Late Round Point Guards, Part 2: Immanuel Quickley
While much of the focus of the Knicks draft-o-sphere has been on who they will take with the No. 8 pick/whether they will trade up for LaMelo Ball/whether Tyrese Halliburton will ever make a pull-up three in the NBA, the Knicks have two other picks at 27 and 38. Unless Killian Hayes falls to eight or the Knicks trade back, it is highly likely the Knicks will take a wing with the No. 8 pick. Even if they don’t, the end of the first round looks to be especially deep at the guard position. With playmaking and shooting being massive needs for the Knicks, this three-part deep-dive series takes a look at three point guards who might be in play and could be useful late-draft picks. Check out the first part, featuring Cassius Winston.
Immanuel Quickley, G, University of Kentucky
6-foot-3, 190 lbs, 21 years old
Strengths
Quickley is a pure shooter. For starters, there’s this:
That’s 78 of 84 made threes. Even in an empty gym, that’s impressive. The consensus back-of-the-napkin math is that whatever a player shoots in a large sample in a gym (i.e. not 20 shots, but closer to 75 or 100), cutting it in half yields a likely approximation of what they might shoot in games; 93% halved is 46.5%, not far from his sophomore year numbers of 43% on 145 attempts.
Mechanically, Quickley has a smooth, one-motion form out of a 1-2 step into his jump shot. He displayed the versatility to shoot off movement, catch and shoot, and even some pull-up ability.
This is special: off-balance on a pull-up with the shot clock running down in a marquee game:
Here he is with a smooth sidestep and reset after a close-out. His upper body mechanics are flawless and remarkably consistent:
Here he is making the right read on a screen, popping out and shooting off movement over a hard closeout. Note also that this is in overtime of a game in which Quickley played 37 minutes against a very physical defense, so impressive leg strength and stamina on display here:
Here’s another shot off movement, this time victimizing Kira Lewis Jr. on a pin-down screen. I was very impressed with Quickley’s ability to correctly read defenders and efficiently use screens and space to get open:
He was mostly used as a shooter sharing the floor with two other star guards in Tyrese Maxey and Ashton Hagans, but Quickley did show the ability to attack closeouts as well.
There are some flashes of self-creation and he has the potential to be more than just a shooter. This is a nice combo to create space for the pull-up, but to do this consistently at the next level Quickley will have to improve his ball handling tremendously:
Here is a nice step back off a pick-and-roll. Quickley’s footwork is excellent and he shows a good sense of angles and pace around screens:
Quickley is not only a deadly shooter. As I mentioned, he has good feel for using space both with and without screens and understands how to relocate to put maximum pressure on the defense while giving the best possible passing angle to his teammates.
Great recognition here as his man digs down to help on Hagans; instead of staying in the same spot, Quickley immediately relocates to the corner to give Hagans an easy angle and force a more difficult closeout:
What is perhaps surprising about Quickley’s profile at first glance is his free throw rate, which was 47.1%. For a player who is mostly a shooter (43.8% 3PAr), that’s a very high number. It’s easy to see why on film.
Although Quickley is very skinny, he shows the willingness and ability to finish through contact on drives. Even though he was mostly a shooter, when asked to attack or create he would seek contact on drives and showed the body control and touch to finish through contact. Moreover, there are numerous instances of him using the aggressiveness of defenders chasing him through screens against them to draw cheap fouls.
He’s a crafty player who knows how to use his length and body positioning and I believe this will translate to the next level. There has been a trend of Kentucky players in lower-usage roles with high efficiency outperforming their draft position in the NBA, and Quickley’s shooting and foul-drawing ability led to a 58% true shooting percentage that could bode well for his NBA future.
This is an impressive finish in transition despite a hard foul. Quickley gets the step, maintains body control, and gets the and-one. This is encouraging, especially for someone who struggles overall as a a finisher:
This is another nice finish through contact. Watch Quickley seek contact, maintain body control, and wrap around the defender with the soft touch to get the layup:
On defense, Quickley’s 6-foot-10 wingspan allows him to play bigger than his 6-foot-3 height, and he’s a terrific on- and off-ball defender, using his size and length to give opposing guards problems. He is able to play aggressively at the point of attack, shows a good nose for passing lanes and keeps his head on a swivel off ball. He should be able to guard two positions at the next level, provided he can add some weight.
Here he is matched up with potential first-round pick Jahmi’us Ramsey. He mirrors Ramsey perfectly and uses his length to block the jump shot (this clip and the next two are from Adam Spinella’s excellent breakdown of Quickley; highly recommend watching it here ).
