Pacers 109, Knicks 100: The sky is not falling
The Knicks put up their first stinker of the preseason, blowing the game late to the Pacers on the road. But did the positives ultimately outweigh the negatives?
Well, it was fun while it lasted.
The Knicks lost a preseason game for the first time in almost two calendar years, and, if social media is any indication, we may as well put a bow on the season. Luckily, social media is not (yet) reality. The Knicks’ season is not over. On the contrary, it has not even begun. Does that mean this game was irrelevant? Of course not. But what can we take away from this game that may carry over to the regular season? Let’s dive in.
The starters
You want a trend? Through three preseason games all five Knicks starters have had a positive +/- in every one of them. We have covered head coach Tom Thibodeau’s rotations to a nauseating degree, but if you missed it the first 37 times, here are the cliff notes: his starters are going to play a lot. Some people (incorrectly), including sometimes Thibodeau himself, argue that who starts is less important than who finishes. While that premise is kind of silly in general (as far as I know, points count the same in the first and fourth quarters), it is especially ludicrous on a Thibodeau team because of how he weights his minutes. He doesn’t typically substitute for the first time until the four or five minute mark of the first and third quarters. Even if he has to call multiple frustrated timeouts early on, changes rarely occur. Starters fall into minutes regardless of their level of play.
While some remain hopeful that Thibs the Tiger may change his stripes, it may be more reasonable to hope for the next best thing; maybe the Knicks just run a respectable starting lineup? As most know, this has not been the case in Years 1 and 2 of the Thibodeau era, making his rotation quirks more frustrating. But there is reason to believe this year may be different, and it starts with one man — Jalen Brunson.
Brunson did not have his best game last night. In fact, he probably had his worst one yet in a Knicks uniform. Nevertheless, the Brunson signing is showing early and obvious returns for a starting lineup that desperately needed a bolt. It’s easy to wax poetic and speak in cliches or intangibles. Maybe talk about how with Brunson at the helm, roles are more defined. But it is actually a lot simpler than that. The truth of the matter is that Jalen Brunson is just a really freaking good basketball player.
Standing next to him this entire brief preseason has been still-only-22-despite-entering-Year-4 RJ Barrett, who is the next biggest reason for optimism. Barrett continues to shine playing off both Brunson and Julius Randle (more on him in a bit) in a way that feels refreshingly organic. There has been no dip in Barrett’s usage volume or role in the offense. If anything, it has been amplified. It is tough to say this confidently, but it certainly feels like he is being much more effective with his touches. Because of the attention Brunson gets, Barrett is getting the ball in more advantageous positions and making the most of it. Most importantly, it looks like a leap is coming from the midrange. As I mentioned a few days ago, Barrett has been woeful from 5-15 feet. For him to reach his absolute ceiling, being a three-level scorer is non-negotiable. Last night Barrett scored 21 points (in just 27 minutes) on 50% shooting. That’s great, we’ve seen it before. What we haven’t seen before? He did that despite being just 1-5 from three. Barrett made his twos at a 67% efficiency. Obviously it’s just a single game, but when you watch him play, a comfort and confidence is apparent that hasn’t been in the past.
Which brings us to Randle. For the second straight preseason he is certainly saying all of the right things. He’s talked about how much easier it is to lead when things are going well than when the shit is hitting the fan. After last night’s game he discussed studying Euro-ball and trying to learn from it. For those who don’t know, in Europe there is a much bigger emphasis on man and ball movement, something Knick fans have been clamoring for from Julius. Last night felt like a step in the right direction. With Randle, the process has always mattered far more than the results. As Thibodeau always says, you don’t have to shoot well to impact the game. I think most Knick fans would sign up for walking away from each game thinking, “I don’t care if Randle’s shots went in or not, I really liked how he played tonight.”
Last night was one of those nights. Randle wasn’t perfect, but perfect is not a reasonable bar. But the energy was there both on defense and the glass, he was a willing screener — even making a beautiful pass on the short roll to a waiting Mitchell Robinson in the dunker’s spot — and, after an early hesitation, he caught and shot his open threes with confidence. We’re past the need for Randle to grind the pace to a halt so he can “go to work.” The Knicks need pace, energy, and quick decisions. They need sacrifice. And they got that last night from Randle. But will they get it on a tougher night? Maybe one where the shots are not falling or amidst a losing streak? Only time will tell.
