Is standing pat really an option for the Knicks this offseason?
The Knicks defied expectations this past season, making the second round of the playoffs and proving that their timeline is perhaps further along than we thought. But improvement isn’t always linear… do the Knicks need to act now to improve the team?
Before I dive into my thesis, I’d like to first share a couple of Knicks-related sentiments which I firmly believe to be true.
The Knicks had their best season of the millennium in 2022-2023
The average age of the Knicks’ rotation was under 25 years old
The Knicks possess as much draft capital as they have in the history of their franchise
With that information, and the NBA feeling as balanced as ever, it would seem difficult to prefer any path other than patience. After all, the Knicks just made the second round! And their young players should only get better. Surely progression will be linear… right?
It doesn’t always work that way
Let’s start with a hard truth: team progression is very rarely linear.
When I was in college, my best friend and I fell in love with Konami’s TNMT for Xbox. It had one of the coolest and most challenging multiplayer story mode games I’ve ever played. We spent months trying to beat it from the start in one sitting, never accepting a shortcut. When we finally overcame the final boss, we were ecstatic. The journey, filled with bumps and bruises, made the final destination worth it.
It’s easy to cling to memories of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen’s Chicago Bulls climbing the ladder of the NBA in a similar fashion. It seemed that each round had a new boss for these eventual Hall of Famers to overcome. First, it was the Bucks, then the Celtics, and finally the Pistons. As these kids grew into superstars, they kept trying and failing relentlessly, like college kids trying to beat a video game. In 1991, the baby Bulls had fully evolved into an unstoppable force, and they conquered the league, cruising through the East and winning their first NBA title.
But the NBA, like most things, is an always-evolving organism. The league isn’t what it once was. The Bulls could bet that players like Jordan and Pippen would develop more than players on rival teams. They were betting on superior internal development in a league of teams mostly looking to improve in a similar way. Acquisitions through free agency or trading with other teams were far less fervent. And the talent pool was smaller. In retrospect, the Bulls’ decision to bet on their kids was a relatively simple one.
The Knicks’ decision is far less straightforward. Few other Eastern Conference teams will rest on their laurels. They will be just as aware as the Knicks of how wide-open the league is and look to capitalize on this window of parity.
All of this is to say that if your expectation for next year’s Knicks is that the combination of a second-round exit with a young core will guarantee contention, I might pump the brakes a little. Of course, it’s possible. But it could just as easily stagnate or, as we saw in 2021-2022, go the other way.
OK, so the Knicks might not win a title, who cares?
On some level, I agree!
Winning a championship is REALLY difficult. If the Knicks’ plan is to keep kicking the can down the road until a certain level of superstar becomes available, I can’t say I would blame them. It’s reasonable to expect young players like RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes to continue improving. Jalen Brunson, just 26 years old himself, should be even more comfortable in the Knicks’ system.
And let’s not pretend like there isn’t risk involved in acting. Just as we learned about regression in 2021-2022, we also learned about the dangers of introducing unknown elements to a known formula. If the Knicks take a swing this offseason, and it’s the wrong one, they could find themselves behind the eight ball in a nanosecond, undoing years of meticulous work that put them in the advantageous position they find themselves in now.
But it’s important to remember that inaction carries risk as well. As much as Knicks fans want to sing Kumbaya and imagine a world where these kids grow up and bring a championship back to the Mecca, the most likely outcome sees at least one of Barrett, Quickley, or Grimes donning another jersey. With Barrett entering his fifth year, and extensions due the next couple of summers for Quickley and Grimes, the clock is officially ticking.
Barrett, coming off a disappointing regular season followed by an encouraging postseason, is not going to get the “he’s only X years old” treatment for much longer. Quickley, the rightful Sixth Man of the Year, is going to be much more expensive. The questions about his ceiling aren’t going away either. As long as he comes off the bench and the cloud of his underwhelming postseason hangs over him, there will always be those who doubt if he can be a high-level starter for a contending team.
