Mitchell Robinson and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Contract
Chances are, you’re probably sick of the “trade Mitchell Robinson” conversation by now. Maybe you’ve read about his contract situation, you’ve listened to some podcasts, or seen enough tweets to make you want to scoop out your own eyeballs with a melon baller.
Well, before you permanently lose the ability of sight, I implore you to give me your undivided attention. I ask this especially because this isn’t going to be an article where I emphatically state that Mitch should be traded, or that he must remain under contract. No, the argument with how the Knicks can build a contender derives from examining the strategy towards building a winning team. Maybe you’re more focused on the upcoming draft or free agency, but internal long-term decisions? Now? No way. But alas, here we are.
I most recently wrote about how to build a contender for Knicks Film School in January. What’s changed since then? Oh, nothing much, just:
Steve Mills is out, Leon Rose and his new front office are in
Marcus Morris is out, a 2020 first round pick (via the Clippers) and a 2021 second round pick (via the Pistons) are in
Mike Miller is out, Tom Thibodeau is in
The draft lottery determined where the Knicks will pick this year (No. 8)
As a result, I figured it’s time for an updated article on the topic. And seeing as how we’re in this interminable offseason, we have to recognize that Mitchell Robinson’s next contract is rapidly approaching. He is the first major domino to fall for the Knicks in terms of who needs extensions (depending on your feelings on Damyean Dotson). Ready?
Buckle up, buckaroo.
Building the future
How can the Knicks build a winning team?
Short answer: They need to add at least one top-10 player.
Long answer: The dream is to build a sustainable team from the ground up like the Spurs, the Thunder, and the Warriors did. They represent turning sucks into success, with superstar talent that fans can truly call their own. These teams were built because of intelligent front offices and a healthy dose of luck, but also because of timing. Timing, as they say, is everything.
Dwyane Wade won a NBA title in his third year and Kobe Bryant won one in his fourth season. Stephen Curry didn’t win until his sixth year, Michael Jordan didn’t become a champion until his seventh season, LeBron James didn’t earn his first ring until his ninth year, and Kevin Durant wasn’t crowned a champ until his 10th season. Case in point? Unless you’re the Lakers getting Magic Johnson or the Spurs getting Tim Duncan, it generally takes a really long time for some of the game’s truly dominant players to win a title, if they do at all.
Of the players listed (excluding rookie champs Johnson and Duncan), only Wade and Bryant won their first title on the same team and under the same front office that drafted them. Front offices don’t have the kind of patience that fans do. How many times have we seen the Knicks make short-term moves because the front office didn’t care about the long term? Too many. Know why? Because they’re not the ones sifting through the debris and remnants of our torched house, looking for any trace of belongings that survived the wreckage, as everything around us smolders. They’ve moved onto the next gender reveal party, pyrotechnic device in hand, as the firefighters show up to help us. Except the firefighters have brought a flamethrower instead of a hose, and now we’re praying for rain to save us. And when the rain does come, it’s too acidic and poisons our only potable water supply.
New York does not have a player on the roster who currently projects to be an alpha. Perhaps RJ Barrett gets there one day — he is further along at 20 years old than some of the game’s best players were at his age — but he hasn’t shown us that quite yet. If history is any indicator (and it is), drafting an elite prospect to a bad team, developing him, and winning a title without landing a marquee free agent typically takes at least six years — if it happens at all. Becoming a contender takes around that long, give or take a year or two, depending on the prospect.
Rose was not brought in as President of Basketball Operations to stay patient for that long. A season? Sure. Two seasons? Could be. Three seasons? If you’re not showing an upward trajectory (note: upward trajectory ≠ title contention!) at the very least by this point, you better start packing your bags like the executives before you, Leon.
Maybe the Knicks can successfully build internally, but again, history tells us that teams also acquire some of their best players via free agency or trade. Drafting is hard! And even if you succeed at drafting, you can still sink your own battleship, like by signing Tobias Harris and Al Horford to huge contracts or by maxing Andrew Wiggins. Landing talented players in the draft is not enough. You have to build a cost-effective, complementary, and durable roster in order to contend.
