Predicting the 2024-25 Knicks’ Opening Night rotation
Breaking it down from the Knicks starting 5 all the way to the Westchesterites
The Knicks falling to the Indiana Pacers in last spring’s Eastern Conference semifinals kicked off an eventful offseason. With several free agents, a tax bill approaching the dreaded second apron, three draft picks and a number of key players returning from injury, it was clear whatever roster Leon Rose & Co. roll out in October will look different from the one that came up just short in May.
As the dust settles on the offseason, the revamped Knicks enter 2024-25 ready to compete at a high level. Barring changes around the margins, they’ve assembled their roster, with fourteen of the maximum fifteen spots filled out and all three two-way slots. The challenge is now Tom Thibodeau’s, himself the recent recipient of a three-year extension, to elevate this group into a championship contender. With only so many minutes to go around, someone is likely to be unhappy with their playing time. There are a finite 240 minutes to go around (48 minutes times five players).
Minutes per game the last 3 seasons
Last season saw several regulars, including Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Precious Achiuwa playing a larger role than expected due to injuries, logging career highs in minutes per game (see above). Despite their successes, expect each of their minutes to drop this season. Newcomers Bridges and Payne further complicate the minutes distribution. Alas, if the whole team is healthy (admittedly a big if), the following is my best guess for how the minutes work.
Starters
Jalen Brunson The Knicks will roll out the same starting point guard for a third consecutive season for the first time since the Stephon Marbury era. Gone are the days of Jarrett Jack, Alexy Shved and Elfrid Payton – New York has found their superstar. Brunson's stat line last year – 28.7 points, 6.7 assists, 40.1% 3-point shooting – has been matched only once before, by Damian Lillard.
Assuming he makes a healthy return from a broken hand suffered in Game 7 against Indiana, Brunson will carry much of the same load he did last season. While his counting stats may drop slightly given the Knicks' depth of scoring options, Brunson will continue to be a top-10 player and could flirt with a 50/40/90 slash line.
During the regular season, Brunson’s minutes were pretty consistent– check-out with about two minutes left in the first and third quarters, return about 4 minutes into the second and fourth. We’ll assume he sticks to a similar pattern this season.
Prediction: 34 minutes per game at point guard
Mikal Bridges The marquee acquisition and final infinity stone in the ‘Nova Knicks gauntlet (pending the inevitable return of Ryan Arcidacono) will all but certainly man the 2-guard slot in the Bockers’ starting lineup. In his year and a half with the Nets, Bridges split his time almost evenly between shooting guard and small forward, logging spot minutes as a smallball 4. While he was more of a small forward in Phoenix and has spent 67% of his career at the 3, Bridges’ sweet shooting stroke, perimeter defense and ballhandling ability as a secondary creator makes him a perfect fit next to Brunson in the backcourt.
However, expect Thibodeau to use Bridges at the small forward position in bench lineups, where he’ll handle a larger offensive load next to a DiVincenzo/Deuce McBride backcourt. Staggering Bridges with the bench unit will allow the swingman to log extended minutes, as he’ll likely be the first man out in the first and third quarters and often play the entire second and fourth.
Bridges has averaged 35.1 minutes a game the past three seasons (along with a Thibodeauean 38.6 in the playoffs). We’ll round up in 2024-25, as he looks to play every game for the seventh consecutive season.
Prediction: 36 minutes per game (22 at shooting guard, 14 at small forward)
OG Anunoby The $212.5 million dollar man of few words will start at small forward, given Julius Randle making a healthy recovery from a dislocated shoulder. Anunoby, the All-Defensive wing, has averaged a little under 34 minutes per game since becoming a full-time starter five years ago. Annuboy’s skill set has a fair amount of overlap with Bridges’, so expect Thibodeau to stagger their minutes heavily, perhaps leaving one on the floor at all times to hamper the opposing team’s leading scorer.
Given Annuoby’s injury history (he’s played more than 50 games just once in the last four seasons), it would make sense to monitor his minutes early on in the season and in back-to-backs. Fewer OG minutes would mean more run for Hart and DiVincenzo.
