Introducing the PERRIN System, the Knicks’ NBA Draft strategy
It’s pretty clear the Knicks have a “type” when they take players in the NBA Draft. But what do they value? Enter: the extremely scientific PERRIN System.
We are now in Year 3 of the Leon Rose era, and more importantly for me, of the WALT PERRIN era! That means three years of picks — seven picks, to be exact — and three years of rumored targets. What lessons can we take from how Perrin’s Knicks have drafted? Does he have “a type?” Does the evidence support that or is it more of a vibes thing? Who might hold the requisite mix of traits, backgrounds, skills, and vibes from the 2023 class to catch Perrin’s eye? WILL THE KNICKS EVEN MAKE A PICK THIS YEAR?
That’s a rhetorical question. I’m operating as if the answer is yes. Will I be pick-less and hurt for two years in a row? Possibly. Oh well. Let’s get into it.
Let’s first do a quick overview of the players the Walt Perrin and Leon Rose front office has picked. Below is a brief review on what was a general-ish consensus on those prospects among the draftniks of the world, both mainstream and otherwise.
Part I: Knicks picks under Walt Perrin
Obi Toppin:
Eighth pick, 22-year-old sophomore, big forward/center from Dayton, National Player of the Year, offensive powerhouse and versatile scorer, advanced stats god, incredible athlete, high motor, shaky and perhaps unredeemable defense, maybe a shooter maybe not, hometown kid, hard worker.
Immanuel Quickley:
Twenty-fifth pick, 21-year-old sophomore combo guard from Kentucky, SEC Player of the Year, gawd-like shooting numbers, solid advanced stats, high motor on both ends, very good feel for the game, long arms, awesome floater, unassailable work ethic.
Quentin Grimes:
Twenty-fifth pick, 21-year-old former 5-star point guard and Kansas recruit turned gritty Houston transfer and shooting guard, high motor on both ends, explosive athlete, a chuck who took a zillion threes and made lots of them in his draft year, elite advanced stats in his draft year.
Rokas Jokubaitis:
Thirty-fourth pick, 20-year-old combo guard stash playing in Spain, downhill lefty speed demon with great midrange shooting and a reliable three, shaky on defense, great feel on offense, high-motor happy warrior.
Miles “Deuce” McBride:
Thirty-sixth pick, 20-year-old sophomore point guard from West Virginia, extremely gifted defender with long arms and a football player’s physique, midrange machine, good shooter, solid feel for the game, great advanced stats (especially on defense).
Jericho Sims:
Fifty-eighth pick from Texas, 22.5-year-old senior center, elite physical specimen, undersized for a center, solid advanced stats especially on defense, dunk machine.
Trevor Keels:
Pick 42 in 2022, a young two-way shot-making combo guard who defends. Keels was probably drafted for salary rather than for anything else.
Part II: Additional likely Knicks targets under Walt Perrin
Now, in addition to the actual picks, there were also a number of players the Knicks were reportedly interested in, sometimes to the point of making actual trade offers for higher picks (with varying levels of success). Separating between smokescreen and genuine interest is a little bit of a tricky exercise, because it relies on rumors and reports and hearsay. Nonetheless, here is my list of alleged targets, each of whom yielded some reporting saying the Knicks tried to acquire them. It also includes a few who they passed on despite reporting saying they were under strong consideration.
Tyrese Maxey: An 18-year-old turbocharged freshman guard from Kentucky, with an insane motor, long arms, and three-level scoring (albeit theoretical from three). Defensive potential. Good-not-great advanced metrics.
Kira Lewis: Another young speedster, 19 years old, with a less size and more shooting, who was a sophomore breakout prospect. Defensive potential, though frame and size would make that tough to actualize. Good-not-great advanced stats.
Trey Murphy III: A 21-year-old big wing sniper with big time hops from Virginia with unimpeachable shooting numbers and long arms. Big time defender. Elite advanced stats for his draft year.
Chris Duarte: A 24-year-old Oregon redshirt senior guard. Shot creator and shooter, with pro-level skills and habits on both ends. Elite advanced stats for his draft year.
Tre Mann: A 20-year-old ankle-breaking, pull-up shooting gawd playing at Florida with part-time point guard duties. Shaky defender, but with some potential on that end. Pretty great advanced stats in his draft year.
Jalen Williams: A 21 year old Santa Clara point-wing with an incredible well rounded game, ready for the NBA both physically and skill-wise. Pretty great advanced stats in his draft year, though not elite.
Devin Vassell: A 20-year-old Florida State shooting guard with a high defensive motor and tremendous defensive feel off-ball, a sweet stroke from three and midrange. Turned himself into a blue chip prospect through work. Advanced stat god.
Jaden Ivey: A 20-year-old golden goose egg prize of an explosive combo guard who electrified the nation playing for a good Purdue team. One of the faces of the NCAA in his draft year.
Finally, I won't list them all, but it is also worth considering the players this front office has acquired through trade and free agency when evaluating favored archetypes. Just something else to consider.
