Hawks 112, Knicks 99: A second half to forget
The Knicks got out to a 23-point lead in the first half, but familiar detrimental patterns by the head coach doomed them to a double-digit loss.
What an embarrassment.
A basketball game was played at Madison Square Garden last night. From the very first moments this game had the makings of one that could be a classic. As each team’s starters stepped under the Garden’s bright lights, uniquely colored and reflecting off the hardwood floor to create an aesthetic any basketball fan can picture with their eyes closed, legendary Knicks color commentator Walt “Clyde” Frazier described the playoff-like atmosphere in the building with an exuberant tone to match it.
If only the Knicks’ players got the memo.
After a hot start that saw the Knicks lead by as many as 23 points midway through the second quarter, the Knicks wilted like a lawn of untended plants, and were run off the court by the rival Atlanta Hawks. So what happened? And what does it mean for the Knicks going forward? Let’s dive in.
The first half
Make no mistake about it, this game wasn’t all bad. After a back and forth start that saw the two teams play to a standstill, the game turned like many Knicks games the past two seasons have turned — when Immanuel Quickley entered the game. Quickley entered the game with his team up 18-16 and when he checked out midway through the second quarter, the Knicks had extended the lead to 53-36. In between, was some of the best basketball the Knicks have played all season long.
The Knicks got contributions from almost every member of their rotation. Center Mitchell Robinson was his typically dominant self on both ends, slamming dunks home and covering up for teammates' mistakes defensively (more on that later). RJ Barrett got off to a quick start tossing a couple of dimes to teammates and hitting two threes. Jalen Brunson opened a defensive intensity fans have seen since the preseason, and Julius Randle matched it with a similarly familiar energy. Evan Fournier wore his uniform and hit a pull-up 3-pointer.
The best moments came from the bench unit. Quickley led the way, starting with his defense on the always antagonistic Trae Young. Quickley hounded him, trailing him around every screen and getting up into his body consistently without fouling. To go along with his main defense, he was everywhere on the glass, eventually recording a career-high 16 rebounds. Following his lead was bench mate and close friend Obi Toppin. Toppin played one of those stretches that makes you wonder how the Knicks can’t find more minutes for him. After just eight minutes, Toppin returned to the bench with ten points on five shot attempts, to the ovation and gratitude of a Garden thankful that, like him, probably assumed the 17-point lead he helped the team build would be secure.
A second half to forget
While the Knicks’ starters began to falter at the end of the half, they still headed into the locker room with an 8-point lead. That lead would be short lived, however, as the Hawks blitzed the Knicks to the tune of a 14-0 run right out of the gate. Once the Hawks grabbed the lead they would not relinquish it the rest of the way.
As fans of the 2021-2022 New York Knicks can (sadly) attest to, blowing large leads is hardly rare in today’s NBA. With the increasing emphasis on the 3-point shot, very few leads are safe. And with this being just game seven, it’s tough to begrudge a Knicks team that has been in every game they’ve played, the last three coming against tough competition. No, losing was not the most disturbing part of this game. Rather, it was the complete abandonment of every principle that has come to define this team early in the season. Gone was the pace and ball movement that has encouraged even the strongest of skeptical Knick fans, replaced by something far less enjoyable.
In the end, Dejounte Murray, who completely dominated this game on both ends of the court to the tune of 36 points, nine assists, four rebounds, five steals, and a block, was dancing under the bright lights as the capacity crowd filed for the exits in disappointment, the final score reading “Hawks 112, Knicks 99.”
Early analytics
You probably noticed that my recap is unusually devoid of player breakdowns or clips. To be frank, I think they would only distract from the overwhelming issue at hand: Tom Thibodeau. Thibodeau has never been a perfect coach, but the team is approaching a point of no return with his shortcomings. Let’s start with the main course. Evan Fournier has no business being the starting shooting guard on this basketball team. His guaranteed starting spot has never made sense in terms of optimizing the Knicks’ future, but last season it was at least defensible. For starters, Fournier was the Knicks’ shiny new toy. After giving him $72 million, it would have been unreasonable to expect him to come off of the bench. To go along with that, his only competition at shooting guard was Quickley, a sophomore fresh off of a surprising yet inconsistent rookie season, and rookie Quentin Grimes, who was not expected to be a part of the opening night rotation.
