Raptors 90, Knicks 87: This is getting old

The Knicks once again came out flat, falling behind by 20 points in the first quarter in Toronto and ultimately dooming them to another loss, this time taking them to two games under .500.

This is getting old. The Knicks lost for the fifth time in their last six games, and have fallen to 12-14. They are tied for 11th in the East, but only half a game behind the play-in game. What did we learn from last night’s game? Let’s recap.

Another flat first quarter

30-10.

That’s what the score was after Gary Trent Jr. hit a 3-pointer with 2:24 left in the first quarter. As Knicks fans, we have become accustomed to slow starts. The Knicks’ starting unit, pre- and post-Kemba, has been one of the worst in the NBA. But this may have been rock bottom. The Knicks looked lifeless, particularly on the defensive end. And it started, fittingly, with Nerlens Noel. 

Noel was abysmal in his first shift of the game. He could not decide what to do with Raptors center Chris Boucher, a lanky man who Clyde Frazier said reminded him of Manute Bol. Boucher tried dragging Noel to the perimeter, taking away his one elite skill; rim protection. Of course, he’s not the first to deploy this tactic. But it seemed as though the Knicks had finally decided to commit to bringing their paint-bound bigs to the perimeter, and Noel’s code was fighting it. He couldn’t make up his mind, and Boucher reaped the benefits early. The rest of the unit did not fare much better, and at the end of the first quarter, the Knicks trailed, 31-14.

A ray of hope

Enter Obi Toppin.

Toppin checked into the game and did what he has done all season — impacted the game at a high level. You can cite his net rating all you want, but nothing compares to the feeling you get watching the Knicks play when he’s on the court. Boosted by the lethargy of the starting lineups, the gap between the two units feels as wide as the Pacific Ocean. With Toppin, along with fellow energetic sophomore Immanuel Quickley, the Knicks play with a purpose. Perhaps more importantly, they play for each other. With just under five minutes to play in the second quarter, Toppin had already racked up 10 points, five rebounds and an assist, and the Knicks had rode a 29-9 run to tie the game up at 39. Which brings us to our first quandary.

Head coach Tom Thibodeau is many things, a lot of them positive, but perhaps his most overwhelmingly obvious quality is stubbornness. He sees life as one giant nail, and his answer is to always power through it like a hammer. If there is a problem, all you have to do is work harder, or perform better. Naturally, Thibodeau does not believe in staggering rotations. He largely treats his rotations like hockey shifts. He has his starters and he has his bench unit. Last night, Pat Connaughton, a wing for the Milwaukee Bucks, played 31 minutes off the bench for Milwaukee. He checked in and out of the game eight different times. His longest shift was eight minutes.

Thibodeau does not operate that way. The starters start, the bench comes in when they need rest, and then whoever has it going finishes. There are two glaring issues with this philosophy. The first is that it is difficult for someone like Julius Randle to build chemistry with a bench player when their playing time together is so limited. The second issue is one that has emerged far too often this season to be ignored much longer; what is Thibodeau to do when the starters struggle and the bench thrives, but is reaching the end of their rope?

We saw it again last night. Tied 39-39 late in the second quarter, most of the players responsible for the comeback had played over 12 consecutive minutes. So Thibodeau, once again, was faced with an ultimatum — reinsert the struggling starters, or stick with a tired group playing well. He chose a half-measure, finishing the half with Toppin, Quickley, Randle, Alec Burks, and Derrick Rose, a lineup that before last night had played single digits minutes together. A 39-39 tie became a 50-42 deficit. But still, there was reason for optimism: the team was fighting.

A flip of the coin

Basketball is a funky game. It’s not as beautifully random as hockey, nor is it as structured as baseball. It flows naturally, but only so much is in your control. There are going to be nights when the bounces don’t go your way. Last night was seemingly one of those nights. The Knicks played spectacularly in the second half. This was hands down the best defensive performance of the season. The Knicks allowed just 60 points in the final 40 minutes of the game, and even that was probably too high. The Raptors hit contested jumper after contested jumper, and had breaks — both bounces and from a refereeing standpoint — go their way.

Despite that, the Knicks found themselves leading 87-86 with under two minutes to go in the game. Locked in, the Knicks fought over screens and made every rotation crisply, forcing Gary Trent Jr. to take a contested 3-pointer that collided with the rim like a car against a wall. The Knicks got their stop. But they could not collect the rebound. Pascal Siakam corralled the ball for his team and kicked it out to a wide open Fred VanVleet. Heartbreak, right? Wrong! The Knicks caught a break and VanVleet too could not find the bottom of the basket. Unfortunately, once again, the Knicks could not gather the rebound, and this time when the Raptors kicked it out to an open Trent Jr., he did not miss.

This sequence felt like a dagger. Even though the Knicks were only down two points, it almost felt insurmountable. Like no matter what the Knicks did they could not overcome the hole they had dug for themselves. The Knicks would ultimately get a fantastic look to take a 1-point lead with under five seconds left when RJ Barrett drove and kicked it out to a trailing Julius Randle, but Randle’s 3-pointer spun in and out. After a missed free throw, the Knicks had one final chance, and Barrett shot a three with Siakam impeding his landing area that very well could have been called a foul. No basket, no whistle. Game over.

The takeaway here, as it should have been last season, is that these little plays that make or break a game are sometimes uncontrollable. You have to control what you can control. What the Knicks can control is starting games better. What Tom Thibodeau can control is playing his best players more minutes. 

Earning your stripes?

After the game, Thibodeau reacted to Toppin’s performance, saying, "If he plays well, he plays more, it's that simple. You have to earn what you get." Of course, we as fans know this is ridiculous on many levels. Burks led the team in minutes last night with 37. He, fundamentally, did not play well. Yet he played 14 more minutes than Toppin. I, by no means, say this to bury Burks. He has been a revelation, one of the best value contracts in the league, and has more than earned a meaningful role on this team.

But there is a bigger issue at hand here. One that has been bubbling beneath the core of the Knicks’ ozone, waiting to erupt. Thibodeau has always had two different sets of rules for his players. There are those who have to prove they belong, and those who don’t. Once you’ve proved you can do something Thibodeau likes, your role is safe and your leash is nearly endless. Meanwhile, the other guys have to scratch and claw each night for minutes, always one mistake away from being pulled from the game. 

There’s a reason last night’s game looked so familiar; we saw it a dozen times last season. The Knicks would come out sloppy, largely due to the poor play of one player who had one of the least valuable seasons in recent memory. The bench would fight back and, oftentimes, the Knicks found a way to win. Fans would rejoice; not only did the Knicks win another game they had no business winning, but this would finally be the one that made Thibodeau see the light. “Surely he cannot go back to the same starting lineup again,” we’d say. 

Except, he did. Over and over. From the start, this season was never going to end in a championship. We knew that. But it was supposed to represent a step forward. A continued building of chemistry and development. How this season is defined is all in Thibodeau’s hands now. There’s still time to salvage it. Will he see the light? Or will Tom Thibodeau wake up Sunday and once again see a nail and grab his hammer?