Part III: The recipe
I don’t know about you, but a couple of traits clearly leap off the page to me when looking at these names in sections I and II. Shooting, age (or maybe it’s track record?), being at a big program, being productive collegiate players (as opposed to more theoretical) with advanced metrics to match, and being an explosive college scorer. Not all of the guys check all of the boxes, but it is striking how often those traits shine through in this bunch. Accordingly, I have developed a HIGHLY COMPLICATED ALGORITHMIC MODEL designed to evaluate 2023 players using this information. Behold, the P.E.R.R.I.N. system:
Pull-up shooting guru
Excites Worldwide Wes
Radically good advanced stats
Really a DAWG
Immediate impact
Not a youngin
Some of these are obvious. For example, most of the players above shot the cover off of the ball before coming into the NBA, with a few exceptions. Very few of them were limited to just spot-up shooting, too. Many were capable pull-up shooters.
Being an immediate impact player, given the Knicks have not intentionally and truly tanked under Leon Rose, is another clear-cut requirement — even if they don’t actually play as rookies, the ability to contribute now if called upon without being a complete tire fire on one end or both ends seems pretty critical.
Another example is the advanced stats test — most of these players had OUTSTANDING impact metrics, particularly Box Plus Minus. Only one had a Box Plus Minus (Basketball Reference BPM, that is — each site has its own formula) below five, Tyrese Maxey. Most of the players on this list clocked in a BPM of seven or higher and a few even higher still, the mark of extremely productive, high-impact players. Usually, lower BPM guys are more tools and theory than actual production — those guys can definitely work out as pros, but there is arguably more risk involved. Most great pros were great collegiate players. Given how extremely analytically-friendly this front office is (looking at year-to-year offensive changes, the Knicks’ OREB/floater/isolation/low turnover-based grifter top-10 offense, etc.), this being a factor shouldn’t be a surprise.
Others PERRIN factors more nebulous. More art than science. We know the Knicks love dawgs. We know Thibs loves dawgs. We know a dawg when we see one, even if it is hard to define. What even is a dawg? Maybe someone who hustles, who busts ass on defense or on the glass, or who is physical. You tell me!
We also know the Worldwide Wes factor is ever-present. For those who do not know, William “Worldwide Wes” Wesley was the loudest voice in the room pushing for Immanuel Quickley to be the Knicks’ target in 2020, doing so in a reportedly demonstrative and enthusiastic fashion. The Wes factor is a mix of being connected to a player via a big school, a big name coach, or some other backroom connection. Could be a player’s parents, the city they call home, a rapper who is a mutual acquaintance, who the hell knows.
Part IV: Ranking the 2023 class using the PERRIN System
So, let’s get to the main event: who is a PERRIN in the 2023 class?
If we rank possible 2023 picks using this system, giving a player -1, 0, or 1 point for each category, we can see how they grade out and maybe have a small keyhole’s worth of insight into the Knicks’ front office. Zero points is a neutral type score, 1 is an affirmative.
Some examples of how I score prospects:
Jett Howard has a BPM of 5, so he gets a 0 for Advanced Stats – it’s good, not amazing;
Taylor Hendricks gets a 0 in older/younger/track record because he isn’t a YOUNG freshman, but he is a freshman and we know the Knicks prefer some level of track record for rooks. Essentially, if a player would be 20 years old by Game 1, they get a 0. Older rooks get a 1, and younger than 20 get a -1.
Max Lewis and Colby Jones get 0 for immediate impact. Max might be a good shooter but his defense will negate that on some level on Day 1. His shooting isn’t quite nuclear enough to buy him a bunch of minutes on Day 1. And Colby might be solid all around, but he isn’t going to bring any Day 1 game-changing skills as a part of a bench unit, a la Immanuel Quickley’s rookie shooting prowess.
Most of this is very subjective — what IS a dawg? For example, Brice Sensabaugh on offense is clearly a dawg — physical, doesn’t back down, tough shot maker. On defense, however, he can be apathetic, so I initially had him as a 0 for DAWG factor. But out of curiosity, I took to Twitter to see what folks thought, and lo and behold: overwhelming consensus that he is, in fact, a dawg. I’d personally give him a 0, not a 1, but I went with the crowd sourcing for this one.
You can think of it a bit as 1 being green light, 0 being yellow light, -1 being red light.
The scores
*I put N/A for Lively in the pull-up category because I think for true centers that skill is irrelevant, judging from the history of Walt Perrin centers (Enes Kanter, Rudy Gobert, Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel, Jericho Sims, Isaiah Hartenstein).
What does it mean?
Gold medal PERRINs: According to this extremely scientific system, the most “Perrin-like” picks on the table for our Knicks are national champion Jordan Hawkins and NCAA superstar guard Marcus Sasser. They are followed by Cason Wallace, Kobe Bufkin, and Brandin Podziemski.
For JHawk, this checks out when you watch him — he may be the best shooter in the class, he is a sophomore, is physical despite being a slim guard, gutsy on defense, and plays at a big name college after playing for a big name powerhouse high school. Similarly, Sasser has proven his game on the big stage for a competitive program. As a senior he was the best player on one of the best teams, has elite advanced metrics for two years straight, has an extremely potent pull-up jump shot and scoring arsenal, and is an absolute dawg who plays bigger than his size (6-foot-1 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan).