There are maybe 10 players at a time who we can safely say are true game changers, and even then, that feels high. Put aside whether or not the Knicks signing a superstar is a pipe dream and ask yourself, what true superstar will even be available on the unrestricted free agent market?
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a free agent in 2021. That’s an especially clunky spacing fit as life stands now, although you know the roster would be picked apart to fit a star’s needs.
Anthony Davis is presumably a free agent in 2021 or 2022. He needs an elite facilitator and creator around him to truly shine. How are the Knicks acquiring that win-now player too?
Would you bet on Kawhi Leonard leaving LA? I certainly wouldn’t.
LeBron James will be almost 38 years old when his contract expires in 2022. Pass.
Stephen Curry will be 34 when he hits the open market in 2022. No thanks.
James Harden will be 33 once he’s a free agent in 2022. Not enough strip clubs in NY.
Joel Embiid isn’t a free agent until 2023, and his effort level in Philadelphia has long been a concern.
Nikola Jokic might be the best passing big we’ve ever seen. His defense is also abysmal, and Denver can likely offer him a supermax contract.
Damian Lillard won’t be a free agent until he’s 35 in 2025.
Luka Doncic won’t be an unrestricted free agent until 2026 or 2027.
Maybe one or two of these names shouldn’t belong here and maybe you would add others instead (I abstained from adding Kevin Durant due to injury, but don’t deny he can still be a top-10 player). Perhaps we see the stock of players like Jayson Tatum, Ben Simmons, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant, and Trae Young skyrocket in the next few years, but how many of those players are set to hit unrestricted free agency before 2024? Zero. The answer is zero.
We’ve discussed the draft and free agency, so let’s talk trade. For those who have given up on star chasing and understand the perils of the draft, what player are you trading for? What does said player cost, and why would the team trade him? The four best assets the Knicks have, in no particular order, are Robinson, Barrett, this year’s lottery pick, and their 2021 first round pick. If the Knicks want to look externally for a star, and if the trade market is the only available option, at least one to two of the assets listed have to go. The first asset fans would look to trade is this year’s lottery pick, which makes sense since, you know, it’s currently the lowest value of the four. Except you have to give to get, and the fact is that no team will trade a genuine star for a package headlined by the eighth overall pick in a draft generally deemed as weak. And if you don’t want to trade next year’s pick because the 2021 draft is expected to be deep, you’re picking between Robinson and Barrett getting the boot.
We have consistently seen big men be devalued as the years have passed. Not many teams build around big men anymore, let alone big men who aren’t elite. There will always be a need for good bigs, and basketball is susceptible to change, but what they were worth differs from what they’re worth now. Guards and wings can make it to the conference finals as the best player. Bigs, though, and non-shooting ones at that? How many well-paid, non-shooting, non-elite bigs have made it to the conference finals over the last 10 years? By my count it’s Tristan Thompson (x4), Jonas Valanciunas, Roy Hibbert (x2), Marc Gasol in Memphis (since he could shoot in Toronto), Amar’e Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler. So nine teams out of 40 had these starting bigs, with the latter four players accomplishing it in 2014 or earlier. Are the last five years a bit skewed because of the Warriors and Cavaliers? A little, perhaps, although I see it as those teams finding the winning formula and dominating because of it rather than them skewing the data.
Of the eight playoff teams that advanced this year, the most expensive non-shooting big man is Ivica Zubac, who is earning $6.48 million this year. The four teams with arguably the best shot at winning the title this year — the Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, and Heat — are each getting production from all their non-shooting bigs for less than $13 million combined. That, to me, is a fascinating blueprint.
The crux of this, though, isn’t solely that these teams aren’t paying non-shooting bigs much. It’s also the ability to go over the salary cap to re-sign them instead of dipping into cap space. There’s a healthier margin of error to overpay supporting pieces when you have your superstar in the building and you’re not using cap space to re-sign those players. The Heat are better off using Bam Adebayo’s low cap hold to sign another star than by paying him first and cutting into future spending.
