How the failed Kyle Lowry trade of 2013 can inform the signing of new Knick Jalen Brunson
Almost nine years ago in 2013, the Knicks had a chance to add a point guard to their team that was deemed undersized, not good enough to lead a contender, and more… and that guy went on to be a catalyst of a title team while the Knicks were left looking for their lead guard for years. Can the Kyle Lowry swing and miss inform the current Jalen Brunson acquisition?
The Knicks opened 2022 free agency by signing Mavericks point guard Jalen Brunson to a long-term contract.
Some Knicks fans believe that New York is paying too much for Jalen Brunson, a 6-foot-1 guard who surely won't bring a title to Madison Square Garden by himself.
Some believe that Brunson represents "no-man's land," a purgatory for mediocre teams forgoing their chance to add top-level talent in the draft.
Some believe that since Brunson alone won't elevate the Knicks to a "contender," why bother?
Let's try to answer that question by looking at some recent NBA history.
First, let's attempt to make sense of Brunson's recently inked four-year, $104 million contract to play point guard for the New York Knicks with an exercise in self-reflection.
Let's take a look at another Villanova point guard, who almost joined the Knicks, but instead joined another team. He then budded into a champion and six time All-Star.
Let's rehash the Knicks' failed pursuit of Kyle Lowry before the 2013-14 trade deadline, and the spiral of events that ensued afterward.
First, we can draw a few key parallels between now and then. In terms of player profiles, Lowry and Brunson are not terribly far apart.
Undersized ball handlers with great strength and skill, wide frames, and the ability to make good decisions with the ball. Fierce, crafty guards built like NFL strong safeties. The individual player comparisons between Lowry and Brunson are difficult to ignore despite their skillsets not being identical.
With almost identical physical profiles, both players also registered a usage rate of 22% in their respective contract years.
Per 36 Minutes Comparison
Kyle Lowry 2013-14
Jalen Brunson 2021-22
Numbers bear out the similarities in their impact on the game. Though these numbers do also convey some key points the eye test confirm.
Lowry was a better overall defender and facilitator at that stage, while Brunson has the advantage as a shot creator and finisher.
Secondly, let's draw a few historical parallels between Lowry's career arc and the Knicks’ current situation. How does this help us, after all?
Story time.
After capping off of a successful 2012-13 season which saw them reach the No. 2 seed, the 2013-14 Knicks got off to a painfully slow start. They were looking for answers at the trade deadline in the wake of one of their biggest offseason miscues of all time, the Andrea Bargnani trade.
We don't need to rehash the details, it's still too painful. We can move on.
A proposed trade for the Knicks to acquire 27-year-old Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry was all but complete. Lowry is quoted afterwards as saying, "I was traded. Essentially, I was gone.”
The Knicks were reportedly unwilling to part with a package containing Ray Felton, Metta World Peace, and Iman Shumpert, Tim Hardaway Jr., or a 2018 first round pick to obtain Lowry in a trade with the Raptors. James Dolan allegedly was involved in vetoing the trade, having cold feet about dealing with Raptors GM Masai Ujiri. During Ujiri's time in Denver he helped orchestrate the blockbuster Carmelo Anthony trade of 2011, and he of course also made the Bargnani trade with the Knicks in the 2013 offseason, both moves that Dolan and the Knicks were ridiculed for to varying degrees.
The Knicks would go on to miss the playoffs by one game.
They finished 37-45, ironically — or perhaps symbolically — the same record they finished with during their uninspiring 2021-22 campaign.
The Knicks, who had lost Jason Kidd to pair with Ray Felton heading into the 2013-14 season, were forced to settle for Jose Calderon in free agency in the summer of 2014.
Since pulling out of the Lowry deal in late 2013, Dolan and the Knicks have continued to scour every corner of the Earth, hunting desperately for any semblance of an answer at the point guard position.
But that's enough Dolan talk. This is a time for hope, and excitement.
Let's get back to story time and return to the 2013-14 NBA calendar.
After the season, the Toronto Raptors would go on to extend Lowry to a four-year, $48 million extension.
This event is worth discussing for a number of reasons, especially in light of the historical framework we are operating within.
Lowry's extension can provide us with some quantifiable present-day insights that should help inform our historical comparison with Brunson.
A few bullet points about the 4/48 figure that Lowry received from Toronto in July 2014, in light of the parallels we have already drawn between the two players:
The salary cap was ~$58.6 million in 2013-14. The cap is ~$123.6 million for the 2022-23 season.
Lowry's $12 million yearly salary under 2014's $58.6 million salary cap, when adjusted for the $123.6 million cap of today's league, is a yearly salary of about $25.2 million.
If you convert Lowry's four-year, $48 million extension from 2014's salary cap to be the same percentage of the team's $123.6 million salary cap today, you would pay about four years, $101 million.
