Inside the shot that has defined Julius Randle’s All-Star season
The midrange shot is generally derided in the modern NBA, but Julius Randle has built an All-Star campaign on the back of that very shot, placing himself in the company of some of the best midrange assassins in the game while buoying the Knicks’ offense. Benjy Ritholtz breaks down the nuts and bolts of Julius’ midrange come-up.
Any analyst or fan would be hard-pressed to recall a more extreme turnaround for a player from one year to the next than Julius Randle’s transformation from last season to this season — from helpless spin cycle of misery to now officially named an All-Star. We spent most of last season watching Randle sulkily spin his way into turnovers, force shots over double-teams, and regularly ignore his younger teammates. This season, Julius exudes confidence, displays leadership, and plays unselfishly and efficiently.
The redemption of Randle is generally explained through some combination of improved decision-making and improved shooting. But, in reality, that narrative does not capture the actual, fundamental shift in Randle’s game. Both the numbers and the film tell a different, more improbable story. Yes, Randle is absolutely passing the ball more willingly and decisively. And yes, Randle has improved his 3-point efficiency this season without substantially increasing his volume from behind the arc, and that certainly plays an important part in his overall improvement. But perhaps the primary reason Julius Randle is now an NBA All-Star is because he has become an absolute midrange assassin.
That’s right, in a certain sense, Randle is actually taking worse shots than he did a year ago — i.e. many more midrange shots and many less shots at the rim. According to Cleaning the Glass, Randle took 48% of his shots at the rim last year, about average frequency for his position. This year, he’s taking just 29% of his shots at the rim, a startlingly low number that ranks in just the 17th percentile for his position (alongside players more classically known as stretch-bigs, like Kristaps Porzingis, PJ Tucker, and Brook Lopez). In contrast, Randle’s long mid-range attempts (defined as non-3-point shots outside of 14 feet) have risen from just 11% last year to a whopping 20% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile for his position. In almost any other scenario, this particular reallocation of shot distribution would negatively impact efficiency. After all, long mid-range attempts are known to be the least efficient shot in basketball, and many players — and even teams — have eliminated them from their games entirely. So why has it worked for Mr. Randle?
For one, despite the general perception of him around the league and the scouting report on him coming into it, Randle has never been particularly efficient at the rim. This year, he is shooting just 56% there, in just the 20th percentile of NBA bigs. In fact, he was actually slightly better finishing deep in the paint last year than he has been this year. Randle has opted out of many of those fairly inefficient paint shots this year, and replaced them with foul-line extended jumpers, where — and this is the key — he has absolutely cooked, shooting a ridiculous 51% on those shots. This ranks in the 86th percentile for his position. But when you filter out those who shoot them at very low volume, he’s even better than that — the only bigs who have put up at least 70 shots from that distance this season and shot a better percentage than Sir Julius: MVP candidates Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, and midrange Hall-of-Famer LaMarcus Aldridge. Hell, Randle is shooting a percentage point higher from that distance than the point god Chris Paul himself, who has lorded over that territory for the better part of two decades.
But what makes Randle’s midrange game so effective? Let’s take a look at the film.
The main driver that has elevated Randle’s middy game is his vastly improved, advanced, and balanced footwork. It starts with the simple jab step. Defenders are weary of Randle’s first step going left and his strength going to the rim. Julius leverages that fear by jabbing hard with his left foot. If the defender backs up at all to try and cut off the drive, Randle has become extremely proficient at simply rising up and knocking it down. As a certain Knick legend and current ESPN analyst likes to say: Hand down, man down.
In the Knicks’ recent game against Orlando, Randle even workshopped a sweet bank shot off of his jab-step, a higher arcing version of the Tim Duncan special.
If Randle’s jab elicits even the slightest lean to the left from the defender, Randle immediately explodes to his right — his preferred shooting direction — with a dribble, and rises into a balanced and picturesque jumper.
But even when the jab itself doesn’t create any separation, or he is working off of a live dribble, Randle is able to utilize his sheer strength to create separation. Watch how Randle uses his left shoulder when going to his right to spring directly into a step-back jumper. He routinely makes these shots regardless of the angle, and despite their high degree of difficulty.
With this same move, Randle has also become extremely adept at swinging his arms through and drawing fouls when he sees his defender reaching, and has been rewarded with a fair share of and-ones like this one:
This move is particularly useful against some of the most sturdy, intelligent defenders in the NBA (like PJ Tucker, Giannis, and Bam Adebayo) who otherwise refuse to yield any space, or to bail New York out of doomed possessions as the clock dwindles down.
In response, some particularly heady defenders have started to take away Randle’s left shoulder by stationing themselves directly on it, daring Randle to turn back over his right shoulder or risk plowing them over for an offensive foul. Randle has just begun to unveil the counter fadeaway over his right shoulder, a move (the mirror image for righties) generally reserved for just the premier midrange artists in the game. Yep — these are downright Kobe- or Melo-esque, though you can see Randle’s balance isn’t quite as stable when he goes to this move.
Randle’s midrange game has been a true revelation this season, but nobody could argue in good faith that this is Randle’s ideal shot distribution, and some regression to the mean may be coming on these difficult jumpers. His current shot chart is the child of necessity; the result of the Knicks’ unhealthy offensive ecosystem. Undoubtedly, one of the reasons Randle has struggled so mightily in the paint in the last couple of years is because of the Knicks’ poor spacing, the consequence of their dearth of quality shooters.
That said, the ability to create and make difficult shots in the midrange space, along with his improved 3-ball, has raised Randle’s ceiling considerably, and has presumably changed the organization’s outlook on his star potential. As the Knicks consider whether and how to build around Julius Randle, his newfound midrange game will and should undoubtedly factor substantially into those complicated decisions. In the meantime, enjoy the unexpected ascent of the midrange assassin, Julius Randle, newly-minted NBA All-Star.