What value is there, if any, to signing non-shooting big men to double-digit salaries, especially if you don’t have an alpha on your team? Here’s how it’s worked out since the 2014-2015 season:
Notice a trend? The green teams and all of the yellow teams except for one had at least one top-10 player. That one yellow team is the Utah Jazz, whose best player is (arguably) Rudy Gobert, a non-shooting big. Almost all of the red teams lacked a top-10 player
If you look at the red teams, a lot of the damage in signing these bigs was done because of the jump in salary cap in 2016. Teams still haven’t fully recovered from that summer, especially the Knicks, who unwisely stretched Joakim Noah’s salary until the 2022 offseason. The 2016 offseason was the last hurrah for rim protectors with no offensive perimeter game.
Here are the most expensive salaries for big men who signed contracts of at least three years and lack an outside shot since 2017:
Jordan has seen a noticeable decline and the success of his contract depends on the health of Durant and Kyrie Irving; Valanciunas and Capela were traded from contenders because of their inability to space the floor; the Blazers’ best playoff performance came when Nurkic was injured; Plumlee is a backup; Johnson was traded from a team that is now in the conference finals; Gasol was bought out due to injury; and Felicio… exists. History hasn’t been too kind to teams with these bigs.
Non-shooting big men who can protect the rim and defend in space will always be en vogue. The dilemmas are what the maximum amount they deserve is before they’re considered overpaid, and how much that impacts assembling a roster around said player. Recent history tells us the highest amount the best are fetching is around 15% of the salary cap, which could bode well for the Knicks with a certain big man. Yet the most expensive average salary went to the player who is the most similar to New York’s center of the future (Capela).
Mitch, please
This brings us back to Robinson, the very first long-term obstacle Rose’s Knicks will face. It’s important to delve into how the contract affects New York’s ability to land a truly elite wing or guard.
The affable big man is beloved by Knicks fans, especially given his status as a “hidden gem” found early in the second round. Robinson has taken 578 shots at the rim and 54 shots away from the rim in his career. He boasts a free throw percentage of 58.3%. He has not popped off of picks, does not screen well, cannot create for himself, does not facilitate, and has a penchant for getting into foul trouble. He struggles mightily with defensive rebounding, is a poor post-up defender, and lacks any sort of go-to move.
He is also an elite lob threat (a skill that helped him break a record set by Wilt Chamberlain himself), a phenomenal rebounder on the offensive glass, and one of the best shot blockers and rim protectors in the NBA, having rejected the second-most and ninth-most shots per game in the first two seasons, respectively, of his young career. He ranked seventh in points per possession in transition offense, albeit with three ball-handlers who ranked 333rd or worse out of 354 players. He is switchable and can use his lankiness to cover ground like few others can and block 3-pointers like few 7-footers have before.
Bringing in Kenny Payne to develop your big men and then trading Robinson before he has the chance to work with him is like commissioning Michelangelo to make a statue but then taking away the marble and chisel as soon as he arrives. We’re talking about someone with a 7-foot-4 wingspan who can significantly improve his team’s defense. And while Robinson’s post abilities need work, Anthony Davis arrived at the University of Kentucky without being able to do much there either. If Payne could open up Davis’ game, it’s easy to see how he could do the same for Robinson.
You may have noticed I brought up the T-word in the previous paragraph. Contrary to popular belief, the movement behind dealing Robinson isn’t because people think he’s bad. It’s a matter of determining opportunity cost and figuring out how you build around a raw player who has significant holes in his offensive game without already having an elite player in-house.
Here’s where I stand on all things Robinson:
Do I want Mitchell Robinson traded before next year? Not really.
Do I want the Knicks to use Robinson to move up in the draft? Only if the front office feels they’re getting a future superstar in return, and with this draft class, that seems unlikely.
Would I be open to the Knicks trading Robinson for a pick in the 2021 draft? Very much so.