Lastly, I want to highlight Mitchell Robinson, who was an absolute terror on both ends last night. Robinson has one of the most thankless jobs in the NBA. He very rarely gets to touch the ball unless he grabs a rebound. His rebounding numbers look worse than his actual impact because teammates snag them as he does the dirty work boxing out opponents. His value is not, nor will it ever be, measured in counting stats. Yet while analytics have always loved him, I’ve actually always thought they slightly overstated his impact. To me, there has often been something missing. Whatever it was, it appears it’s there now, as Robinson seems as locked in as he ever has been. Matching up against Myles Turner, who has been a part of all sorts of trade rumors (including to the Knicks for Robinson at times), it was as if the matchup was personal to him. Robinson was everywhere on both ends, racking up six offensive rebounds and four blocks in just 23 minutes. If Thibodeau is indeed dead set on starting Evan Fournier next to Brunson, Robinson is as important as he has ever been, because he is the last (and only) line of defense at the rim.
Speaking of Fournier, he was largely mediocre last night. It really is too bad sophomore Quentin Grimes is struggling with an injury, because it seems to be so much more a matter of “when” rather than “if” Fournier is pulled from the starting lineup. Fournier is a fine player, but he just doesn’t fit, and I don’t see how that changes. Brunson and Barrett immediately got a boost when Fournier was replaced by Immanuel Quickley, who would be a much better fit between the two in the starting lineup. But, for now, Fournier remains tied to the starting lineup, for better or worse.
The bench
Which brings me to Quickley — he was horrendous last night. It was one of the most selfish performances I have seen from him in his two years as a Knick. Should we write him off? Cap his ceiling? I think you know the answer to that. After all, it was just a preseason game. And as funny as it is to see people who said a month of regular season play didn’t matter now use one preseason game to confirm their preconceived notions, I think it’s worth noting that some negative trends did emerge. Quickley had trouble in the pick-and-roll with Hartenstein because the Pacers basically invited him into the paint and had their off-ball defenders stay home. They made a bet that Quickley could not consistently beat their big man one-and-one and, at least last night, they were right.
Of course, there are fixes to this. For starters, Thibodeau could spice up his playbook. I’m skeptical that spamming single 1-5 pick-and-roll is an effective playbook. Credit to him, in the second half he started running the ball through Hartenstein at the top of the key and playing to his biggest strengths; his court vision and passing. Another solution would be using a more dangerous weapon, in this case Obi Toppin, as the screener more of the time. Finally, the Knicks could have their screener screen higher. Quickley’s most successful possession in the pick-and-roll last night came when Hartenstein set his screen a few feet above the arc, allowing Quickley to walk into a pull-up 3-pointer.
Hartenstein was probably the most promising player off the bench last night. It really felt like they found something with him in the second half that hadn’t yet popped. As Hartenstein surveyed the floor at the top of the key, the other four players moved, screened, and cut, until Hartenstein was able to find one of them. This can’t be the offense each time down the floor, but Hartenstein was an extremely effective player in Los Angeles last season. And for good reason. Constructing a scheme that emphasizes his strengths is a much more effective strategy than hoping he plays a style that is completely foreign to him.
Toppin and Deuce McBride were their normal selves. McBride is a limited offensive player, mostly reliant on catching the ball versus a scrambling defense and either shooting or attacking. But his defense is exquisite and an absolute joy to watch. Sometimes he doesn’t catch your eye for a few possessions and you’re reminded that he, similar to Darrelle Revis for the Jets back in the day, has the ability to shut an opposing player out of the game. His ability to use his size and quickness to not only get into the body of his assignment, but also navigate screens unlike any other player I’ve seen. And Toppin is making a habit out of making the supernatural look normal. Like Barrett, he continues to show strides that feel sustainable. He made a play off the bounce that ended with him getting rim pressure, resulting in a dunk. With Thibodeau’s tendency to have the center screen for the ball, it is easy to see Toppin get frozen out of the offense for short spans. Let’s hope he has simply gotten too good to ignore.
Last and, probably, least, Cam Reddish was horrendous last night. He and Quickley combined to shoot 7-28, good for 25% from the field. Unlike Quickley, Cam does not have two years of good will built up with his team to the point where one game won’t change anything. These last few games have been a direct audition for Reddish, and he is striking out big time. As I mentioned earlier, the shots falling or not should matter. Thibodeau liking the way Reddish has played was always what was going to make or break his standing in the eyes of the old coach. The talent, the skillset, and the body are all tantalizing, but if Reddish wants to break his way into the Knicks rotation, he is going to have to show more on both ends.
Coming up
The Knicks get Washington Friday night for their final preseason game. Will Thibodeau branch out his lineup construction a bit more and experiment to see who plays together and who doesn’t? Will Quickley break out of his one-game shooting slump? Will Brunson and Barrett continue to be the team’s 1A and 1B? Will Randle’s evolution into a Euro-ball copycat continue? These are just a few of the questions that the Knicks can lay bread crumbs for Friday night. Because, no, the sky is not falling. That doesn’t happen in the preseason. But, like the dragons in Game of Thrones, it can leave a small trail of red smoke in the sky to indicate what may be coming.
