Obi Toppin’s sophomore season is off to an amazing start, with the forward dominating on the inside. How has his usage in his second year catapulted him from below average to one of the best per-minute players in the NBA this season?

In his sophomore season, Obi Toppin is most definitely poppin’, but he’s poppin’ because he’s no longer popping, and he’s rollin’ because he’s rolling.

Allow me to explain.

Two of the most baffling statistics connected to the 2020-2021 Knicks (right next to Elfrid Payton, Games Started) were related to the utilization of New York’s eighth overall pick.

First, Toppin acted as the screener on just 9% of his team’s possessions, according to NBA.com, despite the fact that his draft value stemmed primarily from his upside as a screen-and-roll dive man in a modern, spaced NBA offense. In stark and puzzling contrast, Taj Gibson — who Obi could probably hurdle if both jumped at the same time — screened on a whopping 29% of Knick possessions, making him one of the top 20 most frequent pick-setters in the entire NBA.

The following play demonstrates an essential shift that has taken place this season:

Gibson begins his ascent to the top of the key into screening position, which was the natural order of things a season ago. But Rose shockingly waves him off, before summoning Obi over to serve as his screener. That small moment is representative of the meaningful, if not drastic increase that has taken place — Obi is now screening on 15% of New York’s possessions.

Second, even when Obi did set a screen last season, he rolled to the rim after just 19% of them, and popped to the perimeter (despite being a below-average shooter) after 81% of his picks, as tracked by Bball Index. In other words, the Knicks drafted the prospect compared to Amar’e Stoudemire and turned him into Kristaps Porzingis, if Porzingis couldn’t really shoot. Consequently, Knicks fans watched Obi for the majority of the year drift listlessly around the arc, unsure of where he should be, what he should be doing, and, probably, why the hell this team drafted him. 

The only explanation for the seemingly inexplicable, and the one I posited during the season, was that all three of New York’s centers — Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel, and Taj Gibson — were non-shooting threats, and therefore, the only way to actually engage their defenders was to utilize them as screeners on the ball. That approach left Obi in the passive bystander role. Considering Tom Thibodeau’s maniacal obsession with rim protection, rookie Obi was never going to play any center, and so his marginalization in the offense became a fact of Thibs’ life.  

Here we are in Year 2 of the Obi Toppin experiment. He still isn’t playing much center (81% of his time has been spent at power forward, per Cleaning the Glass, and much of his time at center has been in response to injuries to New York’s middlemen), he still almost exclusively shares the floor with the very same non-shooting bigs, and yet, Toppin is now popping on only 29% of his screens, and rolling or slipping toward the rim 71% of the time — a drastic shift. A total reversal, even. 

The result is that Obi is finally living in the paint, where he belongs, and he’s absolutely thriving in his natural habitat. Per CtG, Toppin is now taking 67% of his shots at the rim, compared to just 45% a season ago, and is converting those shots at the rim at an elite 76% clip, a 10% increase from last year. Furthermore, he is drawing shooting fouls on a solid 16% of his field goal attempts, up from a pathetic 6% in his rookie season. In summary, finally allowing Obi to roll to the basket has transformed him from a below average NBA player into a really good one. 

But considering the team’s identical front court personnel, the same exact spacing questions from last season should remain. How has the coaching staff addressed the elephants in the room — where are they stationing those three heavy behemoths clogging up the watering hole, standing in Obi’s way? 

They have employed the following three solutions:

Solution 1: The dunker spot (i.e. on the baseline, just outside the paint)

As it turns out, Obi is so explosive, so springy, that more often than not, he can overcome the spacing obstacles by leaping faster than the secondary help can react, even when they are just steps away.

This strategy has worked for the most part, but problems do arise when the weakside helper can match Toppin’s explosiveness, and placing the center just steps away makes for a quick and easy rotation.

(This foul call was overturned, and completely swung the game in the Bucks’ favor.)

Solution 2: The corner, behind the arc

The NBA’s defensive three seconds rule disallows a defender from parking themselves in the lane if the player he is guarding is well outside of it. Accordingly, despite the fact that no opponent would care to contest a corner three by any of the Knicks’ centers, the rule does not discriminate based on 3-point percentage, and New York has taken advantage of that.

The difference between a Giannis block and a wide open lane to the rim — i.e., the difference between this clip and the last one — is where Taj is situated. By spreading to the corner, that rotation to Obi’s roll is far less obvious, and far more difficult, for the Finals MVP to execute.

Now, if Antetokounmpo was truly locked in — if this were a playoff series, for instance — he may well have cheated toward the lane and ignored Gibson, like Miles Bridges did on this magnificent block on a Toppin roll.

Nonetheless, the corner presents another viable, if not perfect option to provide an elite rim-runner with his lane to the cup.

Solution 3: Stagger/double drag screen (two screens in a row on the ball)

During his rookie season, a stagger screen by Obi and whichever center he was playing with automatically transitioned into an Obi pop, and a center roll. From the very first game of his sophomore campaign, it was clear that this was no longer going to be the case. 

The beauty of having the center screen in tandem with Obi prior to an Obi roll is that the opposing rim protector has to vacate the paint in order to come up to the level of the screen — especially with New York’s abundance of excellent pull-up shooters — which leaves smaller guards or wings in secondary help to try and contend with Obi’s unique combination of size and hops (poor Payton Pritchard in that case). 

This strategy has been effective even when both Obi and the center roll at the same time — a strange sight to behold to be sure, but it almost functions like sending two receivers to occupy the same safety. It’s really hard to cover both!

While it might be slightly infuriating that it took a full season to put a lottery pick in advantageous positions that play to his strengths, Thibs deserves credit for demonstrating some creativity in solving the spacing conundrum that was grounding the high-flying Toppin. Beyond rolling, the reigning Coach of the Year has also drawn up some beautiful plays out of time-outs to take advantage of Obi’s vertical spacing:

(Not only did he draw this one up, he sold it from the sideline by pointing to Obi’s down screen for Burks as if that’s what was actually coming, before Obi slipped it for the lob.)

Notice that the script for both of these plays directs Taj Gibson to decoy-screen at the top of the key, drawing the opposing rim protector out with him, rendering him powerless to Obi’s surprise attack on the rim behind him. Tactical precision + flawless execution = the unleashing of Obi Toppin.

A final positive impact of having Toppin roll to the rim: By increasing his proximity to the basket through more frequent rolls, Obi finds himself in far superior position to hit the offensive glass.  

Considering his size, quick jump ability, and great hands, offensive rebounding should become an important weapon in his arsenal. Unsurprisingly, Toppin has almost doubled his offensive rebounding percentage from last season — from a measly 3.7% to a far more respectable 7%, per Cleaning the Glass.

Ultimately, a maximized Obi Toppin will be spending at least some time at the center position, or, at the very least, with a stretch five that leaves the lane unoccupied. That has always been his NBA destiny.  

I mean, look how much space he has to roll when the Knicks went to the Randle/Toppin front court in the recent matchup against the Lakers. 

Nonetheless, the reality in Knicks land is that the path to consistent deployment of that formation remains very murky. In the meantime, through smart strategy and execution, the Knicks have done a commendable job empowering their lottery pick, getting his career on track by finding ways to get him to the rim. Finally, Obi is blossoming in the Garden.