Is there a point in which I would be willing to let Robinson walk for nothing? Unless he receives a remarkable offer sheet, no. He can be used as salary filler in a trade for star talent unless he’s massively overpaid and immovable.
Due to the unconventional nature of his contract situation as a second round pick, Robinson is likely eligible this offseason to receive a contract offer of $56-65 million over four years that would negate his fourth-year team option of just over $1.5 million in 2021-22. New York must ask itself, “What does Robinson need to be in order for us to feel comfortable handing him his next contract, and how does that affect our ability to land a superstar?” Robinson will be 23 when he gets paid and has plenty of potential, so doling out that type of contract may not be harmful in the long term. If you believe that the Knicks should build around Robinson and Barrett, here is what is on the horizon and what to ponder.
2020: Excess cap space, but no star free agents available (other than Anthony Davis). How much money will roll over to next year? Do the Knicks sign any veterans to multi-year deals? How is COVID affecting the salary cap? How good might the players drafted with this year’s draft picks be?
2021: A couple superstars (Antetokounmpo and Davis, if Davis goes the 1+1 year contract route until he can get a 10-year veteran 35% contract in 2022) could be on the market. Are one and/or two of them interested in joining the Knicks? How do Robinson and Barrett fit with Antetokounmpo (Robinson doesn’t)? Could any other stars be available via trade? How much will the Knicks pay Robinson? How much will the Knicks pay Frank Ntilikina, if at all? How much are your two first round picks making combined? What do their ceilings look like?
2022: At least one superstar (Davis) could be an unrestricted free agent. What do the Knicks look like? How much room do they have to sign players outside of a max slot? Could any stars be available via trade? Can the Knicks absorb that salary or do they need to send players back? Does that star mesh with the players on the roster or does he have a differing skill set? How much will the Knicks pay Kevin Knox, if at all? How much is your first round pick making? What does his ceiling look like?
2023: There’s one superstar (Embiid) who could be signed. How does he fit with Robinson (he doesn’t)? Can you even afford said superstar while having Robinson on the books, the combined salaries of your homegrown players and any free agents you’ve signed, and Barrett’s high cap hold of $32,701,905? Could any stars be available via trade again? How much are your two first round picks making combined? Might they become stars?
As you can see, if the vision by the front office is adding talent around Robinson and Barrett, salaries will increase and cap space dries up. With an uncertain salary cap, long-term spending is tough to gauge. You want the Knicks to get top draft picks? That means you’re paying more in rookie salary, which affects your spending power on the open market. Suddenly, your team has hit a spending wall in 2023 and the only drastic modifications you can make are by trade, which brings us back to the discussion of trading Robinson, only this time at a later date and on a bigger contract instead of while on his current, more trade-able deal in the near future.
Follow the leader
Let’s talk playoffs. “Playoffs? Are you kidding me? Playoffs?” Yes. You build a team going step by step, but you have to consider the short term and the long term. In the short term, paying Robinson would sting, but still be palatable. In the long term, it could be problematic.
More often than not, teams with expensive big men who don’t space the floor tend to suffer in the playoffs, if they even make it that far. What does “expensive” mean? In this case, it’s anyone earning an average annual salary of $15 million or more.
The teams with bigs making that much or more that have gotten by in the playoffs have done so for one of two reasons:
They are truly elite defensively
The big shares the floor with at least one elite, offensive guard/wing
Gobert’s name came up earlier. He also happens to be flanked by Donovan Mitchell, who, while not elite, is certainly coming into his own. Knicks fans would love to see New York draft a guard like “Spida” who positively impacts his team right away (what fanbase wouldn’t?), but that’s much easier said than done. Does a Gobert team without a potent first option on offense win a playoff series at any point over the last four years? In the competitive Western Conference, I seriously doubt it. If Robinson’s ceiling is below Gobert’s, and if the Knicks can’t figure out a way to assemble a supporting cast that’s better than Utah’s, New York will consistently suffer a similar fate.
