How the Knicks can maximize Julius Randle from deep
A little more attention to where and when New York’s star forward takes his 3-pointers could result in a lot more makes
I’m haunted by the level of detail in No Country for Old Men. I just re-watched it for the first time in years, and it did what all great films do: cuddled up in my psyche and hibernated there for a few days. There’s just no stone unturned for 122 straight minutes.
The lack of music is a significant detail. Only 16 total minutes total, much of that coming in the closing credits. Instead of a traditional score, ordinary sounds like wind whipping across the desert or a briefcase sliding against an air duct reverberate like a fog horn on the open ocean. Tiny details also fill out the picture — that little stare between Chigurh and the Desert Aire manager, or the scuff marks from boots on tile floors. Everything combines into a mood that is stark and tense and isolating.
I did something else recently that might leave a large segment of Knicks fans as stunned as if Chigurh had threatened them with his captive bolt stunner: I watched all of Julius Randle’s 3-point attempts from the 2023-2024 season. All 244 of them. Multiple times each.
Randle shot 31.1% from deep on 5.3 attempts per game. It was not the worst long-range shooting season of his career; however, it was below his career and Knicks averages. But basketball is 94 feet of major decisions and micro-moves, as densely packed as a Coen Brothers movie. When you break down these details, you find that some elements of his long-range shooting significantly weigh down his averages, while others are underutilized.
So let’s dive into all the details, big and little, and how the Knicks can maximize Randle’s long-range shooting.
The big picture
If you asked the casual NBA fan to evaluate Randle as a 3-point shooter, odds are most would probably argue he’s below-average, even compared to other players at his position. They’re also probably not wrong.
Randle’s 31.1% mark would have ranked 158th (tied with Kelly Oubre) had he played enough games to qualify for the official leaderboard. Only Jordan Clarkson, Nikola Vucević and Franz Wagner would have been below him. Those are rough numbers, especially for a player who takes a decent percentage (14.3%) of his team’s threes per game. That data also doesn’t paint the complete picture.
For starters, evaluating last year’s Knicks requires pre- and post-OG Anunoby markers. Before the Toronto trade, Randle was 45-of-160 from deep (28.1%), which would have tied for dead last. After Anunoby arrived, Randle shot 31-of-84 (36.9%); had he shot that over the season, he would have been 98th, the same ballpark as Chet Holmgren, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell and Austin Reaves. That’s more the kind of company that would get you to hang by the motel pool and have a beer.
So much has been written about Anunoby’s different impacts on the Knicks, but not enough on the transformative impact it had on Randle’s 3-point shooting. Even though it was a small sample size, the better spacing in the lineup should be a nugget that excites Knicks fans. Another big-picture detail to consider is where Randle’s attempts came from.
There isn’t a more succinct way to summarize Randle’s long-distance shooting last season: from everywhere above the break, where the bulk of his attempts came, he was significantly below average. Conversely, Randle was elite shooting from the corners, especially the right corner. If the Knicks want to maximize his 3-point efficiency, they have to find him more corner attempts without purely having him hide there like he’s on the run with the cartel’s money. With Anunoby and Mikal Bridges both able to create some on offense, when one of them is attacking the rim, it would make the most sense to have Randle spend more time in the corners.
The microscopic view
Now let’s take aim at Randle’s 3-point shooting like Llewelyn Moss hunting pronghorn through the scope of his rifle. At that distance, every little twitch, every hairpin movement, makes a huge difference in your aim. And now you honestly don’t know if I’m talking about game hunting or Randle’s shooting. Lines are blurred.
Do you know a Knicks fan who often says something like, “I hate watching Randle dribble around and then jab-step five times before taking a stepback jumper?” Well, I’ve got some good news and some bad news for you.
The good news is Randle’s reputation for falling in love with dribbling or twinkle toes, at least when it came to 3-point shooting last year, is way overblown. Most of his shots last year came with less dribble or move hesitation. By a wiiiiiide margin. The bad news is that annoying Knicks fan you know is right. It’s not just their gut. The data backs them up. Last year, the more Randle played with his food, the less likely he was to make the shot. His conversion rate plummets after 2+ dribbles or moves.
My zoomed-in view of Randle’s shooting isn’t all doom and gloom. I uncovered some situations where he’s an absolute beast from downtown. While none of the following situations account for a hefty shot volume, they show promising ways to increase Randle’s efficiency. Let’s look at BLOBs/SLOBs first (baseline out-of-bounds/sideline out-of-bounds). Last year, Randle had seven opportunities where a BLOB/SLOB play resulted in him getting a 3-point opportunity, like this one against Phoenix.
Randle runs Eric Gordon perfectly into the screen set by Mitchell Robinson and flares to the corner for a zero-dribble, zero-hesitation three. For the season, Randle made 5-of-7 3-pointers on shots drawn-up for BLOBs and SLOBs. In general he shot really well from three when he was part of the screen game, both as a screener who popped or when screens were set for him. There were only 10 such opportunities last season, but he converted on six. Here’s one example the Knicks drew up with some (relative) frequency.
Jalen Brunson dribbles around two high ball-screens out of the horns set. In this case, the 5-man, Precious Achiuwa, is the first screener and rolls to the basket. Randle sets the second screen and pops. Randle was effective in this play type because he got his shot off in space without hesitation. More importantly, Randle is also more effective in areas of the court that are usually a struggle for him. It would be interesting to see the Knicks call this set more frequently this coming season, with Randle as the second screen alongside another big or even as the roller alongside Anunoby or Bridges.
The final situation I want to discuss is transition. Last year, Randle was 13-of-26 (50%) on transition threes.
Much like the other play types we’ve seen drawn up for him, transition threes resulted in a higher shooting percentage in areas of the floor where he struggled last year. He also converted at a higher rate on transition threes because he didn’t hesitate or fall in love with dribble moves.
Tom Thibodeau’s coaching staff can have another long-range weapon at their disposal if they put Randle in more of these situations that resulted in effective 3-point shooting last year. That would have a positive cascading effect on the entire offense. If the Knicks can pull it off, then just like a small-town Texas convenience store clerk they’ll “stand to win everything.”
