Draft Profile: Obi Toppin
Position: PF/C (Dayton)
Age: 22
Height: 6 ft 9 in
Wingspan: 6 ft 11 in
Weight: 220 lbs
The Sales Pitch: Before this year, the list of NBA forwards that averaged at least 20 points and had a 68% true shooting in college consisted of only one player: Zion Williamson. Enter Obi Toppin. Toppin was a 4/5 at Dayton, where he was the most productive player in the country by many measures and by the eye test. He was older than his opponents, but he utterly dominated them, finishing plays efficiently and dismantling defenses with elite finishing, sky-high dunks, stretching the floor, impressive one-hand passes, and high IQ play. He’s a weak defender, but if you have a front court partner who can mask his skills, you are looking at what is almost certainly going to be the most prolific and productive offensive player in this draft class. What separates him from the Aaron Gordons and Julius Randles of the world is that he is a play finisher and play maker — and he knows it. He doesn’t waste time pretending he’s a point-forward. He’s immensely talented, but also is acutely aware of his strengths and weaknesses. Pick him and take his elite skills to the bank, worry about the dollars-to-defense ratio later.
Check out The Strickland’s 2020 NBA Draft Big Board here!
Elite Skills: Vertical athleticism, finishing, scoring efficiency.
The Devil’s Advocate Argument: He’ll give you buckets galore, but so do Julius Randle and John Collins. Those guys give it all back on defense — and at least they rebound well, unlike Toppin. Toppin played half his minutes at the 5 for Dayton, and even at that spot with his great size and hops versus future social media managers, he was a flat out mediocre rim protector and shitty rebounder, not to mention a horrible pick-and-roll and help defender due to his combination of poor instincts, poor flexibility, and poor lateral movement. While it would be nice to have a scorer like him, we know he won’t get penalized for his defense at all when payday comes, and how good an offensive player does one have to be to deserve a paycheck north of 20 million (the kind he very well may get)? What happens if they aren’t as good as Blake Griffin or Amar’e? Burning that pile of money is his best case outcome.
The Misconceptions: It’s not quite a misconception, but a misunderstanding: He is elite athletically when it comes to leaping (both feet or one foot) but is equally horrible moving backwards and laterally. So calling him an elite athlete isn’t quite accurate or inaccurate — it is incomplete.
Important Numbers:
99th percentile: Points Per Possession for Obi on all plays
68: His TS%
90th Percentile: Half-court Points Per Jump Shot percentile
73%: FG% at the rim
Knicks Fit: Mitchell Robinson might be gifted enough to cover for his foibles on defense, and Toppin would be the best play finisher the Knicks have had since Amar’e. Whether his fit is great or not depends on how you philosophically view offensively-gifted, defensively-challenged front court players. If Randle was moved, Toppin’s fit on offense on the court would be seamless. On defense, his fit is an open question.
Educate yourself on some other potential Knicks: Killian Hayes, LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Okongwu, Devin Vassell, Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams, Grant Riller
