Pencils down. Final thoughts.

Consider this both a final big board & a mini-draft guide of sorts. I have concluded the pyramid/spreadsheet format I have used before is actually not as helpful this year, because this draft’s “shape’’ is odd. Most drafts have fewer players in every higher tier, because those players are more rare, but a reasonable increase in players from tier to tier. This class has empty top tiers, tiny middle ones, and a gigantic third group. It would be less a pyramid and more the shape of a funky wine decanter or something.

So for my final board of 2024, we’re going old school. A few tiers, with sub-tiers. Players in each sub tier are interchangeable, but listed in a gun-to-my-head preference with gun-to-my-head-numerical ranks, without regard for team fit or developmental context. So for example, I wouldn’t mind putting Clingan over Sarr, but usually wouldn’t put either of them over Reed Sheppard, the first player in the next sub tier.

I am keeping the “time machine,’’ though, a.k.a. examples of past prospects in tiers for comparison. For the uninitiated, the examples of past prospects in categories are where I, Prez, ranked those guys at the time. Not mainstream boards – though sometimes there is overlap. For example most mainstream boards didn’t have Luka Dončić as a generational talent or Chet Holmgren as an instant franchise player, whereas I did. Conversely, mainstream boards had Paolo Banchero as an instant franchise player. I did not – hey, nobody’s perfect! 

If you want sales pitches for and against, plus important stats, check out The Strickland draft profiles I helped with: part 1, 2 and 3. This document creates a final big board and puts pen to paper on some final thoughts.

Tier rankings

Tier Ω (Generational talents)

N/A

Tier S (Projected instant franchise player)

N/A

Tier A (Improbable franchise cornerstones; likely high-end, high-impact rotation players)

1. Alex Sarr, PF/C, Perth (NBL)

2. Donovan Clingan, C, UConn

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3. Reed Sheppard, G, Kentucky

4. Ron Holland, Wing, GL Ignite

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5. Matas Buzelis, F, GL Ignite

6. Nikola Topić, PG, Red Star (Serbia)

7. Rob Dillingham, G, Kentucky 

8. Zacharrie Risacher, Wing, JL Bourg (France)

Tier B (High ceiling with rare talent/skill/physical combos, but lower floors)

9. Isaiah Collier, PG, USC

10. Kyle Filipowski, PF/C, Duke

11. Tyler Smith, PF, GL Ignite

12. Devin Carter, G, Providence

13. Terrence Shannon Jr., Guard/Wing, Illinois

14. Zach Edey, C, Purdue

Tier C (Good rotational bets — could be starter/could be solid off bench/could be mid journeymen/could stink)

15. Bub Carrington, G, Pittsburgh

16. Dalton Knecht, Wing, Tennessee 

17. Ajay Mitchell, G, UCSB

18. Cody Williams, Wing, Colorado

19. Stephon Castle, Guard/Wing, UConn

20. Melvin Ajinça, Wing, San Quentin (France)

21. Kelel Ware, C, Indiana

22. Jaylen Wells, Guard/Wing, Washington State

23. Isaiah Crawford, Wing, Louisiana Tech

24. Adem Bona, C, UCLA

25. Tristan Da Silva, Wing, Colorado

26. Daron Holmes, C, Dayton

27. Nikola Djurisic, Guard/Wing, KK Mega (Serbia)

28. Jared McCain, G, Duke

29. Baylor Scheierman, Wing, Creighton

30. Yves Missi, C, Baylor

31. Johnny Furphy, Wing, Kansas

32. Jakobe Walter, G, Baylor

33. Pacome Dadiet, Wing, Ulm (Germany)

34. Tidjane Salaun, F, Cholet (France)

Bubble Tier (Just outside first-rounder quality)

35. Jaylon Tyson, Wing, California

36. Jon Mogbo, C/PF, San Francisco

37. Kevin McCullar Jr, Wing, Kansas

38. KJ Simpson

39. Tyler Kolek

40. Ryan Dunn

41. Kyshawn George

42. Justin Edwards

43. Ulrich Chomche

44. Enrique Freeman

45. Jamal Shead

46. Pelle Larsson

47. Cam Spencer

Rankings with thoughts, questions and tier comparisons

Tier Ω 

Past examples:  Victor Wembanyama, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Luka Dončić

N/A for 2024

Tier S

Past examples:  Deandre Ayton, Cade Cunningham, LaMelo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr.