On this play, Quickley is matched up in an isolation situation with potential No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards. Even after Edwards is able to create some space with the jab step, look at Quickley’s recovery. His length is a major advantage for him to recover and contest, even if he gets beat:
Thanks to his length, Quickley can switch onto some wings and other bigger, stronger players. Even when a stronger player is able to win a position battle against Quickley, his length creates difficult angles and contested shots. Here he is switched onto 6-foot-6, 210 lb. Michigan State small forward Aaron Henry (who would likely be in first round consideration had he chosen to declare for the draft). Quickley holds up well against Henry’s post-up, using his lower body to hold position, and does a good job of creating a very difficult hook shot with his length:
Weaknesses
You tell me. What stands out about this shot chart?
The 58% above the break is scorching, but that 45% at the rim is not going to cut it, I don’t care how many fouls you draw. This shot chart (from NBA.com and Synergy) also includes transition plays, so it likely actually overstates Quickley’s finishing percentage a bit. I like the aggression and his willingness to seek contact on drives, but it would be nice to see Quickley develop a Eurostep or some other counter when he meets length at the rim. I think the touch and length are there, but in the absence of Russell Westbrook- or Ja Morant-like athleticism, smaller players must be creative, versatile finishers. He does have a nice floater, so if he can combine this with a counter, he can put bigs in a bind; but right now his paint game is a pretty substantial negative.
Despite his physical tools and defensive instincts, Quickley posted an underwhelming steal rate of 1.6%. This could be attributed to Kentucky’s scheme, but isn’t the best news for a guy who will likely want to add value on defense as part of his profile. In addition, Quickley is not much of a playmaker. He’s a willing passer who shows enough vision to make basic reads, but he isn’t much of a creator at this point (though, as noted above, this could partly be attributed to a lack of opportunity in Kentucky’s offense).
While it was encouraging to see him create opportunities at the rim, he did not show much explosive ability off the dribble and will struggle to drive to the cup on his own at the next level. He must continue to add strength and ball handling ability if this is ever to be a big part of his game. Quickley is also 21 years old, which is a bit old for a sophomore.
Overall
Quickley has a bit of a unique profile. A pure volume gunner at high efficiency, if his shooting translates he’ll be able to bend defenses with his combination of range, movement shooting, and ability to attack closeouts. On defense, he has the potential to provide lineup versatility, and I’d expect his events generation to be much better than his college stats showed. With his combination of versatile shooting, aggressive on-ball defense, and the length to have some switch-ability, Quickley has an easy path to value as a useful rotation piece, perhaps even a playoff-proof one.
But a team will have to be creative with how they use him, as they must be with any sub-6-foot-5 player without plus creation abilities. If he finds the right fit (teams with big wing initiators would be ideal, but really any team that already has a strong primary can benefit from his presence) he can add a lot of value as a microwave scorer.
This would be well and good for a solid value pick at 38. But could there be more? Here is a list of Kentucky guards under John Calipari, taken from an excellent piece on Tyrese Maxey by Shwinny and Prez:
There are a lot of interesting indicators here, but what stands out to me is the true shooting percentage. The three off-ball snipers listed — Herro, Monk, and Booker — all had a true shooting percentage of 58% or higher. Both Herro and Booker showed much more ability to create in the pros than at Kentucky. Monk was a bit of a different story, but a lot of his struggles have seemed to be caused by off-the-court issues (for what it’s worth, he did finish last season quite strong before the hiatus).
But the fact is, Kentucky recruits lots of talented players, and players often show less than they are capable of to fit the team concept. Booker is the biggest example of this, but Gilgeous-Alexander and PJ Washington are other examples of Kentucky players who outperformed their draft position; all three sported very efficient true shooting percentage for their position on lower usage. Personally, I didn’t see enough ball handling shake or explosiveness from Quickley to project with confidence that he’s going to look like Herro or Booker. But it’s quite possible he has more creation ability than he has shown and can scale up to be an even more impactful offensive player in the NBA.
Fit on the Knicks
The Knicks are badly in need of shooters, but it’s not like they didn’t have shooters on the roster last year. The Knicks are badly in need of defense, but it’s not like they didn’t have defenders on the roster last year. What New York lacked was people who could threaten the defense from range and be capable (even plus) defenders. Frank Ntilikina was too inconsistent in the former; Reggie Bullock and Wayne Ellington were uninspiring on the latter (I hear you getting your pitchforks, Dot hive, but even Damyean Dotson only shot 36% and had bouts of getting caught ball-watching on defense).
Quickley, though undersized, can guard 1s and 2s and his length can bother ball handlers as well as clog up passing lanes. If he has some untapped playmaking that we didn’t get to see at Kentucky, that would be gravy, but even without that the Knicks’ rotation could sorely use true two-way players like him, especially those who are elite and versatile shooters. Pick 27 might be a little too high for him, unless Kenny Payne has some intel on that untapped ability (and I’d be willing to give the Knicks the benefit of the doubt there), but if the Knicks trade back or buy another second-round pick they should definitely look at him, and of course if he’s still available at 38 (and he is often mocked here or lower) I think he would be excellent value.
