Macri’s Missives: What to do at pick 8
Macri’s Missives is a weekly column published on The Strickland, typically every Thursday, where Jonathan Macri has a candid email exchange with a guest. Think of it almost like a written podcast. This week, Macri is joined by draft expert Spencer Pearlman, who has done draft writing for The Stepien and consulted for the Phoenix Suns prior to the 2019 NBA Draft.
On Fri, Aug 21, 2020 at 8:43 AM Jonathan Macri wrote:
Hey there Spencer!
Spence, Spence, Spence-a-roo...
Sorry if I'm a bit loopy. Too much podcasting and not enough sleep will do that to you. And, if we're being honest, one too many brews to drown the sorrows of last night's lottery drawing.
So I picked you to have my email exchange with for one simple reason: I blame you for my despair.
Six months ago, I couldn’t have gave two shits less about this lottery. The best prospect was a defensively indifferent point guard who can't shoot? HA! Wake me for the Cade Sweepstakes.
Now I'm sitting here clutching my pearls hoping that Obi f----- Toppin drops to us and I want to shoot myself.
No, actually, I want to shoot you. So unless you want this exchange to be a series of expletive-laden tirades, you better make me feel better about life, and quick.
On Fri, Aug 21, 2020 at 9:36 AM Spencer Pearlman wrote:
GOOD MORNING, SIR.
I would like to start this off by saying I approve of the Guinness choice from last night. I am also slightly afraid of where this is going — is it too late to drop out of this now?
But to actually try to make you feel better... *clears throat*
Devin Vassell, Isaac Okoro, Killian Hayes (potentially), Kira Lewis, Tyrese Maxey... and, last but not least, Aleksej Pokuševski are on the list (kudos to me for figuring out that if you hold down "s" on the keyboard, you can accent that letter. And for memorizing how to spell his name). What is this a list of? Just a few players who are projected to go around No. 8, and who could be available when the Knicks pick. Aren't you feeling a little better now?
Check out The Strickland’s 2020 NBA Draft Big Board!
If you want another angle to help you feel better, yesterday (Aug. 20) it was announced Ben Affleck is coming back for the Flashpoint movie and tomorrow (Aug. 22) we are getting our first Justice League Snyder Cut trailer! Things are looking up!
On Fri, Aug 21, 2020 at 10:26 AM Jonathan Macri wrote:
Oh, you want out, pretty boy? Well to that I say...
Also, congrats on figuring out how to use your keyboard, and take your shitty DC movie takes elsewhere (although I have to say, the new The Batman logo got me kind of hype).
Anyway, let's do some cross-off's. They're not taking Poku, not at eight at least. You know it and I know it. Is there a trade down that makes sense for them to take him at a lower pick? I just don't see the team that's going to give up a juicy asset to move up 5 or 10 spots such that New York would be comfortable trading down. But who knows.
Let's put Hayes aside for a second, because I think we agree if he's there, he's the pick. And I'll get back to Kira and Maxey. Okoro vs. Vassell... for where this roster is right now, and what we can imagine the Knicks’ plan/priorities might be, put your GM hat on for a second and tell me which way you'd lean.
On Fri, Aug 21, 2020 at 3:21 PM Spencer Pearlman wrote:
My correct DC movie takes are staying, and the light will be seen in 2021 when people realize I was right. (But, yeah, I can't WAIT until The Batman comes out — gonna be so cool.)
Honestly, I think the Spurs might take Poku with their pick if he's not picked before, so I doubt there's even a realistic trade down scenario in play where the Knicks can get him... but I will continue pushing/hoping for it until it doesn't happen, because I have nothing to lose.
Okoro vs. Vassell is tough. Okoro is the much better man-to-man defender, has more positional versatility, better slasher, better finisher, and is also a better passer — he can legit create from the wing. Vass is the better team defender in that he's elite in that area (though Okoro is damn good here too) and has a better/safer jumper.