N/A for 2024

Tier A

Past examples:  Brandon Miller, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Anthony Edwards, Killian Hayes (!), Josh Giddey, RJ Barrett, Moses Mody, AJ Griffin, Tari Eason, Franz Wagner, Scottie Barnes, Mikal Bridges, Desmond Bane

1. Alex Sarr

• I still think his scoring upside is underrated despite him exclusively shooting a pretty inefficient shot diet for a 7-foot-1 phenom with movement skills. Reminds me of Evan Mobley if he weren’t a defensive savant. Hater-ish as that sounds, still good enough for 1A/1B in 2024, and his potential scoring ceiling gives him the tiebreaker over Clingan.

2. Donovan Clingan

• Have had him in the top three since long before he was mocked top three. Connecticut didn’t even utilize his roll-man skills or dribble handoff hub skills much, and he’s not even strong for his size . . . yet.

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3. Reed Sheppard

• I do think he can be a true blue primary ball-handler and initiator in time, not unlike the development made by Immanuel Quickley. Very good athlete downhill, and I buy his ability to create separation, use screencraft and retain defensive value through off-ball skills. 

4. Ron Holland

• I started off the cycle as a hater but his downhill explosiveness won me out. Has moves but needs to tighten up his handle and his shot. I think he does both. 

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5. Matas Buzelis

• Here as a defense-first prospect.

6. Nikola Topić

• I am worried about having him this high because of the mix of injury, shaky defense and shaky shooting. The downhill stuff is special, though, and the things he’s great at (accelerating; finishing with touch; live dribble passing) all complement each other. 

7. Rob Dillingham

• To return top-5 to top-10ish value as a super short king, you have to be either near Trae level on offense or inexplicably solid on defense like Mike Conley. Not sure Dillingham can do either. Would not blame general managers for fading him, but at some point perfect becomes the enemy of great.

8. Zacharrie Risacher

• Have come around on Risacher because I think his defense can work very well, if a team uses him to guard down, e.g. like Philadelphia used Nic Batum and Kelly Oubre on Jalen Brunson, instead of guarding players of similar height. Important developmental context variable. Also needs, ideally, a place where he can get his 3s/100 up to double digits ASAP. 

Tier B

Past examples: Dereck Lively Jr., Anthony Black, Wendell Carter Jr., Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Patrick Willams, Tyrese Maxey, Devin Vassell, Cam Johnson, Keegan Murray, Jalen Duren, Bennedict Mathurin, Shaedon Sharpe, Gorgui Dieng

9. Isaiah Collier

• I think the real Collier is the guy who shot 38% from three and scored 17 points per game in 11 games after returning from injuries. 

10. Kyle Filipowski

• I have Flip high not just because of his varied skillset, but because I think his defense at the 4 and 5 is genuinely underrated – he’ll be able to win with quick hands, strength and positioning as an impact rotational big. Also think he’s better at shooting than his three-point percentage indicates, as he shot poorly on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes and well on guarded ones; usually that’s small sample noise, and would drag his accuracy down a few points. If he shot 38% instead of 35% from deep, nobody is mocking him at the end of the first.

11. Tyler Smith

12. Devin Carter

13. Terrence Shannon Jr.

• He’s ranked highly because I think he’s really good on both ends of the floor. The worst part about his trial is that the worst people on earth who pretend sexual assault isn’t absolutely rampant everywhere and especially on campuses will use him as a vindication for their absurd, backwards amoralist views. Judging from the case it seems like he was very likely in the clear, I just hate that so many awful humans are now going to weaponize the trial to generally make things much worse for women. 

14.  Zach Edey

• This is my coward’s compromise ranking. I used to think he wasn’t a first rounder because generally I am completely out on poor defensive pick-and-roll centers and I think his PnR defense currently sucks. That being said, his offensive game is more than NBA-ready and I can’t see it not working well. If the defense can get to passable, he probably has the highest upside in the class.

Tier C

Past examples: Anfernee Simons, Corey Kispert, Davion Mitchell, Deni Avdija, Sekou Doumbouya, Naz Little, Immanuel Quickley,Isaiah Joe, Kessler Edwards, Malachi Flynn, Zeke Nnaji, Leandro Bolmaro, Ty Terry, Day’Ron Sharpe, Rokas Jokubaitis, Isaiah Livers, Ayo Dosunmu, Christian Braun, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, Precious Achiuwa, Jake LaRavia, Nikola Jović, Vince Williams Jr.

This huge-ass group from 13 to 37 are the remaining players I consider first-rounders. Yes, despite this being a weak draft I consider the end of the first round very deep with possible rotation players – a.k.a. first-rounders. Paradoxically, the draft isn’t weak because of these guys, but because it lacks elite top-end talent. That distinction matters.

15. Bub Carrington

• I did a two-and-a-half hour pod with Chuck of the Chucking Darts draft pod that completely moved me on Bub. He is not without flaws, but a big shooting self-creating point guard is a worthwhile bet. Being in the 90th percentile in the country as a PnR player – including passes, per Synergy – is an incredible stat for an 18-year-old.