Annuoby’s positional versatility gives the Knicks several options. He's naturally a 3 but has spent time at the 2 and 4 as well, giving the ‘bockers another option at power forward behind Randle. Annuoby’s size and length also allow him to guard 5s, which he did against Joel Embiid after Mitchell Robinson went down in Game 4 in Philadelphia. Given the likely increase of Randle’s minutes at the 5 and Bridges’ presence on the perimeter, Anunoby will spend more time on bigger players – in 2024 and beyond.
Prediction: 34 minutes per game (26 at small forward, 8 at power forward)
Julius Randle Returning for his sixth year in the orange and blue, Randle will take on a more complementary role as he enters his 30s. Assuming he can make a full return from injury, Randle will serve as the team’s second option, bringing scoring, rebounding and playmaking from the power forward position. He’s consistently averaged over 35 minutes per game since his breakout 2020-21 season, but with the addition of Anunoby and overall depth of the roster, it's expected his minutes might decrease slightly this season.
Knicks fans have long dreamed of seeing Randle take on regular minutes at the center position, and with the defensive versatility provided by players like Anunoby and Bridges this season could finally see that shift. Randle’s played just 5% of his minutes at center in five years with the Knicks, after playing more than 30% there in four-plus years with the Lakers and Pelicans. Randle's ability to stretch the floor, coupled with his physicality and rebounding, makes him an intriguing option at the 5, especially in smaller lineups where the Knicks want to maximize their offensive firepower.
As Fred Katz of The Athletic pointed out, given the Knicks’ depth, “it’s difficult to find minutes for DiVincenzo and Hart, arguably the NBA’s best one-two punch off the bench, without playing Randle at center for a meaningful stretch of each game.”
However, Randle will still see the majority of his minutes at power forward, where he can use his quickness and strength to dominate mismatches. His playmaking will also be crucial, especially when he shares the court with shooters.
Prediction: 32 minutes per game (26 at power forward, 6 at center)
Mitchell Robinson In year seven, Big Mitch is back as the starting five. Robinson remains a critical piece of the team's defensive identity, and as one of the league’s best shot blockers he’ll be an invaluable asset in the starting lineup. However, the loss of Isaiah Hartenstein adds pressure on Robinson to stay healthy, which he was unable to do last season.
Even as the Knicks lack a true back-up 5, Robinson will likely have his minutes monitored throughout the season. His primary role will continue to be the team's starting center, anchoring what has the potential to be a top-five defense. However, with Randle potentially playing more minutes at center, Robinson could see his playing time fluctuate depending on matchups.
Prediction: 26 minutes per game at center
Bench
Josh Hart After starting the last 36 games of the regular season and all 13 in the playoffs in place of the injured Randle, Hart returns to the bench, where he’ll give the Knicks positional versatility as one of the best sixth men in the league. Despite his 6-foot-4 height, Hart will play most of his minutes at the two forward spots.
While he may only play about 24 minutes a game in the regular season, Hart will be relied on more heavily in the playoffs, given his clutch gene and ability to knock down big shots in crunch time.
Prediction: 24 minutes per game (2 at shooting guard, 8 at small forward, 14 at power forward)
Donte DiVincenzo Last season, DiVincenzo became just the fourth player in NBA history to make at least 275 threes and 40% of his attempts. After setting the single-season franchise record for threes made, he’s rewarded with . . . relegation to the bench. His production took off after joining the starting lineup in December. While his counting stats will likely take a hit, DiVincenzo should be among the best bench players in the league, logging most of his minutes at the shooting guard position.
Another possibility is a trade of McBride leading to DiVincenzo getting minutes at point guard. Before last season, he’d played 17% of his career minutes at the 1. Down the stretch and come playoff time, could DiVo serve as floor general for 8-10 minutes while Brunson gets his rest? It’s a real possibility, especially if Thibs seeks to shrink the playoff rotation to eight or even seven men. A point-guard-by-committee approach, with DiVincenzo, Bridges, Hart and Randle all serving as secondary creators, could free up even more minutes for Knicks regulars and potentially be a go-to come playoff time.
Prediction: 24 minutes per game at shooting guard
Deuce McBride Over the first 31 games last season, Deuce played a mere 81 minutes, nearly all in garbage time. Over his last 14 games, he averaged nearly 37, scoring 15 points and drilling 42.2% from three. Expect the fourth-year guard to play somewhere in-between this season, around 14-15 minutes when the team is healthy and 20-25 when someone gets injured.
