RJ Barrett has the pieces. Can he pull them together?
From the time he entered the NBA and leading into his second season, RJ Barrett had two skills that could define his career in the league: finishing and shooting. He’s shown some improvement in both, but is it sustainable? And how do his improvements compare to others at his age?
RJ Barrett has been a revelation this season. He has been an iron man for the Knicks, racking up workmanlike minutes and banking blue collar buckets aplenty, all while being the Knicks’ most consistent perimeter defender. He entered the All-Star break with averages of 16.5/6/2.9 on 44/36/73 splits, coupled with improved passing, finishing, and on/off numbers relative to last year. Almost all the numbers are up!
Rowan and our newly-minted All-Star, Julius Randle, have been the most dependable and consistent players on the team this season. Mitchell Robinson is a force of nature on defense, but his offense contributions are largely out of his control and in the hands of our ball handlers, rendering said contributions erratic — and then he got hurt. Immanuel Quickley is incredible but mercurial, Bullock is average but mercurial, and the rest of the roster’s offensive contributions are a wheel of fortune.
But dig a little deeper, and RJ has had seasons within his season. Parts of his game have grown colorful for months at a time, only for the leaves to fall and make room for new rays of sunshine. Let’s examine these stretches!
He began the season ice-cold from three, at one point missing 21 in a row, but consistently making an impact despite that — dishing out 38 assists in his first 11 games and getting to the line almost five times a game during that stretch. That helped balance out another bad habit of his that carried over from his rookie year: atrocious, touch-less finishing.
Then, something happened around when the Knicks played the Brooklyn Nets in January: he began to hit floaters and layups. A lot. His shot selection near the rim, and his technique and patience looked transformed suddenly. He was taking smarter floaters on his own terms with a plan rather than simply shot-putting the ball near the rim and hoping it might go in.
It started out as a pleasant hot streak, but then a funny thing happened: the heat never let up. A long-time RJ observer, I wondered which RJ was real — he had never had a stretch finishing like this in his life. Yet from that Nets game on Jan. 12 through Feb. 1, he shot 60% at and around the rim. Just 60% at the rim alone would be good, but including floaters and shots around the rim? That is downright ridiculous. The invaluable Tom Piccolo discussed his finishing on video on Feb. 3, remarking on how increased selectivity was resulting in easier finishes.
Because RJ isn’t an above-the-rim finisher in the half court — and doesn’t play in a very well-spaced lineup that doesn’t engage defenses in semi transition — easy layups aren’t frequent. Most wings get some transition layups fairly uncontested and play in more space, a boon to their finishing percentages. In other words, RJ has had a lot working against him for someone who’s never shown much touch. But early in 2021, he seemed to be turning a corner by learning how to subsist on better floaters and layups and dictating his will at the rim, rather than ill-advised low-percentage prayers.
Quick detour: What can we even expect from wings in terms of finishing improvement? What is normal?
Anecdotally, finishing has always seemed to me among the easier skills to develop for both guards and wings, perhaps wings even more due to their height advantage. After all, even Frank Ntilikina — who came into the league among the worst at-rim finishers I have ever seen — has become a very capable finisher in his own right. Through the years of finishing Franknalysis, I have poked around looking for other poor finishers to see what became of them, and most have improved with time (hi, Collin Sexton), though some remain bad (hi, Dennis Smith Jr.). But those are scattered data points, whomst among us could collate thousands of them to develop a bigger picture?
Enter our friends at The BBall Index! For those who don’t know, they collect tons of data — including both stats and tracking information — and incorporate it into grades to get more functional evaluations of players. They graciously provided me with some backend data on age-growth curves to help answer my question on finishing improvements. It’s hard to put an exact expected percentage improvement due to all the factors involved (spacing of the team, role on the team, etc.), but from ages 19 to 21, wings improve an average of 26 percentile points at finishing. Indeed, among all their categories (one-on-one scoring, perimeter shooting, finishing, playmaking, post play, etc.) almost no other category has as high an expected improvement in the age 19-21 period, confirming my developmental anecdote. Rare W for Prez!
