Game Day: Knicks vs. Hawks, Game 1, 5/23/21 (series preview edition)
The Knicks take the floor tonight for their first playoff game in eight seasons. What will be the keys to the series against Atlanta? New contributor Geoff Rasmussen breaks down the key Knicks storylines for the series.
The New York Knicks are back in the playoffs! Doesn’t that sound terrific? For the first time in almost a decade, meaningful basketball returns to the Mecca. Let’s dive in!
Two players, two sides. One is light, one is dark
On paper, these two teams are very evenly matched up. The New York Knicks, who entered the season with one of the league’s lowest over/unders at 22.5, shocked the world and nearly doubled their expected win total, going 41-31. The Atlanta Hawks, fresh off one of the league’s most active offseasons, matched them at exactly 41-31. Both teams also happen to sport identical net ratings at +2.3, while also having almost the same SRS (a rating that factors in your strength of schedule and point differential).
Stylistically, however, these two teams could not be more different. While both teams are near the bottom of the league in pace (the Knicks are 30th, Hawks are 23rd), the Knicks do their damage defensively — fourth in defensive rating at 107.8 — while the Hawks are carried by their offense — ninth in offensive rating at 114.3. The Hawks tend to rely on their depth, adjusting their rotations often, while the Knicks have effectively run the same rotation all season long. So what are we in store for? What do the Knicks need to do to advance to the Conference Semifinals?
Clint Capela: The Hawks’ MVP?
While Trae Young gets the majority of the Hawks notoriety, center Clint Capela is the one who sticks out when you break down film. Young is a tremendous offensive player, but he is very reliant on drawing fouls (something that statistically decreases in the postseason) and is extremely exploitable on defense. I don’t foresee the Knicks stopping him (more on that later), but I do think they have ways to make his life difficult. Capela, however, is another story.
Here, RJ Barrett starts with an easy blow-by past the Hawks’ Kevin Huerter. While his drive is slowed a touch by the help of Trae Young, this should be an advantageous situation. But Capela, roaming around the rim, negates this advantage with an easy drop down into the paint. It should be noted that Bogdan Bogdanovic, another subpar defender in the Hawks’ rotation, overhelps, leaving Reggie Bullock, the Knicks’ best 3-point shooter, alone in the corner. While Barrett is capable of capitalizing on this with a wrap-around pass, Capela makes this difficult, positioning his body perfectly.
This is a simple play for Capela, but one that is symbolic of a bigger issue the Knicks face. Elfrid Payton and Nerlens Noel, who share the court almost 100% of their minutes, are non-offensive threats. You can get by with one of those types of players, but two is untenable. Fortunately for the Knicks, the Hawks don’t have an abundance of elite individual defenders to overly exploit this weakness. However, Capela, a fringe Defensive Player of the Year candidate, is one who can.
Here we have an even more impressive individual performance by Capela. Barrett, once again, beats his man off the bounce, and this time his surrounding teammates create much more space in the lane for him to operate. Capela is forced to leave his man entirely to tag Barrett’s drive and Lou Williams, Barrett’s original defender, is a bit lazy recovering onto Gibson. Capela makes his presence known, dissuading Barrett from attempting a shot around the rim, then uses his hands to steal Barrett’s pass to a diving Gibson. Very well done.
And finally, the Knicks cede a wide open three to Bogdanovic, and two Knicks end up on Capela. Nevertheless, Capela finds an offensive rebound, as he tends to do, and sets up a Hawks basket. And this is what makes Capela so damn dangerous. He screens, he dives, he fights for every rebound, he protects the rim. He does all of this without the Hawks having to call a single play for him. If the Knicks are going to win this series, they are going to have to devote a tremendous amount of effort to keeping Capela off of the offensive glass, and do their best to negate his elite rim protection. Fortunately, the Knicks have a weapon of their own.
Julius Randle: The Phoenix
Enough words have been devoted to Randle’s wonderful season. Not just the greatness of the season itself, but the story of it. How he’s changed his mentality and proved his doubters wrong. I won’t rehash what any Knicks fan who has lived through this sublime year already knows, but I do feel the need to point one element of his season out; many fans, myself included, thought that Obi Toppin was drafted to replace Randle. It’s amazing just how much things can change in less than six months.
Re-watching the last Hawks/Knicks game, there was one trend that stood out above them all that felt big for the Knicks — the Hawks do not have anyone to guard Randle. As the game got deeper and deeper, Randle kept finding mismatches. Whether it was Huerter, Bogdanovic, or Solomon freaking Hill, Randle kept getting matched up against guys who had no chance against him. And, as expected, he got wherever he wanted, finishing the game with 40 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists.
