Draft Profile: Killian Hayes
Position: PG, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Age: 18
Height: 6 ft 5 in
Wingspan: 6 ft 8 in
Weight: 210 lbs
The Sales Pitch: While all of ESPN’s favorite guards like Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony, and LaMelo Ball were struggling to hit 40% of their shots versus future summer camp counselors and data scientists, 6-foot-5 point guard Killian Hayes was shooting almost 50% vs. adults in a German league featuring some former NBA and D1 players, while being the main offensive threat on his (bad) team. Also, the kid is an above-average finisher, plus midrange shooter, and despite shooting 30% from three, he projects well there too thanks to a top-notch FT% and shooting 42% on off-the-dribble threes (AKA the most important shot in basketball). He also had the same number of assists per 36 minutes as LaMelo Ball, and blew the other PGs in this class out of the water both on- and off-ball defensively. There is a strong argument that he’s the best prospect in this class, or at minimum the most well-rounded.
Check out The Strickland’s 2020 NBA Draft Big Board here!
Elite Traits/Skills: FT% is elite, off the dribble shooting is elite (or close to elite) for his age, size for the position is near elite (height/strength).
The Devil’s Advocate argument: Just because he gave Peyton Siva buckets in ze Deutschland doesn’t mean he will be the same scoring threat in the NBA. He isn’t explosive at all, and for all his left-handed passing skills, on the right side of the court his passing ability is severely diminished. Finally, while he might shoot 90% from the line, he has still yet to clear 30% from three in a season in Europe, ever. For all the “safe pick” vibes he gives off, lots of his draft stock stems from projecting shooting. Without consistent 3-point shooting, is the midrange game and finesse finishing really good enough for a top-10 pick?
The Misconceptions: Some might say he’s some Ntilikina-esque passive big guard who doesn’t play an NBA style game. The kid runs tons of pick-and-rolls, and more than half his threes in 2020 were step-backs, to the point where he might have been hurting his team by relying on them. Finally, he already has a number of go-to moves and shots at the rim, from midrange, and from three. He’s a bucket whose game resembles a confident but coachable AAU star.
Important numbers:
48/29/88%: His FG/3P/FT percentages. The FT% in particular is a good sign for future 3-point shooting prowess.
60%: His percentage on 2-point shots after Jan. 1, 2020, when his 3-point shot abandoned him for the rest of his season. Despite shooting below 25% on threes for three months, he became more efficient scoring inside the arc, both on midrange shots and finishing at the rim.
42%: His 3P% on off-the-dribble shots this season, a ridiculous number. He is very, very good at the most important shot for guards in the modern NBA.
18%: His 3P% off the catch. Not great! Has some footwork issues to clean up.
Knicks Fit: Ideal fit. A big lead guard through and through who can organize the offense, probably can shoot, can go get a bucket, and can play physical and smart defense.
Educate yourself on some other potential Knicks: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Okongwu
