Free Agent Profile: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdan in a dandan bog.
Miranda: In 524 B.C., Cambyses the Second (no relation to Marcus) ordered his army into western Egypt to destroy the Oracle of Ammon. 50,000 soldiers entered the desert near the city of Luxor. They were never seen again. Herodotus wrote that an enormous sandstorm swallowed them whole.
The Knicks haven’t done any better this century, especially from deep. Since 2015-16, they’ve ranked 20th, 21st, 27th, 28th and 27th in 3-point accuracy, all while the three-ball becomes more and more integral to modern offenses. The NBA’s a copycat arms race and the Knicks keep showing up to the firing range with a broken slingshot. This offseason they should consider a Serbian by way of Sacramento to upgrade their arsenal.
Bogdan Bogdanović — you may know him better as Богдан Богдановић — turns 28 this month. At 6-foot-6 with a healthy 6-foot-11 wingspan, Bogdanović split his minutes at the 2 and 3 spot. He kinda looks like Noah Wyle when he smiles. Wylie’s kindly features often typecast him as a good guy. Out on the hardwood, Bogdanović is a baaad man.
A deft shooter and unselfish teammate, he averaged 15 points per game and more than twice as many assists as turnovers. You know how many Knicks scored 10-plus per game with an AST/TO ratio of at least 2:1? None. He also dished eight or more assists in 10% of his games last year, a higher mark than every Knick point guard besides Elfrid Payton. Still, Bogie’s not looking at a thick fat pay raise because of his passing chops.
This isn’t just another stand-out stand-still shooter. My man does it off the dribble, too.
Over his first three seasons, Bogdanović cut down on his midrange and long-midrange looks while upping his 3-point attempts, though not at the expense of efficiency. Last year he shot an exceptional 55% between 16 feet and the 3-point line, and though he took more threes than ever before, he still hit 37%, a tick higher than the year before. What’s your take on the league’s premier non-Bojan Bogdanović, Zach?
Zach: Bogdanović, whose last name will need to be copy-pasted several dozen times in the coming paragraphs, is a good player! Professor Miranda succinctly demonstrated his shooting prowess, which is the basis for his entire offensive game. It may be inappropriate to describe him as an elite shooter, depending on your definition, but the guy is unquestionably one of the best available shooters on the market — 37% from three on nine attempts per 36 minutes is a remarkable combination of efficiency and volume. He has enough off-the-dribble verve to leverage his shooting ability effectively, combining a good-enough handle with excellent touch to confound defenders. As a passer, Bogdanović is... well... fine. It’s not his forte, but he’s not exactly TJ Warren, either. Overall, he’s an unquestionable upgrade on offense for a Knicks team desperate for floor spacing. As an overall player, he comps favorably in terms of both role and effectiveness to Knicks legend J.R. Smith.
The questions with Bogdanović in a vacuum revolve around two key details — his defense, and his contract.
Defensively, I’m going to cop-out. I feel unqualified to speak on this definitively without diving into hours of film (that’s coming in the future, but not just yet). I feel confident that Bogdanović is probably passable to below average on defense — if he was any good, the Kings would have signed him to an extension by now, even with the drama. But his offensive prowess is what you’re signing him for, and he doesn’t seem to be a total turnstile on the other end.
The real variable is the contract, and this is where things get tough. Bogdanović is a restricted free agent, meaning the Kings can opt to match any offer he receives. This typically means the team trying to pry away an RFA has to overpay, and overpay substantially. Congratulations, every single one of you is now thinking about Tim Hardaway Jr. (as you should!). After all, those who do not learn from their history are doomed to repeat it.
Therefore, while I view Bogdanović as an upgrade in basically every possible way, it would be EXTREMELY PRUDENT to avoid falling into the same trap. Bogdanović is good, but middle-tier players must be on affordable contracts in order to return value (whether that’s via trade, or directly with the team). I suspect it’s going to be hard to strike that balance with Bogdanović given his current circumstances. He supposedly wants out, and the Kings appear to have committed to Buddy Hield already, but the Kings hold all the cards here — guaranteeing Bogdan’s name on the Knicks roster means guaranteeing Bogdan too much money. Full stop.
(Also, it’s important to remember that, despite playing only three NBA seasons, Bogdanović is actually 28 years old — it’s completely reasonable to assume he’s already in his prime. Restricted free agency usually comes with the potential and mystery of youthful upside, but that is not quite the case with Bogdanović.)
On the other hand... the Kings aren’t exactly known for being a breeding ground for young talent. It’s certainly possible Bogdanović is better than he appears. Is that a bet you’re willing to take?
All in all, Bogdanović is a talented player who is going to get a fat check from SOMEONE. I’m just not sure the Knicks should be the one writing it.
Miranda: Short of Sacramento doing something nobody sees coming — in other words, being Sacramento — it’s hard to see them being able to retain Bogdanović, no matter how willing they are. The Kings still owe Harrison Barnes $60 million over the next three seasons, $85 million over four to Hield, plus De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley are due new deals over the next two summers. Fox and Bagley seem like franchise cornerstones, and not many teams are salivating over Barnes, so while no one knows how the salary cap will be calculated or smoothed post-COVID, unless Sacramento decides Bogdan > Buddy they may have no choice but to let him go.
I wonder if the draft will impact the Knicks’ feelings on Bogdanović. Other than Devin Vassell, there aren’t many players linked to New York with the eighth pick who are shooting wings. If New York ends up with an Isaac Okoro or Cole Anthony, the need for a floor-spacer will grow even more pronounced. We’ll see if they upgrade with the kid from Belgrade.
