2021-22 Knicks Season Preview: Nerlens Noel
Signed as a backup and thrust by necessity into the role of starter, Nerlens Noel was a key component in the Knicks’ sudden rise to the No. 4 seed in the East last year. What will Noel do this season to build on last year’s campaign and justify his shiny new contract?
Last year the Knicks made the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Then, as now, they fell to a team whose center badly outplayed their own. In ‘13, it was Roy Hibbert bossing Tyson Chandler. Last season, Clint Capela played the sand-kicking bully to Nerlens Noel’s 98-pound weakling. After a final disappointing season in New York, Chandler was traded to Dallas. This time around, Noel isn’t even the Knicks’ likely starting center. But you can bet they’re praying history doesn’t repeat itself. For a whole host of reasons, the Knicks’ short- and long-term success could very well be shaped by a guy who made less money last year than Frank Ntilikina, Elfrid Payton, and Joakim Noah.
One could be tempted to diminish Noel’s impact last year. That happens with players whose skills tend toward the extremes: they’re as easy to overrate as underrate. From the time Mitchell Robinson first went down with a fractured hand, the 12-15 Knicks went 29-16 the rest of the way, with Noel manning the middle. His run as a starter dovetails almost exactly with the Knicks acquiring Derrick Rose, who played so magnificently after the trade he earned a first-place MVP vote. But anyone watching the team saw Noel’s impact on winning, particularly on the defensive end, was as meaningful — and spectacular — as anything Rose did.
Oops. That last clip is from his time in Oklahoma City. How’d that get in there?
Anyway, the highlights speak the same language as the numbers: give Noel a narrow role that suits his abilities and he’ll excel. Look at his per-36 numbers last year: he had the most blocks of his career (3.3) and his fouls fell for the second year in a row; he also took the fewest field goals and free throw attempts of his career, tied his career-low in rebounds, had the lowest assist percentage of his career, and the highest turnover rate. That sounds like a letdown, except it was by design, I suspect — good teams don’t want poor shooters or decision-makers shooting or making decisions. Noel’s hands are so bad he struggles catching passes from himself.
Playing alongside Julius Randle, who led the Knicks in rebounding, likely lessened Noel’s opps on the glass. Still, at $5 million last year, he was undoubtedly one of the Knicks’ most pleasant surprises, and along with Mitch and Taj Gibson gave New York incredible production from the pivot for the combined price of a hair under $10 million. Noel’s offseason pay raise pays him nearly that much by himself — a great price for a starting center, a bit exorbitant for a fairly one-dimensional back-up. So what gives?
If the Knicks look to swing a big deal this year, Noel could prove essential, whether they move him or keep him. Robinson makes less than $2 million this year and is an unrestricted free agent next summer. He’s coming off fractures to his hand and, more importantly, his foot. If there’s a team out there who sees Robinson as a building block worth $15-$20 million, Noel makes it a helluva lot easier to walk away from the tantalizing talents of Mitch. If a trade offer arises and either the other team has no interest in extending Mitch and/or the Knicks are impressed enough by his play to wanna keep him, then Noel is a reasonably-priced known quality who automatically raises a team’s defensive floor and ceiling.
It’s a bit curious that the Knicks have extended Noel and given Taj Gibson a two-year deal before settling on their future plans with Robinson; at the very least, you can bet it’s curious to someone on his sixth agent in three years. If the Knicks go through the season with their current three-man center rotation, Noel stands tall as one of the top backup bigs in the Association; should the Knicks find themselves in a play-in or playoff matchup with Indiana or a rematch with Atlanta, he’d likely fare better in a more limited role than he did as the starter last year, scoring just five baskets in five games and dishing just one assist. Capela dominated so utterly, the Knicks ended up playing Taj nearly ten more minutes a game than Noel. Unless you’re Dennis Rodman, it’s hard to win in the playoffs with such a non-threat on offense.
In all honestly, Noel has yet to prove himself as a legit postseason performer. In 17 career playoff games with the Knicks and Thunder, he’s scored double-figures once, never had 10+ rebounds, never blocked more than two shots, and never played as many as 24 minutes in a game. His only two starts were the first two games of the Atlanta series, after which he came off the bench. On the plus side, it does sound like Noel has been expanding his offensive arsenal beyond dunks, put-backs, and the decent but little-used short-range jumper he flashed at times.
The Knicks could finish anywhere from the No. 4 seed to the play-in tournament if they’re reasonably healthy, below that if they’re not. The team you see opening night vs. Boston could be pretty much the one you see come game 82 and beyond, or a trade no one sees coming may lead Leon Rose and Co. to make a deal sooner than later. Nerlens Noel could be the Knicks’ center of the future or shipped off as ballast in a big move. He could reprise his role as an elite backup big or try his hand as the starter once more. If he stays, may he build upon the success of his first year in New York, and if he’s traded, may he bring back a better return than José Calderón.