This isn’t even fair. Even with Young able to help off of Payton to disrupt Randle’s drive, he still ends up with an uncontested five footer.
Another matchup advantage, another possession where Randle gets exactly where he wants. These plays may not seem special, but if you look at Randle’s shot charts this season, you’ll notice that an abnormal percentage of Randle’s output came from outside the paint. He was, basically, a midrange killer.
But Randle remains at his best when he is attacking the basket, and the Hawks are a team he should be able to get there against. So, while it may go without saying that in order for the Knicks to advance, they need their best player to show up, pay close attention to how much Randle takes advantage of these weaker matchups.
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The Elfrid Payton conundrum
Speaking of things there have been more than enough words devoted to. I’m done hoping for the day to come this season when Tom Thibodeau sees Payton for the anchor he is. For whatever reason, Thibodeau seems determined to go down with this particular ship, one who rocked a sub-50% TS% for the second consecutive season. The fact that the Knicks allow seven more points per 100 possessions when Payton is on the court? Who cares? They need his defense! The fact that the Knicks have a superior defender who shot 45% from three this year, who enters the Hawks series with a barely existent role in the rotation? Crickets.
So yeah, as you can tell, this does not bother me at all and I am done thinking about it. Instead, I am going to prepare Knick fans for what they may be in store for, and how Payton can subvert expectations and provide (relatively) positive value. Note: “relatively” is important here — it is damn near impossible for Payton to be a positive player. He will not outplay Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, or Alec Burks. It is nonsensical that he is the team’s starting point guard.
OK, we can work with this. Payton does a number of positive things here that Knick fans have found few and far between with him. First, he hustles back on defense after a turnover, then he baits Young into making a difficult pass and uses his reflexes to intercept it. Does he stop there? No! Payton takes the initiative and races the ball up the floor, creating an open three on the early break for Bullock. Well done.
Yuck. Look at the Hawks completely ignoring his aimless cut into the lane after he dumps the ball into Randle. He might as well not be out there. Then, he takes advantage of a flat-footed Young, who is barely paying attention, but the damage has been done. The paint is so packed that even though he catches the ball five feet from the basket, he is immediately triple teamed and forced into a turnover.
This may seem simple, but if you’ve watched the Knicks this year you know it’s been anything but that. Payton has a career high USG% this year, but a career low AST%. There are very few guards in the league whose drives end with a shot more often than Payton. Not good for someone so inefficient. If the Knicks are going to tread water during Payton’s minutes, he has to look to distribute far more than usual.
Get used to this, folks. Payton has shown little interest in fighting over screens all year. You’d have to imagine that the Hawks know this and will look to run pick-and-roll as often as possible with Payton on the floor.
It may seem like overkill to some of you to devote a section of this to Payton. As I alluded to earlier, the point has been driven into the ground. But, the Knicks perform 12.5 points per 100 possessions better with Rose than Payton. They perform 9.5 points better with Burks on the floor, and eight points better with Quickley on the floor. In the postseason, margins get smaller, and each possession becomes more important. If Thibodeau continues sticking him out there for 15 minutes a night, I genuinely believe his minutes may be what win or lose this series. They’re that important. He must be better.
In conclusion
The more I research this matchup, the more it scares me. One aspect that I don’t think gets talked about much is that Thibodeau’s propensity for treating every game like a playoff game, leaves little room for improvement at the next stage. A next level may not exist for this team because Thibs has spent all season squeezing every drop of water out of this rock. The Hawks, on the other hand, are finally healthy, and have not spent all season treating every game like a playoff game. More efficient schemes and crisper rotations are just a few things that may not have existed throughout the regular season that could come to fruition in the postseason.
Despite that, I cannot help but feel optimistic. The Knicks’ offense, once a liability, spent the last two months of the regular season flourishing. Gone was the team struggling nightly to put up points, replaced by one that shot and made threes with the best of them. No team attempted a higher percentage of their threes from the corner. And if this Knicks team has done one thing this season, it is this — they have earned our trust. A trust that they will be prepared. A trust that they will leave it all on the court. A trust that, despite any stretches of inefficiency or rotational inadequacy, they will find themselves at the end of the game, with a chance to win. Maybe that’s enough.
Knicks in 7
Today’s game is at 7 p.m. on both TNT and MSG (with Clyde and Breen! You know where to go). Come hang with us on Twitter during the game, and if you want an even more immersive experience, check out the HotMic app and join us there for a live watch party!