The Rockets, for example, got away with having Clint Capela because he was on his rookie contract for much of his career in Houston and the Rockets had James Harden and later added Chris Paul. Capela then was paid, got injured, and Houston decided to double down on spacing and small ball by trading Capela.
Robinson being represented by Klutch, his fifth agency since declaring for the NBA Draft, is also of great importance. For whatever reason (cough CAA cough), Rich Paul has yet to infiltrate Madison Square Garden. Paul tried his best with Kevin Séraphin and Allonzo Trier, but that didn’t exactly work out too well for all parties involved. Rose knows how important relationships are, especially considering that Paul used to work for CAA before he started Klutch with LeBron James as his first client.
Paul is fantastic at what he does. There’s a reason why the NCAA tried to adjust its certification process to exclude agents who lacked a bachelor’s degree (AKA Paul), and it’s because of how he’s attracting prospects. Back when the status of this season was unknown, around 90% of NBA players had received less than half of their salaries by April 1, because the league operates on a 12-month payment plan. Yet a total of 20 players have “all-you-can-get” deals, which pay out 90-plus percent of their 2019-20 salaries by April 1. Of those 20, nine were represented by Klutch. Paul never planned for a pandemic, but he knows how to treat his clients.
I’m always going to be pro-player, but the mere thought of dealing with Paul gives me agita that even Pepto cannot relieve. My nightmare is that Paul will work his magic and put New York in an uncomfortable spot where Robinson signs a bloated offer sheet and the Knicks are in a Jeremy Lin situation. The two differences are Robinson wouldn’t be receiving a poison pill contract and is much better than Lin was. Even still, the Knicks risk losing Robinson for nothing or having a heavy contract on the books, perhaps one that comes with a trade kicker.
What’s more, if the Knicks change their mind next offseason about paying Robinson, they can’t trade him once he hits the market unless it’s in a sign-and-trade. Matching the contract and trading him later isn’t impossible, but it’s not as easy finding a partner. This is why the final decision on Robinson’s future with the Knicks should be made by the 2021 trade deadline at the latest.
Projecting Mitch’s next deal
What could Robinson receive for his talents? Consider that Klutch recently secured a deal for Dejounte Murray starting at $14.29 million next year. That’s not a bad deal at all for Murray, but would Robinson — who plays well in a large market — earn less than that, especially if he hits the open market? Capela isn’t repped by Klutch, but his first-year salary of his new contract was $13.79 million. There are two problems with comparing Capela with Robinson though, both of which do not favor the Knicks.
Capela was a free agent during the worst free agency in NBA history, as basically no teams had cap space. Houston had all of the leverage, because who was really going to give Capela an offer sheet? That will not be the case with Robinson. Some team with cap space could try to stick it to the Knicks by offering a bloated offer to Robinson, should it come to that.
The salary cap will likely be higher in 2021-22 than in 2018-19. Capela’s contract was 13.5 percent of the salary cap his first year. If the salary cap rebounds and increases to, say, $115 million, 13.5% of that is $15.57 million. Yet as a reminder, the depressed climate in 2018 suppressed Capela’s value, which would have been higher on the open market. So Paul and Robinson could see that as the absolute minimum, with it possibly costing more.
We have to consider the idea that Robinson’s current value is near its apex. That doesn’t mean he will never get better, because he should, in fact, continue to improve. Right now, Robinson is remarkably underrated because his contract is a small fraction of the salary cap. It seems almost impossible for him to play below the level of his current contract. Once you start making money though, that’s when expectations expand.
“You can pay Mitch and look to flip him later if need be.” You absolutely can. The problem that arises is finding a team that 1) has something you want in return and 2) needs a center like Mitch on a bigger contract. We saw the Hawks bite on Capela, so it wouldn’t be impossible to find a partner for Robinson, yet how many teams were seriously interested in him? Again, it only takes one. But as Tim Robinson (likely no relation) would say, “It needs to be quality on my end, otherwise no fuckin’ deal.”
