Heat 109, Knicks 103: Is Julius going for max now?
The Knicks couldn’t bring home a third straight win against the reigning Eastern Conference champions at home, but kept it close behind a masterful game from Julius Randle and an explosion from Reggie Bullock.
Fresh off of an encouraging victory against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Knicks took the floor for the second game of a back-to-back against the defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat. Though the Heat have gotten off to a slow start, Tom Thibodeau noted before the game that with Jimmy Butler healthy, they have once again looked much more formidable.
Despite heavy minutes played by the starters yesterday, the Knicks came out of the gates strong, contesting everything, preventing easy attempts at the rim, and cleaning up the offensive glass. On offense, Julius Randle did a good job finding teammates, most notably Reggie Bullock, who knocked down four 3-pointers in the first quarter and would finish with seven for the game. Miami aggressively trapped and doubled Knicks ball handlers all game, and in the first quarter the Knicks did a really good job swinging the ball and finding the open man.
However, Miami is loaded with shooters, and they would storm back to take a 3-point lead with a 16-3 run. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn got going from behind the arc, while Bam Adebayo began to show why he’s a lock for the All-Star game, driving to the rim, drawing fouls, and finding open shooters. Meanwhile, as Miami settled in on defense, presenting the Knicks with a unique defensive challenge they had not yet seen, the Knicks’ offense slowed down. Miami combines savvy veterans, quick, young guards, and an All-NBA defensive caliber center with excellent mobility, length, and athleticism to execute a fearsome scheme. Besides the trapping, Miami’s length also forced New York into many difficult finishes at the rim.
The Knicks would end of first quarter facing a 25-23 deficit. The pace of the game was fast all game and continued into the second quarter. Miami played more zone against the second unit, and Alec Burks and Austin Rivers were able to have success shooting from outside. However, when they were not getting open shots, both struggled against Miami’s aggressive ball pressure; Burks in particular had several very frustrating mishaps with the dribble. Obi Toppin hit a big three, and besides some hiccups dealing with ball pressure, the Knicks were able to keep pace by moving the ball and finding open shooters.
As the starters came back in, the scoring picked up as Julius Randle got hot from three. Clyde Frazier had noted earlier in the second that Randle had had only four points, though he had racked up six assists. Like a point guard who gets his teammates going first before taking on more scoring load with the floor opened up, Randle turned up the aggression. Whether it was pulling up from three or driving into Kelly Olynyk’s chest and popping up for what’s becoming an unstoppable baby jumper, Randle created problems for Miami’s defense. When they doubled, he would swing it; when they were scrambling, he would attack. When they would cheat, he would pinpoint the open man. Fantastic balance between scoring and playmaking in the first half.
The Heat got hot (ha!) too, though. The Knicks struggled to find shooters throughout the second quarter. Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala open threes are shots I’m sure the Knicks will live with, but Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro getting looks can’t happen. The Knicks went to the break down one point.
The defensive intensity notably improved in the second half. After consistently going under against Kendrick Nunn (not blaming Elf, this appeared to be the game plan and is reasonable against a subpar shooter), Elfrid Payton began fighting over screens and denying him the ball. RJ Barrett and Reggie Bullock chased Duncan Robinson and limited his space. The scoring slowed to a bit of a grind once again, but eventually the fatigue seemed to catch up a bit with the starters. Duncan Robinson got free to break a 69-69 (I had to guys, come on) tie with a three, and the Knicks’ offense began to struggle tremendously against the Miami zones and doubling.
When Julius Randle would try to post up, there were numerous possessions where the Heat could double him while not losing any one. Elfrid Payton was unable to find the mark from three, and his cuts to the basket without the ball were often futile as the Heat would be able to cover him and Mitchell Robinson with one defender. Payton also struggled to replicate his success over the past two games against Miami’s length, finishing 3-12 and missing a number of contested but make-able looks at the rim. Burks’ entry into the game would not help matters, as he was forced into another costly turnover.
The Heat opened up a 7-point lead and ended up going to the break up five. As the fourth quarter opened up, they continued to aggressively attack Burks, Rivers, and Immanuel Quickley. With the ball handlers being flustered and having the ball forced out of their hands, who would step up? Enter Obi Toppin! Toppin has struggled but seems to be adept at finding soft spots against the zone. There were several times were he looked to be wide open on the baseline and the Knicks missed him.
Nevertheless, he stepped up when his number was called and punished the Heat for leaving him open. First, he caught a crosscourt pass from Immanuel Quickley after an aggressive double team and defensive rotation and drove to the hoop for a layup against Andre Iguodala. A couple of possessions later, he would dribble under the hoop and throw down a ferocious slam as the Knicks caught the Heat trapping again.
Given Miami’s aggressive scheme, Quickley did not force the issue and was happy to take what the defense gave him. After getting beat a couple of times by Nunn, he bounced back defensively as well, forcing a turnover by surprising Nunn right after an inbounds pass (after a Toppin basket), contesting shots by Nunn and Herro, and holding up well under the basket until help could arrive.