At the risk of pissing you off and playing the lawyer role, I can see either being a good fit — it really just depends on what the Knicks want. If you take Okoro, you are really just betting on him becoming a better catch-and-shoot player. That's pretty much it. If you are betting on Vass, you're hoping his man-to-man defense improves* and the 3-point rate goes up (though it should go up with Okoro too, if the jumper comes around). If Vass' 3Pr stays on the low end, it's hard for him to really get to plus-impact on offense, whereas there are easier routes for Okoro to reach it even if he can only get to 33% from the outside. If I HAD to pick one of the two, I'd lean towards Okoro because his ceiling is higher, he still has an awesome floor, and I think he can reach low- to mid-30s from three without having to prognosticate too much — I think he's a safer bet than others, I guess.
Check out The Strickland’s full Devin Vassell prospect profile!
Also, just for shits and giggles, I did a podcast with Alex Wolfe earlier today (Ed. note: Check out Locked On Knicks!) and brought up: How would it be possible for LaMelo to fall to No. 8 (or 6 and the Knicks can trade up)? Look at this:
Pick No. 1, Minnesota: Anthony Edwards; 2, Golden State: Deni Avdija; 3, Charlotte: Onyeka Okongwu/James Wiseman (can't count out the Hornets from making an unexpected pick... so just for the lols I'll put in Cole here also, though, no, I'm not taking him anywhere near three); 4, Chicago: Toppin or Okoro; 5, Cleveland: Toppin/Okoro/Okongwu; 6, Atlanta: (the spot for the Knicks to trade up to get LaMelo?) Okoro/Haliburton/Vassell; 7, Detroit: Hayes; 8, New York: ...LaMelo.
Is it likely? No. Possible? Yes. I apologize to everyone who will now think this is a viable option and will feel upset when this does not happen. Remember, it was Alex who invited me on Locked On Knicks and Macri who asked me if I wanted to do the email exchange, so this is on them.
On Sun, Aug 23, 2020 at 1:52 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:
The funniest thing about your last email is that since you sent it, all the DC trailers dropped and I received MULTIPLE ALL CAPS TEXTS FROM YOU BECAUSE YOU WERE SO GOSH DARN EXCITED. And I love you for that.
I also love you for your undying belief that the Knicks might end up with Poku. Let's agree that if they somehow do, we're going streaking.
I do NOT love you for blaming me for people being mad at your tomfoolery, nor do I appreciate you doing the thing you knew would piss me off, but your rationale for waffling on Okoro/Vass is obviously legit. My gut for weeks has said Okoro for the same reason as you: the ceiling is higher, and the floor isn't bad. And, if I may: if the playoffs are reminding us of anything, it's that the only thing that might be more valuable than shooting is playmaking. Okoro's ceiling as a playmaker simply can't be dismissed.
People also act like Vassell is going to come in and defend like Mikal Bridges has all year and shoot it like Bridges did in the bubble, and I'm sorry, but expecting a guy who just turned 20 to do what Mikal just did on the verge of turning 24 — with four years in Villanova's program, and two years of NBA experience — is nuts. Vassell's going to struggle, and there's a significant chance he's not a huge contributor this season.
OK, so now that we have that sorted out, one more for you: It's the eighth pick, and Hayes and Okoro are both gone. Let's also assume Okongwu is gone, because I feel like the Okongwu/Mitch/center/trade discussion requires its own thread. Obi is staring you in the face, as is Vassell. You also have damn good reason to believe that you can trade down, pick up a decent asset, and end up with either Kira Lewis or Tyrese Maxey. Do you definitely do the trade down? Would it be contingent on getting Kira, or would it also depend on how decent the asset is?
You have 60 seconds before this email self destructs.
On Sun, Aug 23, 2020 at 2:51 PM Spencer Pearlman wrote:
I may, or may not, have watched the Snyder Cut trailer eight(?) times, the WW84 trailer three times, The Batman trailer three times, and the video game trailers as well. I cannot confirm or deny that, but I can confirm I did send multiple all-caps texts and I am still insanely pumped for everything coming out.
I’m not sure how my fiancée Ashley would feel about me streaking if they did draft Poku, but I’m willing to bet she would not be too thrilled.
