Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Lack of Ping Pong Balls

Knicks fans. We are a dramatic bunch. We’ve been through a lot. And yet, this season we treaded – faithfully and nervously -- through uncharted waters. Or at least, not recently charted. The Knicks won a bunch! With winning came expectations, and with expectations can come stress and uncertainty. People cope in different ways. My choice was to often disengage and not watch live (blasphemy, I know). Despite the season ending on a sour note in South Beach, the future remains bright for this particular bunch. In my estimation, the 2023 season was a wild success — period. Let the loss to Miami sting a bit, sure, but don’t lose sight of the bigger truth: we remain on a close-to-ideal path as a young franchise, with sights on something great. 

So what happened next? With the wound of a playoff loss still fresh, with armchair GM-ing in full effect, and with playoff basketball being played in Denver, the NBA still held their draft lottery. How rude! The result? The Spurs won the greatest prize of all, generational talent Victor Wembanyama. 

At the same time, while everyone in the NBA world was distracted by the gigantic Frenchmen,  Mark Cuban and Nico Harrison were probably cackling greedily at Cuban’s home in Preston Hollow (which sounds like it a place with old buildings haunted by rich white ghosts). Why would these villains be so heinously happy? Because they managed to hold onto the 10th pick in the draft, which would have belonged to the Knicks if one of the two following things happened:

1. One of the teams with 11th-14th odds leapfrogged into the top 4, displacing the Mavericks from 10th to a lower spot, causing their top-10 protected pick to convey to the Knicks, or

2. Barry Allen desperately altered the 2023 timeline in attempt to save his late mother and prevented the Mavericks from pulling off a historic collapse/shameless tank job combo, avoiding a very up-for-grabs play-in spot while employing two healthy Hall of Famers (one who is generational, the other in the prime of his career), sparing Mavericks fans the need to shamefully pretend their late-season crumble was akin to normal rebuilding behavior. 

Sadly, neither of those things happened, so many a Knick fan bemoaned that even when we win, we lose — a familiar refrain on the heels of the loss to the Heat. That top-10 protected pick had an EXTREMELY high chance of conveying; the Mavs basically just needed to make the playoffs with two stars in a weak Western conference. Since it didn’t convey this year, next, year it is again top-10 protected.

I’m here to offer a bit of an alternative perspective — that things are probably fine, and further, we probably have some new opportunities because of these circumstances. There are, obviously, reasons to be disappointed. No one in the online Knicks draft community was as invested in Cam Whitmore or Taylor Hendricks potentially falling to the Knicks at 11 as me. I mean that in earnest. Both of those players would have been top-5 prospects on my 2022 board. Very few people were more invested in the potential of this year’s class, if you go by my favorite metric: hours spent hosting Knicks draft podcasts. 

We went through something similar last year, watching the Knicks trade the 12th pick in a series of transactions netting three future first-round picks and cap space. How’d that work out?

Anyhow, enough copium from me. What are these alleged silver linings? Let me count them for you.

1) Development constraints for a draft pick

I firmly believe that picks need to play to develop. We’ve seen that on our own team, and across the league it is rare for teams to barely play picks and have them explode later on. There are a few; Anfernee Simons comes to mind. Most of those guys are later picks, which are a bit special because they don’t have the decree for playing time that comes with being a lottery pick. 

This team doesn’t have a ton of minutes to go around, particularly at the 1-2-3 spots. New York’s strength is its depth, in the form of Immauel Quickley (plays the 1 and 2), Josh Hart (plays the 2 and 3), Deuce McBride (plays the 1 and 2) and Isaiah Hartenstein (plays the 5). Obi Toppin, stuck behind Julius Randle, is likely on his way out, which frees up some big wing or small big minutes. As a result, many Knicks draftniks had their eye on the bigger wings in the class, as even talented guards would have trouble outproducing the Knicks formidable bench, themselves a young bunch. Would that increase the odds of this front office moving the 11th pick? Yes. Does it mean whoever we picked would likely not play much next year or the year after? Yep. Does that make developing said pick successfully less likely? Yes! Not even close to impossible, of course, but yes, it does make it tougher. Is that annoying? Sure, but you know what’s more annoying? A shitty bench on a team competing to be good right now. 

2) Depth of the class

The way this draft is laid out, there is essentially a top-11 or so, and then everyone else. But if you consider guards or extremely young players tougher pills to swallow, you’re really looking at a top tier of 6-8 players. The best players after that who could help the Knicks now and be awesome in the future are probably as likely to be found at 16, 26 or 36 as 11. In any mock draft you stumble upon, there is someone in the 20s who I have in my lottery. So if the Knicks (who have a history of maneuvering in the margins of the draft) want to buy or trade their way into the late first round – or even the early second, which contains first-round level prospects – this is as good a class as any to do it. 

3) Might a Knick become a late first-round pick? 

Yes, probably Obi Toppin, but who knows? In the 20s, multiple teams who are in the rebuilding phase have multiple picks and may prefer a buy low on Toppin. The Pacers have a lottery pick and two picks in the 20s. The Rockets also have a top-10 pick and several later selections. Brooklyn has two picks in the 20s and is about to commit to Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton as their frontcourt. The Blazers, if Dame continues to not run from the grind, will likely put both their top-5 pick and their 23rd pick (formerly owned by the Knicks!) up for sale. The Jazz have a stable of young players and the 16th pick, in addition to the 28th pick. 

These teams might prefer Obi to some of those picks, despite this class depth being great. Why? Well, a proven productive and young player like Obi being available for cheap is a pretty rare market inefficiency. Most teams can’t pull Quickleys and Grimeses out of top hats like the Knicks do, so going with a big time scoring power forward like Toppin might be preferable. Doesn’t hurt that he played pretty well in the playoffs, too. I wouldn’t count this Knicks front office out of this class just yet.

4) A future asset is more helpful for a star deal

I saved the most important reason for last. The Dallas pick not conveying this year means we can use it this offseason, next season or that following off-season up to the draft, atnd make no mistake: the Knicks are still searching for stars. Jalen Brunson is now a max-contract worthy superstar PG, and Randle -- despite his foibles -- is a two-time All-Star. The Knicks’ front office is almost certainly canvassing the league to see who might shake loose that complements Brunson. They are likely considering a whole variety of options, including trading Randle or RJ Barrett. Those options probably range from saving ammo for an all-in move for a top-5 type player like Giannis Antetokounmpo, or making a move for a more peripheral star (people’s definitions here change, but think of your Zach LaVine or Jaylen Brown-type hoopers), or an impactful role player (think OG Anunoby or Tobias Harris).

Most of these moves require picks, and an extra pick on hand now means an extra pick on hand for that move. It could also be helpful for the move after that move. For example, say the Knicks were to trade Randle or RJ as part of a deal for one of those players. Using the Dallas 2024 pick means we can keep the Milwaukee 2025 pick for something else, or maybe even use two to three protected picks in lieu of an unprotected pick. 

Flexibility is the preferred currency of an NBA in flux and in parity, with the old guard still hanging on while younger MVPs scrap for footholds in their climb toward the top. Flexibility is the preferred currency of an NBA still in CBA negotiations, with an uncertain future in terms of cap regulations. Flexibility is also the preferred currency of a league where the majority of star movement occurs via trade, because flexibility is hard to find. That last point bears repeating 10 times: flexibility can pay real dividends. The Knicks were able to pivot and pounce on Brunson because of flexibility, and now he’s an absolute stud. So whether we end up with no pick, a pick in the 20s, a second-rounder, whatever – there are opportunities aplenty for this team. So stop moping!