16. Dalton Knecht

17. Ajay Mitchell

• Haven’t sold any Ajay stock. The mix of his ankle injuries and high usage lead me to think he has more athletic pop and defensive intensity in the tank, and I’m not worried at all about increasing his 3-point volume. 

18. Cody Williams

19. Stephon Castle

• If he can really be a guard, with ball skills and gravity, this rank will look dumb.

20. Melvin Ajinça

• I get the concerns about non-3-point offense, but he’s the best perimeter defender in the class, an elite shooter and 6-foot-8. And has closeout counters from three. 

21. Kel’el Ware

22. Jaylen Wells

• After adjusting to the physicality of D-I hoops for a month, he was pretty elite. Though he doesn’t have the most stellar athletic tools on either end, he’s incredibly self-aware of how to maximize what he has tools on both. Super-smart player; I think I may look back on this and find it way too low.

(For what it’s worth, the above group from 13-21 is easily the hardest tier to sort)

23. Isaiah Crawford

24. Adem Bona

• Overextended on offense at UCLA. Asked to play the 4 as well. Stupid. Can basic dribble-drive with strength to make buckets happen. Elite functional athlete whose stock is suffering because he’s a victim of the stretch-5 industrial complex.

25. Tristan Da Silva

• I came around on him despite his lack of physicality on defense and the glass because he was much quicker than I assumed. If a team lets him guard down rather than up, they can get a ready-made playoff rotation guy sooner rather than later.

26. DaRon Holmes

• I don’t buy him being good enough on defense. And I don't think he’ll get to bring the ball up, run PnR and do all that Mickey Mouse NCAA shit he did at Dayton. But he’s still got talent and athleticism.

27. Nikola Đurišić 

• His best skills are his passing and drawing fouls, but I don't know if he’ll be threatening enough on offense to leverage those. If he can, I'll have been too low on him.

28. Jared McCain

• Great shooter and underrated ballhandler I think he can be a legit, impact third guard. Just don’t ever see the defense being adequate – that being said, there’s a strong argument he and Dillingham shouldn’t be 20 spots apart.

29. Baylor Scheierman

• Great college player, but small margins on defense and sub-elite Kispert/Sam Hauser/Cam Johnson-level shooting make me wonder if the idea is better than the reality. Definitely worth a bet from a playoff team.

30. Yves Missi

31. Johnny Furphy

• Wing size is good. Shooting versatility really lacking for someone without plus-plus athleticism or dribbling skills, though. Think people are projecting athleticism, handle development and shot versatility development onto him too generously.

32. Ja’Kobe Walter

• He’s this low because even if this defense is OK, the shooting is not elite. 

33. Pacome Dadiet

34. Tidjane Salaun

• Motor and size are good. Everything else is theoretical, even for an 18 year old. Hype train went way off the rails IMO

Bubble Tier

This section could be longer, but this is the list of second-round-y guys I care about. You could have a first-roundish grade on any of them and I wouldn’t complain too much – if a team likes their effort, personality, work ethic, etc., they could totally be worth late first-round picks. They are not without real gifts.

35. Jaylon Tyson

• Used to have him near lotto, but everytime I re-watched his defense my God. It is so, so, so bad. 

36. Jon Mogbo

• Has some amazing gifts, but to realize them in the NBA he either needs to both shoot well and be able to defend 4s and wings, since he won’t be a center. He may well do one, but hasn’t shown he can do either, and assuming he does either, much less both, is too long a leap for me.

37. Kevin McCullar Jr.

• A prospect with small margins due to age before, then injury dropped him down further. I don’t buy the shot and I think his defense went from elite to ‘’just good’’ as a senior. I worry he can’t get back to elite due to increased size/mass.

38. KJ Simpson

• Similar to McCain and Tyler Kolek in terms of monster production, with a more well-rounded offense due to some real hops. I still faded him because I don’t see how he retains defensive value, ever, at 6-foot-1. 

39. Tyler Kolek

• Many on the internets love Kolek. He’s immensely productive, but he’s also 23, 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-3 wingspan and has yet to show proficiency shooting pull-ups. To me, those red flags outweigh his green ones: passing; feel; catch-and-shoot jumper; floater; motor. 

40. Ryan Dunn

• Our collective New York son. Dunn is really starting from 0 on offense – not just shooting. Offense. Absolutely worth a flier if you have a strong developmental plan and context. 

41. Kyshawn George

42. Justin Edwards

43. Ulrich Chomche

44. Enrique Freeman

45. Jamal Shead

46. Pelle Larsson

47. Cam Spencer

Stay tuned tomorrow for the always entertaining Disrespectful Draft Comparisons!