The Knicks were able to tie the game with the second unit before Thibodeau brought the starters in. It’s tough to argue with going to Randle late, given that he is the Knicks’ best player and was having an excellent game today, but the downside is that you have to pull Obi even when he might be hot as he was today. Thibodeau will find a balance, but it is going to be a constant process.
Unfortunately, with the starters coming back in some of the offensive stagnation remained. Payton had a nice layup, but a vintage Jimmy Butler jump shot gave Miami the lead. A frustrating possession where Payton made an excellent pass to a wide-open Austin Rivers, only for him to pump fake, drive, and kick back to Payton, who missed a difficult reverse layup was emblematic of the struggles of the starting lineup on offense. Meanwhile, Adebayo hit an excellent turnaround jumper with the shot clock running down as the Heat opened up a 4-point lead. Tom Thibodeau called timeout and sent Quickley into the game after having replaced Rivers with Bullock earlier in the game. And it worked…for a possession!
After attacking a close out off of a swing pass from Burks, Quickley side stepped into the paint and threw a gorgeous alley-oop to Mitchell Robinson to cut the Heat lead to two. After Kelly Olynyk missed a 3-pointer, the Knicks had an opportunity to tie the game when Alec Burks nearly Kobe assisted Robinson on an ill-advised drive and forced shot. Mitch caught the ball right under the hoop but rushed the put-back and missed.
Mitch would then foul Kelly Olynyk after helping on Butler and being beat by a cut. Olyknyk would make the basket and complete the 3-point play. The Knicks answered with an Alec Burks three, but gave up a backbreaking foul on the next play. After 22 seconds of excellent defense by the Knicks, Tyler Herro got free for a floater and pump faked Mitchell Robinson into the air. Like watching Ricky get shot in slow motion in Boyz in the Hood, the helpless feeling of watching Herro exploit the move with a simple dump-off to Bam, who the Knicks were forced to foul, was excruciating. Bam would hit both free throws. After advancing the ball with a timeout, the Knicks were unable to inbound the ball (a pesky issue of late) and were forced to call a timeout. After setting up a Randle post-up against Butler and letting him play a two-man game with Burks, the Knicks were able to create a contested three for Randle in the corner, which he would miss.
On the ensuing possession, the Knicks would lose Herro at the 3-point line while trying to trap the ball and force a turnover, and that was all she wrote. This was a hotly contested second game of a back-to-back against a talented veteran team that made the Finals six months ago, and which utilizes a defensive scheme very difficult for the Knicks. That said, it felt winnable and is a bit of a letdown after two relatively convincing victories in the last two games.
Notes
Randle’s matchup with Adebayo took center (no pun intended) stage, and it didn’t disappoint. It’s difficult to overstate the strides he has made in every aspect of the game, but he did everything but sell hot dogs (and OK, fine, protect the rim). Randle had 26 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists against just three turnovers while facing a team that was constantly trapping and doubling him and featured an elite, versatile defensive center is an even better game than we’ve gotten accustomed to. Randle shot 10-18, and answered a call I’ve been making for him to shoot more threes. He finished 3-8 from three, which is slightly below the 40% mark he’s been shooting this season, but on double the volume. That will do, and helped him to shoot 7-10 inside the arc. While he did have one very bad turnover trying to force a cross-court pass, he did an excellent job of taking what the defense gave him. To the extent the starting lineup struggled to score against the Heat, it wasn’t on him. He also had a clutch steal on Bam late in the fourth, knocking the ball out of his hands in a triple-threat position and starting a fast break.
That said, has Randle ever made a technical free throw? I think he shoots a higher percentage from three than on techs!
For his part, Adebayo matched Randle’s performance, dropping 24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists (to just one turnover) on 10-17 shooting and using his mobility to plug holes and backstop the Heat’s swarming perimeter defenders. Bam’s growth has been incredible, and even with Butler back, the Miami offense clearly revolved around him. While Miami is often able to create space for him even without many shooters (they start Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn), they also regularly play him with Olynyk, Robinson, and Herro (in fact, this was how they closed the game). As the Knicks continue to jell on offense, Miami could be a model for how to construct a potent offense around a versatile big.
This might have been Bullock’s best game of the season on both ends. He finished 7-14 from three and feasted off of the open looks generated by Miami’s traps and double teams. One of the plays that encouraged me most was actually a miss: after a defender closed out on him in the corner, he pump-faked, and after taking a step in, stepped back to take a three. One of the frustrating things with Bullock is that he nearly always turns that into a long two; this change was a welcome sight, and the shot was halfway down. Bullock was also active all game on defense, finishing with four steals (including a big one late when he stepped into a passing lane and went coast to coast, missing a layup that was cleaned up by Burks), and chasing Robinson and Herro all game. Many have grumbled about his placement in the starting lineup, but the difference between him and Burks (who alternates good possessions with plenty of lapses) is notable. If he can continue to hit catch-and-shoot threes, he’s a good fit in the lineup.
Unfortunately, RJ had a rough game. Shooting 1-6 from the field for just three points in 19 minutes was bad, but Barrett was also uncharacteristically a step slow on defense. Whether it was a hand down, man down possession against Herro or losing Robinson on screens, he just didn’t have it today. This could be related to fatigue from long minutes yesterday, and I’m sure he’ll bounce back on Tuesday. Definitely seemed like an anomaly, given how he’s played the rest of the season.