OK, tangent complete, back to the review of his Sir Rowan’s first half.
Sadly, RJ’s white-hot streak of incredible touch and clairvoyant shot selection was not destined to last. From Feb. 1 to today, his finishing plummeted back to Earth — he shot 48% at and around (roughly 10 feet) the rim. This was confirmed by the eye test too, as he had arguably his worst stretch of the season in early February, where he sucked at finishing, was not hitting anything from distance, and hardly got to the line. The roller coaster continues. For a look at the film behind his ups and downs, check out this piece from the ever-insightful Jack Huntley.
These two graphs, courtesy of our resident RJ Barrett bandwagon leader Derek Reifer, illustrate the ups and downs. First, a look at RJ’s nine-game rolling average on field goals five feet and in:
And secondly, the same criteria, but for RJ’s attempts from five to nine feet:
Thankfully, right before the NBA broke for the All-Star break, RJ’s finishing began a tiny upswing. Zoomed out, his numbers at the rim this year remain encouraging compared to his rookie year, especially given the spacing he is (not) working with. Courtesy of our friends at BBall Index again:
As you can see in the chart below, also courtesy of BBall Index, getting to the rim a ton is almost always associated with necessarily more tough shots — so all things considered, he’s doing alright despite the inconsistencies. If you squint, you can see RJ just to the left of Luka and underneath Harden — a nice spot, indeed.
The pages of the calendar turned, the weather became more frigid, and another unexpected development happened: RJ started hitting threes.
In January, he shot 35% from three. In February, an insane 47% from three. The volume remained roughly the same but the shot found net more, and more, and more:
None of this was on high volume, and it was all almost entirely off the catch, but the importance of the development still can’t be understated. It helped buoy RJ’s efficiency when his touch around the rim was failing him, and helped space the floor for a team that sorely needed spacing. He’s feasted from the corners, dutifully knocking them down at a 45% clip in the new year.
The million dollar question: “Is it sustainable, Prez? You’re the armchair shot mechanics guru — GIVE THE PEOPLE ANSWERS!”
Well, I’m still working out whether there is any singular mechanical consistency that his improved during that time, and I have some theories (a quicker release that has been closer to a 1.5-motion than a 2-motion at times, and less frequent “knee winks” where he shoots and lands while bending knees almost like he is going to sit down) but I am not confident enough to diagnose the “why” just yet, much less coronate him as an Officially Consistent Shooter. But it’s a good sign nonetheless — 31 games (the total games in 2021) of solid shooting is nothing to sneeze at.
In the meantime, I will just be satisfied with the streak and hope it continues. The way his game is predicated on getting to the rim at an elite clip, he doesn’t need a high volume of 3s to dramatically amplify the impact of his whole game on his whole team. He merely needs to be a respectable play finisher from deep when he isn’t handling the rock, and he’s been exactly that. This sort of mild-but-steady shooting improvement is about what we expect — per BBall Index, here’s perimeter shooting age growth curves for wings age 19-22 (numbers below are percentiles improved, on average):
RJ’s development on offense is a wild swing of peaks and valleys which, when averaged out, trend up. But more than just your run-of-the mill sophomoric inconsistency while improving, there is a strong argument that the precise pieces most important to his long term success have all been on display at different points during the season. These stretches are too long to be considered flashes — you don’t shoot 40% from three for two months by accident, and you don’t finish at an elite clip for a whole month with poor spacing by coincidence... there is likely something real just beneath the surface in both cases. Those two skills — perimeter shooting and finishing — were his biggest swing skills, and are the two things which will amplify his one elite talent (driving) more than any others (such as improved ball handling or improved passing). With the stretch run of this season looming on the horizon, there is plenty of time for RJ to put together a timely and exciting run where he is driving at any elite clip, shooting from distance with efficiency, and finishing well. When he does crack the code to doing all three at once, we’ll likely see the highest scoring stretch of his career. Pray for whoever has to guard him when that happens — they will need it.