Deuce will be the backup 1 this season, even if he projects more as an undersized 2. However, he’ll likely also log minutes next to third-string floor generals Cameron Payne and Tyler Kolek when injuries inevitably arise.
Prediction: 14 minutes per game at point guard
Precious Achiuwa While naturally more of a power forward, the 6-foot-8 Achiuwa filled in admirably at the 5 while Mitch was injured. After logging 36% of his minutes at center with the Knicks last regular season and 53% in the playoffs, he’ll start this season playing most of his minutes there.
Achiuwa does not fit the mold of a traditional Thibodeau center, but showed he can guard bigger players while providing adequate shot-blocking and rebounding, setting per-game career highs in both (0.9 and 6.6). Achiuwa is unlikely to play much at power forward unless Randle cannot stay healthy.
Prediction: 16 minutes per game at center
Knicks rotation predictions, in an NBA2K-style minutes chart
Spot minutes
Tyler Kolek Despite Kolek’s NBA-ready skill set, it is hard to see him getting minutes on opening night. Being buried down the depth chart is more a testament to the Knicks’ stellar depth than his play. However, as was the case with Immanuel Quickley his rookie year, strong play in limited opportunities may force the 6-foot-1 guard into the rotation, perhaps giving way to a trade of McBride or Payne. For now, expect Kolek to only receive playing time in blowouts.
Prediction: Early and often DNPs, a larger role after the All-Star break
Cameron Payne While Payne had multiple suitors, the Knicks reportedly made him a priority, inking him to a 1-year, $3.1 million veteran’s minimum in July. With DiVincenzo and Hart back on the bench, Terry Johnson Payne is unlikely to receive regular minutes with a fully healthy roster, given Thibodeau’s reluctance to play more than nine players. However, if injuries arise expect Payne to lead the second unit, providing the offensive gravity McBride lacks. If not, Payne could be a prime trade target for a contender needing more second-unit depth.
Prediction: 15-20 minutes at point guard if there’s an injury to a guard/forward
Jericho Sims For the third straight season, the Knicks will deploy Sims as their third-string center. While he’s shown flashes as a rim-runner and shot-blocker in a Mitchell-Robinson-lite mold, Sims turns 26 before the season starts and is unlikely to receive regular minutes with a fully healthy roster. However, given Robinson’s injury history and Achiuwa’s smaller frame for a center, Sims will almost certainly receive spot minutes at some point.
Prediction: 15-20 minutes at center if there’s an injury to Robinson or Achiuwa
Keita Bates-Diop A throw-in in the Bridges trade, Bates-Diop gives the Knicks an established presence on the back end of the bench that they lacked last season. While numerous players with higher ceilings stand in the way of regular minutes for KBD, the 6-foot-8 28-year-old is just a year removed from playing nearly 22 minutes a night and averaging 9.7 points and 3.7 rebounds on 51/39/79 splits in 67 games (42 starts) for the Spurs.
Prediction: 10-15 minutes at either/both forward spots if there are injuries to multiple players
Minutes projections by position
Westchester regulars
Pacôme Dadiet Initially rumored to be a draft-and-stash pick, the 19-year-old swingman will instead spend most of his time in Westchester with the Neophyte Knicks.
Ariel Hukporti [two-way] With Taj Gibson signing with Charlotte, Hukporti will serve as New York’s break-glass-in-case-of-emergency center.
Kevin McCullar Jr. [two-way] McCullar displays serious Quentin Grimes-esque upside at the wing, but with a Trevor-Keels floor the 23-year-old Texan is unlikely to get minutes.
Jacon Toppin [two-way] The younger Toppin can play both forward spots but is unlikely to receive serious minutes this season or beyond.
So, do all of the positionally specific minutes matter, particularly at the two, three and four? Absolutely not. Positions were created nearly a century ago, and in many cases referred to completely different roles, depending on the team. But it’s still a fun thought exercise, and gives a blueprint for how the Knicks may distribute their minutes among their top nine when the season begins next month.