When you start down that rabbit hole, an inescapable question arises; how do these assets appreciate? Again, it’s reasonable to expect individual improvement from young players, but what about the perception of these players across the league? For standing pat to be the best course of action, one of two things needs to happen — either the young players need to improve enough to put the Knicks firmly into true title contention, or their perception needs to improve so their value as assets increases from where it is now.
The Thibs of it all
This brings us to the crux of the issue: Tom Thibodeau remains head coach of the Knicks.
After three seasons as head coach, we know what to expect from Thibodeau. We know the basic offense that will be run, as well as the limiting rotations which lack both imagination and schematic diversity. Most importantly, we know how he operates. We know Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are going to be the main characters of the story of the 2023-2024 Knicks. Whether other players sink or swim will be entirely dependent on their ability to be supporting characters next to those two.
This isn’t meant to deride that strategy. After all, it won the Knicks 48 games and a playoff series. Maybe it is the best possible strategy for this collection of players. But there’s no question (to me) that should the Knicks of next season mirror last, the perceived value of the Knicks’ player assets that they presumably will look to trade one day is going to be lower next February than it is today. Barrett and Quickley will both improve, but it’s difficult for me to envision a world where either drastically rewrites the narrative about them as players. Not when the paradigm that they exist in is likely to remain the same.
More than anything, that’s really what this is all about. There is so much we don’t know. We have so many questions about this Knicks team because Thibodeau largely refuses to ask the questions. Is Quickley’s ceiling really that of a bench spark plug? The numbers certainly say otherwise. But Thibodeau sees Quickley only one way. So much so that Elfrid Payton, Kemba Walker, and Alec Burks were all given more (read: any) time at starting point guard than him. How would Barrett look if he operated in more space? Is it possible his natural position is that of a smaller power forward playing with three shooters, similar to Jayson Tatum or Jimmy Butler? The league is certainly moving in that direction. Yet, last season, Barrett played less than half the minutes at power forward than third-string center Jericho Sims did. Reminder: it’s 2023.
The truth of the matter is we have no idea what the ceiling of this collection of players is. And, as long as Thibodeau is head coach, I am skeptical we will ever find out. Should the Knicks run it back, the most likely outcome for next season is a similar result to that of last season. At which point I can only assume the Knicks’ front office will feel more urgency to make a splashy move. After all, it can’t be the head coach! Only then, the Knicks’ leverage will be lower as their intentions are more transparent.
This begs the question, if assets the Knicks view as trade chips are likely to stagnate or depreciate, and they find themselves outside the championship window, what exactly would the purpose of next season be? I understand that very little in the NBA is binary. Things like individual player improvement or even what dictates a successful season are not yes or no questions. There is always nuance involved. But in order to identify success you first need to have a purpose. And the more the Knicks play the waiting game, the more they kick the can down the road, I can’t help but think that not only do they not have one, they are actively avoiding creating any form of expectations.
This is why I think the Knicks need to make a move, if a reasonable one becomes available. It’s time to start asking the hard questions. If Thibodeau is a head coach who can win a championship, then it’s time to see it. The foundation has been set. And we have Thibodeau and Thibodeau alone to thank for that. Some coaches are best suited as floor-raisers. That’s okay! Mark Jackson laid the breadcrumbs for Steve Kerr. Dwane Casey did it for Nick Nurse in Toronto and the Pistons are hoping he did it for Monty Williams in Detroit.
What I fear, is that if the Knicks don’t do something, they will find themselves on this uphill climb stuck in neutral. It’s so easy to fall behind in this league. Teams are always getting smarter. We’ve seen what a desperate franchise looks like. After all, this is the franchise that traded two top 10 picks for Eddy Curry. That desperation stems from a feeling of needing to catch up. The Knicks are ahead of the curve, for now. Will it stay that way?
Only time will tell.