Fournier is no longer the Knicks’ shiny new toy. More importantly, Fournier is no longer the Knicks’ best option at that position. Even with Grimes recovering from a foot injury, Quickley has been so much better than Fournier it’s actually kind of scary. Here are just a few numbers that highlight how big the impact gap between the two has been.
The Knicks’ net rating when Immanuel Quickley plays is +8.7, and -6.9 when he sits.
The Knicks’ net rating when Evan Fournier plays is -9.2, and +11.0 when he sits.
The Knicks’ starting lineup’s net rating is -9.2.
The Knicks’ net rating when Quickley replaces Fournier with the rest of the starters is +15.4.
The Knicks’ net rating when Fournier and RJ Barrett share the court is -8.7.
The Knicks’ net rating when Quickley and Barrett share the court is 25.9.
*For those who don’t know, net rating is the amount of points you score subtracted by the amount of points you allow per 100 possessions. Yes, that means the Knicks are outscoring opponents by almost 26 points per 100 possessions when Quickley and Barrett, possibly their two most important players under the age of 24, share the court.
Some people may read this and think I am jumping the gun. It is, admittedly, a relatively small sample size. But Quickley’s ability to impact winning is not a new trend. It is something he has been doing throughout his entire career. And with Thibodeau as your head coach, it is as important as can be to get out in front of something like this. Because, due to the nature of Thibodeau’s rotation patterns, in spite of the numbers above, Fournier has played more minutes than Quickley, 89 more minutes than Quickley with the starters, and 100 more minutes with Barrett. It should be difficult to make suboptimal win-now decisions that are simultaneously abysmal for your future, but Thibodeau makes it look easy.
Which brings us back to Toppin. Toppin didn’t follow up his perfect first half with the most graceful second half shift. In fact, you could argue that a stretch in which he missed two wide open corner threes and an alley-oop dunk was the moment the game was truly decided. Is this to say Toppin cost them the game? Of course not. It is just a reminder that as much fun as he is to watch, he is hardly a perfect player.
That doesn’t matter though. He needs to play more. There is no way around it anymore, he’s simply too good. The gap between him and Julius Randle (if one exists at all) has never been smaller. If it were up to me I’d guarantee Toppin 25-plus minutes a night by allowing him and Randle to share the floor a few minutes each half. I know some people have concerns (namely: rim protection and defensive rebounding), but I am here to tell you that at a certain point you just have to play your best players the most minutes. That moment has arrived. And if it eases anyone’s mind, Hartenstein appears to be a brutally bad defensive rebounder, so giving a couple of his minutes with Randle to Toppin wouldn’t be costing the team too much on the glass.
A glimmer of hope
When studying the Knicks’ analytics, one thing especially jumped out at me: RJ Barrett is third on the team in net rating. With Thibodeau’s refusal to stagger units, oftentimes you’ll find the starters and bench players grouped together in stats like these, with ancillary differences lying in the margins for the more dedicated to seek out. But Barrett sticks out from the rest of his starting lineup buddies.
Given that we know the starting unit has both been painfully bad and played a boatload of minutes, as well as Barrett’s slow start, his number surprised me. But when you dive a bit further into the numbers, you see that Barrett excels when he plays with fellow youngins off the bench like Quickley and Toppin.
The solutions here seem quite clear. Start Quickley (or Grimes, if he is ready) and play Toppin more minutes. It is better for the team in the short and long term. But Thibodeau is as stubborn as they get. What he does over these next few weeks could very well shape the fate of this franchise’s next couple of years. Make a couple of necessary changes, and suddenly wins and losses become less important, because this season will have a direction. But if Thibodeau stays the course, then the only thing we can judge him on is wins and losses, and I’m afraid that will only lead to more nights like tonight, with 20,000 inebriated New York fans exiting the beautiful Garden. Drunk, not off of booze or joy, but disappointment.
Next up is Philadelphia on Friday night. Let’s see what Thibodeau’s got.
