Speed Confuses: A Kira Lewis Jr. discussion
Prez: Kira Lewis Jr. is confusing to me. He clocked in at 12th in our initial big board. I meant what I said in his short profile when I proclaimed that he is the only guard in this class with the combination of proven blow-by athleticism, pull-up shooting, and willing passing that we see out of most great NBA guards. Kemba Walker, Jamal Murray, Dame Lillard, Kyle Lowry, Malcolm Brogdon — whoever you want, they likely have all three of those traits. Sure, a few stud point guards lack one of them, while their cup runneth over in another category (De’Aaron Fox’s athleticism, Kyrie Irving and Trae Young’s pull-up shooting making up for their only-OK athleticism), but for the most part Kira has what you need. He’s also young, hungry, mostly not terrible at defense, and seems like a hard worker, judging from his improvements between his freshman and sophomore years.
So why I am still nervous about him, especially with the EIGHTH pick?
Theo: Because the draft is Nov. 18, and you’ve had like eight years to overthink this, Prez. Makes sense, right?
Seriously, though, I share some of the same concerns. A week or two ago, I had him firmly as the No. 3 point guard on my big board (behind Killian Hayes and LaMelo Ball). Now, I’m not so sure about that. He’s a complete blur in the open court and his measurables are very comparable to guys like Fox and Ja Morant. But he doesn’t have nearly the same athleticism and finishing ability as those guys.
He also isn’t good at getting to the foul line, something most great NBA guards can do (with Kyrie, Steph, and Kemba probably being the only exceptions). Here is a list of point guards drafted in the first round from the last five drafts that had a free throw rate of below .300, per Tankathon:
Darius Garland - .296
Coby White - .293
Ty Jerome - .222
Grayson Allen - .293
Lonzo Ball - .286
Jamal Murray - .283
Kira checks in at .292. Of course, that list isn’t a death sentence, but does that do anything to inspire you?
Prez: NO, IT JUST MAKES ME MORE SCARED! Everyone on that list is a useful player except Grayson, and Jamal is a stud, but I would hope — maybe naively — that a Knicks Kira would exceed all the non-Murray outcomes there. Stylistically, in terms of good outcomes, I imagined a few other jitterbug/pullup jumper guards of varying levels of thiccness — so I looked up the FTR for Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Darren Collison, and FVV at the same age as Kira, and they were all over .400. Not a good sign.
The one small, skinny guard in the NBA with a low FTR who wasn’t one of the aforementioned pull-up gawds was… Ish Smith. Of course, the league and the game are much different now than when Kemba battled in the Big East (RIP), so I don’t know if these comparisons are quite that useful, but it’s still scary.
The finishing stuff is kind of a concern for me, but after watching the Knicks draft Frank, RJB, and Knox — all bad finishers upon entering the league — I am kind of numb to that and, weirdly, kind of optimistic watching how they’ve improved? I feel like finishing is probably among the easier guard skills to go from bad to passable in… it’s going from passable to a great finisher as a guard who plays below the rim that’s the tricky part.
I wanna focus in on one particular player you mentioned who I think is the most similar as a prospect — Coby White.
Coby similarly played in a college offense that was fast-paced, with shooters and NBA-type pick-and-roll sets. Coby’s 3PR was well over .500, which is kind of insane for a ball-handling guard. Despite taking more threes than Kira and hitting them at a similar percentage and being a vastly superior college finisher (over 65% at the rim per Hoop-Math), Coby was still less efficient than Kira, because Kira took 45% of his shots at the rim and Coby took only 28%; and a tough shot at the rim is still a better look than almost any other shot in the game.
(While I’m digging stats up, Coby shot 48% at the rim as a rookie in Chicago. I have no idea what to make of that.)
Coby was kind of hard for me to peg as a prospect because he wasn’t a pure point guard or really a plus defender, so I kind of envisioned him as a microwave guard downside/skinnier Donny Mitchell upside type. I still don’t know what to make of him — he wasn’t all that to start the year and had a dysfunctional team, but his good games were absolute infernos and he ended the season on a complete tear during the last 10-15 games. But he’s basically a tweener, and not in the good way to me. But that ratchet, though….
So I guess my questions for you are how do you feel about Coby, and what does that say for Kira? If Kira is like Coby but 1) less of a combo guard, more of a point guard and 2) has better defensive instincts, I feel like I would sign up for that? Basically, Coby’s scoring, but more passing and defense?
Theo: I like that comparison. Statistically, they are extremely similar to one another. Hell, stylistically, they are similar: below is a clip of Coby using his speed to get to the rim, spotting up, and taking a pull-up J, followed by Kira using his speed to get to the rim, spotting up, and taking a pull-up J. Their jumpers even look similar!
I was a fan of Coby coming out of UNC. Now, I don’t know how to feel about him. What I will say about him is that his ceiling on a contender is tied into how dangerous of a shot-maker he can become (as evidenced by all of the good games that he had this year).
In some ways, that makes him similar to another name on that list, in Jamal Murray. Do you see Kira as that level of shot-maker at the next level though? Personally, I don’t. Kira can make shots, but he hasn’t shown the shot versatility that many of the skilled guards in this league today have shown. He does have a nice touch, so I don’t think you can rule it out completely. But to me, I see his ceiling depending on two things:
His ability to become a more impactful defender
Learning how to use his speed to leverage more playmaking opportunities.
Defensively, as you mentioned, his instincts are pretty good. He finished with a steal rate of 2.5%, which is like the baseline for a really active defender. Him finding ways to create havoc at the point of attack and disrupt passing lanes consistently would go a long way in providing value on that end of the floor.