Brunson's reported four-year, $104 million contract would make him the 14th-highest paid point guard in the league in 2022 (36-year-old Miami Heat point guard Kyle Lowry is No. 13).
In 2014, Lowry's $12 million salary placed him as the 10th-highest paid point guard in the league, for comparison.
All of these facts solidify that Brunson is being paid a fair amount, commensurate with his contributions on the court.
Let's now shift focus to talk about the 2013-14 Raptors and where they were heading. There are a few eerie similarities we can draw from the Raptors' situation of old to the Knicks' world of today.
After losing Chris Bosh to the Heatles, the Raptors stunk. They amassed only 22 wins in 2010-11, followed by a 23-win season in ‘11-12.
That summer, the Raptors acquired Lowry, a young point guard with upside (and downside) from the Houston Rockets who was beginning to flash his potential as a lead guard, via trade.
Lowry had two years left on a cheap contract making roughly $5.8 million, and many around the league viewed him as an afterthought in the league's point guard hierarchy starring heavy hitters like Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Chris Paul.
The perception was he would have to battle for a starting role in Toronto. A far cry from the six-time All-Star we know him as today.
DeMar DeRozan, a highly-touted wing in his fourth season, had shown some skill but was still years away from approaching what we would deem a "championship piece.”
Much like RJ Barrett, DeRozan had put up decent numbers, but always on poor efficiency and never on a winning team. The physical tools and on-court skills were undeniable.
Around the league, however, teams wondered if these RJ and DeRozan-level players could parlay their elite traits into starring roles on contending teams.
Rudy Gay, a veteran forward acquired in the peak of the Raptors' futility amidst five consecutive losing seasons in January of 2013, also factored in. Gay assumed a lead role in Toronto's offense as the de facto shot taker.
This was problematic for Toronto, as Gay's shot diet as an inefficient midrange player was not conducive to winning basketball games.
He shot 42.5% from the field on 17 attempts (33.6% from 3-point range on four attempts per game) to finish the year in ‘12-13.
The Raptors would go on to finish 34-48 in ‘12-13, with Lowry playing in 68 games after working through an injury, starting in 52 after winning over his coach’s trust.
To start 2013-14, things went from bad to worse.
In early December 2013, the Raptors were off to a slow start at 6-12.
Gay ran the course into certified “chucker” territory: he shot a staggering 38.8% from the field on 19 shot attempts (37% from three on three attempts) in these 18 games leading into trade season.
The Raptors decided to change course.
In an addition by subtraction move (Julius Randle, anyone?), the Raptors offloaded Gay to Sacremento for a platter of bench players, including sharpshooting forward Patrick Patterson, back up point guard Greivis Vasquez, and veterans Chuck Hayes and John Salmons.
Gay was clearly the most talented player in this trade, but the trade allowed the Raptors to restructure their team in a way that just made more sense. (Obi Toppin, anyone?) Fortifying their bench would free up space for young players already on the roster like Lowry and DeRozan, as well as young swingman Terrance Ross.
Ross would be a downgrade, but the team would benefit in the long run.
In the following weeks, the trade talks with New York around Lowry would escalate, leading many to believe Toronto would lean into a "tank" after trading away their young point guard.
This moment was a crucial fork in the road in Toronto's journey from a 23-win team in 2012, to NBA champions in 2019.
Tear the whole thing down, or trudge forward piece by piece?
Sound familiar?
By Jan. 1, 2014, the Raptors were back to .500, and trade talks on Lowry had died.
With Lowry signed long-term, Toronto continued to build continuity. The Raptors finished 48-34 and made the playoffs as the No. 3 seed, ending a six-year drought.
The Knicks and Raptors in ‘13-14 were now speeding headlong in opposite directions.
The Knicks in this timeline would flounder, missing the playoffs in eight consecutive seasons. Rudderless, they lacked continuity from the top down.
The Raptors, on the other hand, would ascend. In making the playoffs the next seven years in a row, Toronto established their identity as a sustainable winner, eventually capturing an NBA title.
Lowry's steady hand and on-court leadership granted the Raptors stability and an on-court identity that served as a foundational pillar of their success.
No one thought of him as a championship point guard, a true floor general, when he signed his 4/48 deal with Toronto. No one sees Jalen Brunson as that, either, perhaps rightfully so.
Toronto's choice to hold onto Lowry and take the competitive path over the tanking route was a decision that can inform us of the organizational philosophy that led the Raptors to a decade of sustained winning.
It took the right mix of players and personalities, continuity, a ton of luck, two great coaches, and a lot of hard lessons to reach the goal of winning a championship.
Let's hope Dolan was taking notes.
Can Brunson help galvanize New York's squad, and echo shades of Lowry's journey with the Raptors?
Can he exorcise hallowed MSG's ghost of point guards past?
Can he provide the Knicks organization with steady leadership that they have so sorely lacked this century?
Can the Knicks’ front office continue to cultivate winning?
Time will tell, but the blueprint has been laid out.
