The Knicks’ patient and prudent approach requires an eventual payoff
While the Knicks had, on paper, a smart and sensible offseason, Shwinnypooh writes that, at some point, they need to be ready to pull the trigger on a bigger move to make the team better, and capitalize on the potential that the previous front office could not.
For a brief moment at the outset of free agency, I allowed myself to dream. I had visions of a world where the Knicks added pieces who could immediately bump up their competitive baseline while providing the type of on-court support system that would accentuate the strengths of their young players. Adding Gordon Hayward to help shoulder the playmaking burden with his jack-of-all trades style and Malik Beasley as a legit floor-spacing bomber to open up the paint for RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and most recently indoctrinated OAKAAK Obi Toppin to do their thing.
And then it was gone. In a flash. It became clear in the early hours of free agency that despite New York’s best efforts, Hayward’s future lay elsewhere — and at four years, $120 million that’s fine by me. Beasley signed a four-year, $60 million extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves, then started gallivanting around with Larsa Pippen all while likely facing a suspension for off-court legal transgressions, all of which I’m certain would have played out beautifully in New York.
So the Knicks were once again left to mine through the bargain bins of free agency and stay flexible for an unknown future. To the credit of Leon Rose and his his revamped front office they resisted the allure of making any trades like the rumored one for Russell Westbrook, which would have delivered some marginal immediate satisfaction with little benefit to their present or long-term goals. And not only did they get good value in signing Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks, and Austin Rivers, but they also turned $4 million in cap space into three second-round picks plus fliers on Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans, two rookie contract players with two years left on their deals. The Knicks still have $18.6M in cap space left, making them an obvious trade partner for teams who look to dump salary in season.
It’s smart. It’s prudent. They did nothing that compromises their future, and added some pieces that could even benefit them down the line. Great.
I know they almost certainly did the right thing. Some of the wild spending and decision making we saw from teams around the league in a shallow free-agent class was reminiscent of the infamous summer of 2016, which left instant buyer’s remorse contracts littered around the league, most of which just expired. Now we have a new wave of ‘em.
Not the Knicks, though. They stayed the course, kept things tight, and did the smart, prudent thing this offseason. I get it, and hell I’ve even defended and lauded them for it. It does seem like they’re at least operating with the type of patience and willingness to explore options that have not been hallmarks of previous front office regimes. They did the right thing this offseason.
But that’s this offseason. At some point the Knicks will need to do more than avoid making bad decisions in free agency. They’ll need to make good ones that help them move up the win curve. It’s all well and good to sign solid value short-term contracts, but the Knicks have to be able to help themselves.
To be fair, there are signs they understand that. Steve Mills, Scott Perry, and David Fizdale talked a lot about player development, but they didn’t invest much into it with the smallest coaching staff in the league and a G-League pipeline that didn’t function as one. Rose and Thibs haven’t just talked the talk, but with the addition of coaches with solid track records in development like Kenny Payne, Johnnie Bryant III, and, most recently Darren Erman, the Knicks are walking the walk as well.
That’s no small thing, at least not for an organization that has expected stars to sign on the dotted line without doing any of the hard work to justify that faith. The Knicks still haven’t signed a drafted player to a rookie extension since Charlie Ward, an incredible and damning fact that makes clear the organization’s lack of stability and failure to develop talent. Both Mitchell Robinson and Frank Ntilikina are eligible this offseason; we haven’t heard that anything is in the works for them currently.
Again, I get it. Robinson has been extremely promising, but hasn’t proven he can maintain that level of impact in a starting role or control his predilection for fouls. Ntilikina has been an enigma — one whose box score production has been less than inspiring — yet his presence on the court for three years running has worked out as a net positive for the team. How do you even price an extension for him, and how invested do they want to be in his future?
It’s more than reasonable to let the new coaching staff get a chance to really work with them, and really everybody, before making any decisions of importance. Maintaining the financial flexibility the organization has isn’t a bad choice by any means. Lord knows throwing away open cap space as soon as it becomes available has long been a crippling bugaboo for the organization.
However, risk aversion doesn’t make you competitive. Being a bystander to your own fate and hoping ping pong balls can deliver a savior to your doorstep every year isn’t an answer that is going to buy you much patience from most owners, let alone James Dolan.
Leon must know this. If the reporting is true, the motivation, at least partly, must be to acquire draft capital they can use to land a star in trade. That’s a proactive approach to achieving success in that endeavor.
But the biggest part of the Knicks achieving that goal will lie in their commitment to and success with development. The resources have certainly been invested into that branch of the organization and there’s no shortage of young players on the roster. As things currently stand, regardless of how you feel about each of them, the Knicks have 10 — yes, 10 — rookie contract players on the roster.
We can boil it down even further. There are three whose development is critical to any hopes the Knicks have of becoming enticing a star in free agency or acquiring in trade: Robinson, Toppin and Barrett. Everybody else is small potatoes. Progression from Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr, etc., would be small victories that help to provide faith in the process, but they are unlikely to move the needle in a major way for the franchise. The progression of Obi, Mitch, and RJ is what will ultimately define the success or failure of the Leon Rose era.
So really — and this is the frustrating part — it’s not too far off to say that the Knicks are exactly where they were at the conclusion of last season except for the addition of Toppin. They have plenty of future cap flexibility, picks galore, and, most importantly a slew of young players whose development is critical to making them an attractive destination for the stars they crave.
2020 was the time for patience and prudence, but moving forward Leon Rose and Tom Thibodeau will need to show us the merits of this approach. In and of itself it doesn’t mean anything, as a similarly risk-averse method under the previous braintrust in the summer of 2019— with an admittedly far less shrewd process — made clear.
Let’s hope this regime can do more with the raw building blocks of a promising future at their disposal. Moving forward the Knicks need to demonstrate they can be proactive about improving and building out a cohesive roster via draft and development, free agency, and trades. Simply failing to do stupid things is no longer a standard worth celebrating.