For all the problems the Heat defense caused, the Knicks did shoot 16-42 from three and only turned the ball over 12 times. Unfortunately, they were just 22-43 from two, and while they had some stretches of really good offense, they had some inopportune cold stretches and were unable to keep up with Miami’s firepower.
OK. It’s time to discuss it. I understand people are tired of discussing the starting point guard position, but the struggles the Knicks had on offense cannot be ignored. Some of this is certainly due to Miami’s unusual defensive scheme; I expect the Knicks to adapt better after Thibodeau has a full 48 hours to put in some adjustments. But it’s impossible to ignore how much the lack of a spacing threat shrinks the floor for the Knicks on offense. The Knicks scored 23 points and 18 points in the first and third quarters while scoring 36 and 26 in the other two. In particular, the third quarter was very frustrating, as Miami was willing to let Payton fire away from three or let him cut to the rim, knowing that they already had defenders in position. To his credit, Elf remained aggressive and generated some decent looks for himself at the rim, but was unable to get them to fall. The Knicks like to post up Randle and kick out to open shooters when the other team doubles, but when other teams zone and pack the paint, it becomes tough to execute that. Elf has strengths as a player, but it’s difficult not to imagine a shooting threat being much more conducive to what the Knicks like to do with Randle. Now, Elf is certainly capable of driving if you use Randle as a stretch 4, but then you’re using Randle as a stretch 4 (in fairness, he has been a capable shooter, but turning him into glorified Brook Lopez is a waste of his talent) and you’re realistically getting less out of them than the sum of their talent.
Meanwhile, on the second unit, Burks and Rivers alternated some good scoring possessions with some horrendous turnovers and forced shots. With Quickley getting trapped and moving the ball, the two used numerous possessions, and made a number of poor decisions. Somehow, Burks finished with two turnovers, but it felt like Miami’s traps made him uncomfortable all game long and he struggled to see the floor at times after some beautiful playmaking in the last couple of games. That unit could have used someone who could penetrate, finish, and make good decisions while dominating the ball and keeping the rest of the team in line…like, say, Payton.
And that’s what this comes down to. With the different sections of the fan base often yell at each other about “Elf sucks!” (and I’ve been guilty of that), I’ll say something I’ve said a bunch: it’s not just about “IQ’s better.” It’s about optimizing lineups with the best skill sets. Whether you go by lineup data, basketball principles, or watching the games, the starting lineup already has a surplus of rim attacking with Julius and RJ (the Knicks came into the game sixth in frequency of shots taken at the rim). To the extent that number could go higher, creating more space for those two to drive is likely to move the needle a lot more than adding another ball-dominant rim-attacking player with a poor jump shot next to them. Similarly, when you have inconsistent decision-makers who can shoot in Rivers, Burks, and Toppin off the bench, you’d prefer to have someone who can dominate the ball and set them up consistently than someone who’s still learning certain nuances of the point guard position in Quickley. To his credit, Thibs did close the game with Quickley out there with Randle, but this felt like an adjustment that could have been made when the Knicks were putting up a 6-20 third quarter.
Rivers played better than he has in the last couple of games. Against Portland, he was benched after playing eight minutes, not returning in the second half. Whatever Thibs told him or he adjusted did have a positive effect, as Rivers drove aggressively early in the game, had a couple of nice passes on quick decisions, and even got to the foul line(!). Unfortunately, he mixed in some of the usual ball-stopping and made a crucial mental mistake late. Rivers is trying to balance looking for his shot and trying to be a creator and often gets the shoot/pass decision wrong. Moreover, he lacks vision, and for somebody who is a very capable slasher, he doesn’t get to the foul line nearly enough. With Derrick Rose coming to town, he is very much in danger of falling out of the rotation (you would think).
Quickley didn’t have a great game. He also didn’t have a bad game. He missed a couple of threes early (one an open corner look generated by… sigh… Randle, in a brief stint together) and against Miami’s defense, he mostly looked to find open shooters and take what the defense gave him. He seemed a little flustered in the early going, but looked very poised in the second half. Though he only scored five points, he also finished with three assists to 0 turnovers in 17 minutes and did a good job of beating the traps. He also didn’t force shots that weren’t there, and his maturity was impressive. This is why he was able to win Thibodeau’s trust to finish the game. It would have been nice to see more minutes for him earlier in the game, particularly with the starting lineup, but at least Thibs showed a willingness to adjust when it was clear Payton didn’t have it going. Progress.
That’s all I got. Overall, while it’s frustrating to see the offense struggle and waste a brilliant performance from Randle, it’s worth acknowledging that this is a talented, veteran Heat team that played a style of defense we are not used to. Despite a completely off game from their second-best offensive player, the Knicks had a chance to win it in the end. They get a chance to bounce back against this same Heat team on Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments Thibodeau makes. It’s unclear whether Rose will have joined the team and be ready for that game (my guess is no?) but that will be something else to monitor.