Robinson does not become un-trade-able unless he’s ridiculously overpaid or injured, but the looming point still stands: It would be easier to deal him on a cheap contract than an expensive one. Trading Robinson while on his rookie deal to a team that has its best players in-house already and can afford to go over the cap to re-sign Robinson like the Warriors and Wizards makes the most sense. If the front office believes a trade is inevitable, dealing Robinson while he’s outperforming his current contract could make much more sense than trading him on his next deal.
The verdict
Brock [Aller] can rank the… value of every piece of paper in the NBA [in order],” [Pelicans President of Basketball Operations David] Griffin said. “Not in terms of how good a player they are, but in terms of how useful their contract is. He will make sure that if he has anything to say about it, every deal your organization signs has a level of optionality that some teams don’t think of. That’s the benefit of him. You’re not going to do better than him in terms of contract structure.
This quote from an article in The Athletic, written by Mike Vorkunov, has stuck with me. Aller was not the head honcho with the Cavaliers, but Cleveland extended players on value deals because they could be more useful as trade chips than hitting the open market and being lost for potentially nothing. It’s why Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., and Cedi Osman never hit free agency post-LeBron James. While the 2021 trade deadline is unofficially the last time to deal Robinson, New York will probably make up its mind after he likely rejects the contract offer this offseason. Guaranteeing his fourth year so he loses out on millions of dollars is shrewd, but would greatly piss off Robinson and Klutch.
Above all, the Knicks need to collect talent. Eventually, though, that talent has to mesh. How are you going to add top-tier talent to a team with Robinson on a bigger contract? This conversation should be more about how much Robinson on his next contract is worth to the Knicks and the NBA as a whole, and less about how much he’s worth in a vacuum. In a vacuum, he’s worth the investment. On a great team, you can overpay. On a terrible team, every penny counts.
I would like to think there’s a happy medium for Robinson and the Knicks. Capela’s value has taken a hit, and while that shouldn’t affect Robinson, it might, because they share the same archetype. Perhaps New York and Robinson can agree to a contract that descends in some way. Maybe it’s structured like Jordan and Felicio’s deal, where it would go up in 2022 but go down in 2023 and then down again in 2024. Should the Knicks land two star free agents in 2021 with Robinson a restricted free agent, they can go over the cap to re-sign him. Should the Knicks not land anyone in 2021 and choose to re-sign Robinson, they might as well pay more in year one and keep their cap open later, especially as the salary cap hopefully increases in the next couple years.
Rim runners are fairly replaceable and can be found later in the draft. After all, Jarrett Allen was drafted 22nd overall, Clint Capela 25th, Rudy Gobert 27th, Robert Williams 27th, Festus Ezeli 30th, Ivica Zubac 32nd, Montrezl Harrell 32nd, Hassan Whiteside 33rd, DeAndre Jordan 35th, and Mitchell Robinson 36th. Am I equating Festus Ezeli to Mitchell Robinson? Obviously not, and while good, non-shooting bigs don’t grow on trees, there’s a reason why so many are found two-thirds of the way through the draft: They are easily replaceable. They are a shimmering ornament on the Christmas tree; not the foundational tree stand, nor the tree itself, nor the star, either.
This is why Robinson would have more value on a team that goes over the cap to re-sign him versus a team that pays him out of cap space. You’re playing with house money if you have your well-paid, successful nucleus already and then re-sign Robinson to a large deal. If you don’t have that core but wish to re-sign Robinson to that same amount, you’re playing with your own money. You can still hit the jackpot with your own money, but at the end of the day, the house always wins.
Trading Robinson may feel like kicking the can down the road, but we have to consider how it affects the rest of the team’s roster construction. Plus, if the asset Robinson brings back either becomes or already is a star wing or guard, you’re not damaging your future here. If anything, you’re raising your ceiling. The same can also be applied to keeping Robinson long term and later using him as matching salary to acquire a star guard or wing on a bigger contract, though that comes with a greater risk. Hopefully, for everyone’s sake, there’s no need to deal Robinson, because it means he will have maxed out his potential and has become a truly elite, two-way player. The window for the Knicks to determine that is briefer than we may think, though.
