domino effect begins that will work in the Cavaliers’ favor.
But being small has its advantages too! Only one of Allen and Mobley can guard Towns (a player who usually starts on the perimeter anyway), so who will the other guard? Likely Hart, but how will they handle that? Will they utilize a heavy exploitative strategy and ignore Hart off-ball entirely? Maybe. But Hart has shown counters to that as a screener, driver and by crashing the glass with an open runway.
Another problem the Cavaliers present is a rare backcourt with two highly-skilled initiators in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, who both require attention. While Hart and Mikal Bridges both performed admirably against Indiana, the Knicks are clearly more comfortable against wings than guards, as it brings OG Anunoby, their best defender, more into the fold. I expect both Garland and Mitchell to be more comfortable against the Knicks than they were against previous iterations of this team, especially operating inside the arc.
5) The depth & minutes conundrums
It went mostly unnoticed (most things do when you win so handily), but the Knicks basically played a 7-man rotation in the non-garbage time minutes Friday. The Pacôme Dadiet minutes were scrapped entirely, while Jericho Sims played just 10 of the first 42 minutes. The final minutes total didn’t reflect it (though Hart did end up playing 37 minutes), but consider that Anunoby didn’t play the final 8 minutes of the game while Hart and Bridges sat the last 6 minutes.
I said it before the season and will keep saying it: true staggering is not Thibodeau’s way. His answer to shallow wing depth is to just play his guys longer shifts. Bridges played the first 15:31 of the game, then got a reprieve in the second half, only playing the first 14:30. Remember: this was a game the Knicks were leading by 16 at halftime and had pushed to 30 in the third. What is going to happen when games are close?
Maybe Thibodeau is just biding time until the players he knows he can trust return. Maybe newly-acquired Matt Ryan will get some run on the wing, though there is concern about sustainability there. These minutes add up. And God forbid one of the key players in an already tight rotation gets nicked up; the minutes will add up even more.
Some may deem this an overreaction – it’s only been two games! But there’s a relevant track record here. The Knicks need to obtain depth pieces, particularly on the wing, that Thibodeau will play, and they need to do it fast. I’m skeptical that Hart, Bridges and Anunoby can make it through this season at this rate, but even if they make it through the season unscathed, how much will they have in the tank come the playoffs? This team was built to contend for many seasons to come. How might future seasons be affected by this year’s approach?
These are things that all have to be considered now, as the Knicks look to knock on the doorstep of their first championship in 51 years. Like it or not, the Knicks fancy themselves legitimate contenders. It’s time to start acting like it.