Okoro’s thing is that he’s just so well-rounded with everything besides shooting — where he’s shown nice flashes off the bounce — and his form isn’t broken, so there’s no reason to think he won’t develop into a serviceable shooter from the outside. Vassell is also less developed as a shooter than Mikal was coming out of Villanova… man, they really should have picked Mikal. I said it then and I will continue saying it — that was a big, big, big, big, big mistake.
I’d just like to point out that you did not say LaMelo is gone in this scenario, so with the 8th overall selection, the New York Knicks select… LaMelo Ball!
If he’s not there though, I’d trade down a few spots (Phoenix maybe? Boston?) and try to pick up an asset along the way. I think Kira fits better in NY than Maxey, but I still believe Maxey will be a quality two-way player. I also think, given Johnnie Bryant’s track record developing players in Utah, giving him someone with Maxey’s touch in the paint, mid-game, and strength could be worthwhile. That said, the same can be said (does that work?) for Kira. Basically, if you can trade down a few picks and still be guaranteed one of those guys while picking up a late first (doubtful) or early second, I’d 100% do it.
Maybe the Kings would do No. 8 for 12 and 35? You could try to take Poku there (I think SAS might take him at 11, though) or take Kira or Maxey if they fall. Then at 33, you can take someone like Malachi Flynn (because hopefully Desmond Bane is long gone), Isaiah Joe (though he should be taken before), Robert Woodard is an intriguing combo forward, Xavier Tillman can easily be a big rotation piece under any coach, but especially Thibs, or maybe even Grant Riller if he falls. Then, at 38, maybe one of those options are still available and you can double dip? Maybe Leandro Bolmaro is still there? I’d take Killian Tillie at 38, even with the injury concerns, because he’s that skilled where the reward could be huge.
I’m all for trading down a few spots and getting another pick in the draft. I just don’t think I’d trade down a bunch, unless you’re trading down from like eight to mid-teens and taking Bane when he’s there.
Kind of cool though, I opened this email nearly 50 minutes after it was delivered, and yet I’m still here… it must have to do with my skin absorbing sunlight, making me stronger...
On Sun, Aug 23, 2020 at 9:24 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:
I think it's kind of cool that a DCU-obsessed, possibly insane person is going to be running an NBA team some day (and of course, that I can call you my friend).
It's funny you mention trading down for an extra pick, because all this week for the KFS Newsletter (I'm writing this on Sunday night, for anyone wondering why I'm talking about something that already happened in the future tense) I'll be writing about trade-downs, but not for picks — for active players. I just can't imagine the Knicks going into camp with rookie players taking up essentially a quarter of their roster (although I suppose they could stash Bolmaro, but even so...). I hope I'm wrong.
Anyway, I ADORE how you completely ignored Obi in your response. And that's not me being a dick; it just makes me happy that you're completely dismissive (consciously or otherwise) of someone I think would be a terrible fit on the Knicks.
So I guess the last question before I go, because people will be mad if I don't ask it: if Mitch, 27 and the 2021 Dallas pick gets you Ball, and you still end up with Okongwu, you making the deal?
On Mon, Aug 24, 2020 at 6:45 PM Spencer Pearlman wrote:
If it never gets public, when you see a report that says "[Insert team here] has petitioned the board of governors and the NBA to change the team name to ‘Kryptonians,’ ” you will know which team I work for.
I think you'd have to trade down quite a bit to take Bolmaro, but if they don't trade down, I'm comfortable taking him at 27.
Re: Obi, lol. He's a skilled offensive player — great passer, awesome vertical spacer, great finisher — but he has major concerns defensively, and his 3-point volume is something to monitor going forward. Like, in theory, if the shot comes at a good rate from the outside, he's a fit on offense... but defensively... nope. But in that regard, the fit on defense is difficult for other teams unless he improves his lateral quickness and IQ, both of which are difficult to do.
Answering the last question with one word: yes.
On Tues, Aug 25, 2020 at 12:21 PM Jonathan Macri wrote:
Yeah that's what I figured you'd say all around. I think at this point, I've talked about this draft with you so much that we've mind-melded and when you have a thought, I have the same one, at the same time. Is there a DC character that has that power?
Actually on second thought, never mind.