Bufkin is a late-rising combo guard who ended the season quite impressively. Finally, Cason is pretty much the luxury-brand prospect version of Deuce McBride. In fact, all three have many similarities to IQ, Grimes, and Deuce as gritty, physical, two-way guards who are confident pull-up shooters. Podziemski appears on this list as a smaller-school sleeper, who is a gutsy rebounding, do-it-all guard with decent size who shoots tremendously well — traits many of these players share.
Given this list, the question is: do the Knicks have room for another rotation guard? It’s a million-dollar question, one only Leon and Thibs can answer. After all, since drafting Grimes, we’ve seen the Knicks dip their toes in wing-y waters by acquiring Cam Reddish and Josh Hart while shortening up their guard rotation and excluding D-Rose and Evan Fournier. We don’t want another prospect wasting away and destined for 10 minutes a game through their rookie deal.
Silver medal PERRINs: Following those three, we have a group of prospects which include Brice Sensabaugh, Julian Strawther, Gradey Dick, and Taylor Hendricks. Notably, all of these players are wings (or in Hendricks’ case, a mobile big or power forward, depending who you ask). We also have super senior Kobe Brown.
Brice, Gradey, and Tay seem a bit surprising because they are all freshmen. Despite reported interest in some freshman players, the Knicks have yet to take a frosh in the first round since RJ Barrett, who was picked before Leon Rose and Walt Perrin came aboard (though there was alleged interest in Tyrese Maxey).
However, if we assume – admittedly a large assumption – that the reason for that is a preference for players who can have impact more quickly in their first contract, I think it is safe to say that most of this group can achieve that despite their youthfulness, if put in the proper role. None are particularly young freshmen, with several on pace to turn 21 early in their career. Strawther and Sensabaugh would have the biggest learning curves on defense and would certainly test the theory that Knicks picks must be able to swim (as opposed to sink) on defense as a rookie. What the Knicks think of that will determine whether they consider those players draftable.
Kris Murray not being among the top group is also a bit of a surprise, as he seems to be a poster child for plug-and-play wings, not unlike his big brother Keegan. However, where Keegan’s shooting ascended from fine to nuclear in the end of his college career, Kris’ shooting has wavered. He still takes a lot of threes, but he misses quite a lot. On top of missing catch-and-shoot threes, he doesn’t take pull-up jumpers, and the few he takes he mostly misses; so I gave him a -1. His overall impact has still been great, of course, and it’s possible given the need for size in the Knicks’ depth that his height gives him “bonus points” over some of the other players here who tallied up three or four points, as he can fill that taller small forward/credible mobile power forward role which the Knicks lack.
Julian Strawther, who is not considered quite as big a wing as Kris despite being essentially the same size and length, may also benefit in the eyes of the FO from being a bit taller. I would also be remiss if I did not mention that he is one of the players I scored positively as a dawg who public opinion is actually split on, as we can see in this scientifically valid Twitter poll below. If he had a 0 instead of a 1, he would not stand out quite as much with a lower score of just three.
Finally, Kobe Brown is more like the player people seem to think Kris Murray is. By that, I mean a much-older-than-his-peers big wing with a huge strength and length advantage over college peers, a splashy jump shot off the catch and the mentality and feel to be a solid role player from Day 1.
So what’s next?
The Knicks are far from the first front office to have ‘’a type’’ when it comes to the NBA Draft. What makes modeling that for this year difficult is that this year brings very different circumstances from the last two. The Knicks are good, with less minutes to spare than ever before despite bringing in no rookies last year, particularly among the crowded crop of players 6-foot-5 and shorter. On the flip side, some players may be closer to the end of their Knicks tenure.
Personally, I cannot wait to see how they approach this class. They currently do not have a pick, of course. Historically, they don’t pick projects. But having a cheap salary on the books in 2025 or 2026, when they likely will be at their most competitive, is very important. So if one of the contribute-now, high-PERRIN-scoring prospects is available, I do expect them to trade into the first or early second. Finally, there is the (low, if you ask me) probability that they see this draft and their crowded roster as a chance to make a major strategic pivot and take an 18-year-old who won’t see the court much in the short term, but could mean quite a lot to a Knicks team in two to three years.
My guess? There are 10 players I have identified as ranking highly on this scale. If one of them is available, or someone who is ‘’supposed’’ to go close to 10 drops for some reason, I think they will spring for one of those late firsts to acquire said player. However, if one of those players is NOT available, I suspect they will bypass this draft rather than choose a player who doesn’t match their established, proven set of traits.
Finally, for posterity, here are those 11 players ranked not by ‘’how much of a PERRIN’’ they are, but by who I think are actually the best prospects. Put differently, here is a list of the PERRINs, from best to worst for the Knicks, according to Prez. And to be clear, I would be happy if ANY of them ended up Knicks — this list is simply my preference order.
Tier 1: Prez is ecstatic
Hendricks
Sensabaugh
Dick
Hawkins
Tier 2: Prez is very pleased
Podziemski
Strawther
Brown
Bufkin
Wallace
Sasser
