Just let Deuce loose
The Knicks’ sixth man has been one of their most impactful players this season. Why isn’t he seeing the floor more?
We can say the quiet part out loud: The Knicks have gotten bulldozed by the top three teams in the league this season. They’ve played at least two games against each of the Celtics (three games), Cavs, and Thunder. They’ve been outscored by 63 points by the Celtics, 43 points by the Cavs, and 35 points by the Thunder... a whopping -141 point differential.
It looks like we’re watching the Knicks play a different sport in those games — except for the first three quarters in the first matchups vs. the Cavs and Thunder… and for a quarter vs. the Celtics on Sunday.
It’s no fun seeing some of our starters get their doors blown off on both ends, but the biggest concern for myself is watching Thibs allow Precious Achiuwa to continuously get major minutes in those games recently. He played 28 minutes on Friday vs. the Cavs, but it’s that little because he didn’t play in the fourth quarter. He played 33 minutes vs. the Celtics last Sunday (and only 15 minutes this Sunday).
This is no disrespect to Precious... he’s been put in a tough position, as he’s a rotation player being thrust into a bigger role because of injuries. However, the role shouldn’t be this big. Thibs will probably tell you he’s afraid of losing the battle on the boards, but in a very limited 17-minute sample size, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ariel Hukporti have thrived together – Hukporti plays defense like he’s doing soccer drills.
I’m burying the lede a bit here, but the obvious answer is less Achiuwa and way, way more Deuce McBride. Sure, it’s not some fool-proof singular answer to taking down these top teams, but the numbers say it buys you winning minutes.
For starters, and let me be clear, I’m not saying to start Deuce when all the usual starting five is healthy… but the Knicks have won 20 of 30 games this season where McBride has played at least 22 minutes. He has 44/41/87 shooting splits in those 30 games, which comes out to a 59.2% true-shooting percentage (TS%).
Deuce McBride, 2024-25 Season Stats
When Playing 22+ Minutes (30 Games)
*20-10 record this season when playing 22+ minutes
Overall, the Knicks are good… with and without McBride on the floor. The end-goal for the Knicks isn’t to just be “good,” though. They’re out-scoring teams by 8.1 points per 100 possessions this season with McBride on the floor. It’s down to 2.8 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor.
Knicks On-Off Stats, 2024-25 Season
With/Without Deuce McBride on Floor
And let me be clear again: I am not saying to start McBride over Josh Hart when all things are equal in health. I’m saying to play Deuce with Jalen Brunson whenever you can… and to play him with Josh Hart when it’s possible, too!
Both Brunson and Hart have seen pretty sizable jumps to their TS% with Deuce on the floor with them this season, as opposed to him being on the bench.
With Brunson, it’s simple: You’re giving him more spacing with another shooter out there with him. With Hart, you’re allowing him to veer towards the paint–where he can create via a rim attempt, as he’s one of the best at scoring at the rim in the sport, or he can kick out to one of the other shooters waiting open for a three.
Notable Player Splits, 2024-25 Season
TS% With/Without Deuce McBride on Floor
McBride isn’t your usual floor-raising guard. He isn’t a quality ball-handler and he isn’t really able to create advantages himself. However, he provides exceptional spacing and on-ball defense – and him being on the floor allows Mikal Bridges to roam more on defense off the ball and not constantly have to be at the point of attack.
Each two-man lineup that includes one of the five regular starters (Brunson, Bridges, Hart, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns) with McBride has virtually blown teams off the court.
Over the last two seasons (and just this season for the new guys), four of the five two-man lineups have outscored opponents by around or more than 10 points per 100 during that span.
The Deuce and Hart lineup numbers are a bit skewed because the bench lineups they played in following the Anunoby trade got nuked and there were weird games that they both started together and Brunson would sit. Just this season, the Deuce and Hart lineups have outscored teams by 5.2 points per 100 possessions. For what it’s worth, the three-man lineup of Brunson, Deuce, and Hart since the start of last season has outscored opposing teams by 11 points per 100 possessions.
Notable Two-Man Lineups
New York Knicks – Last Two Seasons
*KAT & Bridges acquired after 2023-24 season
There are three specific lineups that intrigue me – all including McBride – but they have been barely used this season.
Brunson/Deuce/Hart/OG/KAT
(72 minutes)
138.0 ORtg | 108.3 DRtg | +29.7 NetRtg
Deuce/Bridges/Hart/OG/KAT
(37 minutes)
130.9 ORtg | 115.6 DRtg | +15.3 NetRtg
Brunson/Deuce/Bridges/OG/KAT
(36 minutes)
135.6 ORtg | 118.7 DRtg | +16.9 NetRtg
When everyone is healthy, those three lineups need to be thrown out there more. It’s an indictment on the coaching staff to not try any and all combinations that could lead this team to more success. Those are three very feasible lineups that have demolished opponents this season that just don’t get used. With OG back in the fold – at least making it through this past weekend – you can play around with these combos.
The first lineup was used a few times in Jan. when everyone was healthy. We saw it more in Jan. with Thibs trying to limit Bridges’ minutes – since he’s so active in the defensive game.
And with everyone back healthy – sans Mitchell Robinson – in Sunday’s loss, Thibs went to that lineup twice: for 78 seconds near the end of the first quarter and for 10 minutes and 16 seconds after the first three minutes of the second half. The Knicks outscored the Celtics, 35-21, with a 175 OffRtg and 105 DefRtg during that second stint. Before Sunday, the lineup hadn’t played more than seven minutes together in a single game.
The second lineup hasn’t been used for more than 90 seconds since Dec. 5 (it’s a way to get Brunson off his feet). That probably mostly has to do with Thibs not wanting to have the non-Brunson minutes be without a true point guard… but Bridges and Hart have definitely shown at times that they can initiate the offense.
The third lineup was used for 85 seconds vs. the Cavs in Friday’s blowout loss and was the Knicks’ best lineup (in the smallest of sample sizes). When Hart is healthy, it gives him more rest minutes and it gives you a true five-out offense, while improving your POA defense, since McBride is a better defender than Hart.
Again, these are just concepts of a plan. We’re brainstorming here. I don’t believe you have to completely alter the starting five… they can all still stay together. However, it’s pertinent to give the team its best chance to win – and that means playing Deuce more.