As far as passing goes, his assist numbers are nothing extraordinary (five per game), but he has shown the ability to find teammates in a variety of ways. He can fling darts with both hands, and because of how fast he is, he should be able to put major pressure on the rim. That would allow for open opportunities for his teammates.
That sounds like a really useful point guard, and I don’t think anything I said is out of reach. Are you higher on his shot-making than I am?
Prez: I don’t think so… you sound pretty even-keeled and room temperature on his shot-making. The one asterisk is that at Alabama they have a very defined system run by coach Nate Oats, discouraging a lot of mid-range shots, so we might have missed out on some middy pull-ups Kira might have otherwise taken. For me, the shot-making all depends on the driving being “impact driving.” He drove quite a lot, which is a good sign for him — the issue isn’t getting into the paint so much as it is what he does in the paint (not unlike RJ Barrett, funny enough). He needs to either be a major passer out of drives like FVV or Elfrid, or a major scoring threat on drives, or else the defense will only be marginally compromised.
Going back to Coby, one question I do have is how Kira’s shot profile would end up. Coby played a lot of 2 guard for a hyper-Moreyball offense: he took over half his shots from three, drove a smidge more than RJ, and ended up with a FG% of 39. I don’t think that is a likely shot profile for Kira, even though he spent two years basically playing Moreyball. I’ll be very surprised if Thibs has him putting up a 3PR anywhere near .500, but but in terms of shots at the rim, there’s a good chance Thibs would use him like he did Nate Robinson, Aaron Brooks, Derrick Rose, et al.: as a PnR-spamming, rim-attacking, score-first guard.
That sounds like a pretty good offensive profile to me. As we bring this home, one big question for you: on our initial rankings, you were probably the lowest of our crew on Kira, ranking him outside the top 15. Is the defense, passing, and decision-making that questionable for you? Do you have any comparisons in terms of what player has passing similar to what you would expect from him, or defense similar to what you would expect from him?
Theo: I think the thing I’m most concerned about is, how locked in will he be defensively? I think on offense, he’s pretty solid with his combination of speed, pull-up shooting, and passing instincts. I expect the passing to get better over time and the numbers finishing at the rim to improve, because he seems to have a good knack for where to place the ball on the glass:
We’ve mentioned him earlier but I think a really good outcome for Kira would be a Mike Conley type of player. Conley got to the foul line at a higher rate and was a horrible shooter, but since coming in the league, he basically flipped the script on both of those issues. He’s become a pretty solid shooter overall and his career free throw rate sits at .291. The main thing that hasn’t changed from his Ohio State days is that he was still a menacing POA defender for a majority of his career.
If Kira continues to make strides in passing (which I expect), then he’ll have a chance to add that kind of value, especially given his age. If the finishing around the rim continues to be underwhelming and he’s never fully able to unlock his passing game, I could see him being a Dennis Schroder type of guy, which is a solid player, but a guy who profiles better as a sixth man rather than a starter for a contending team. I don’t think that would be a great outcome for anyone involved, considering that even though Schroeder made a massive jump this year (career high in TS% by a mile), his impact was pedestrian unless he shared the floor with Chris Paul.
With that being said, I’m not as low on Kira as I sound. I’m definitely moving him up my big board. I probably wouldn’t take him over Tyrese Maxey, though, and I have him in the same tier as Cole Anthony. But I do see a path to him being a really useful point guard if he cleans up those things we mentioned, as well as finding an ideal shot profile. Would I be disappointed if the Knicks take him at eight? It all depends on who is left on the board. Under no circumstances should they pass on Killian if he’s available. Over anybody else? I might be inclined to talk my way into it, as I have for past Knick prospects (Frank, Knox, RJ). But just because I’m able to talk myself into it doesn’t mean that it was the right pick. Would you like to hear his name called on draft night at eight?
Prez: I would prefer if they got him in a trade down (or up!). He’s in the No. 8 range on my board to be clear, I just prefer Killian and Devin Vassell by a good bit. In the end, I’d probably talk myself into him being fine. He would instantly be the best ball-handling shooter on the Knicks by a large margin, and he would probably do more for the team’s pace than any other point guard they could get via the draft or free agency.
His value will definitely go up over time given his youth and skills, but his true optimization scenario would be next to one of these bigger ball handlers… it doesn’t even necessarily have to be a oversized point guard a la Luka Doncic or Cade Cunningham or James Harden, just anyone who’s’ not “point guard sized” who has a high usage. Could be a Devin Booker, a Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, etc., and Kira’s role would be like the roles played by Goran Dragic or Dennis Schroder or Kemba Walker or Mike Conley, in that these guys are legitimate point guards who just happen to be better at scoring than passing.
[whispers]: There’s a decent chance the Knicks land one of those guys in 2021, barring a CP3 trade.
On the other hand, Kira’s worth in that situation probably has a cap because of his defense, barring some outlier offensive development. We’ve seen solid-but-small defenders like Kemba (5-foot-10), FVV (6-foot) or Dragic (6-foot-3) get picked on in the playoffs, or at minimum require some major defensive accommodations. For an idea of what I mean, check these two clips I combined below from Ben Taylor’s Thinking Basketball Video on the Nick Nurse/Brad Stevens Chess Match (the full 10 minute video is amazing), where he analyzes how Boston accommodates Kemba’s defensive weaknesses and how Stevens tried to pick on the short-but-stout FVV a bit, despite him being a legitimately great defender on the whole.
On the OTHER other hand, those kind of guys are critical to their teams’ playoff success precisely because of their offensive dynamism and shooting, unlike Schroder or Pat Beverly, for example. Dragic’s a good example of how speed, shooting, and passable handle/passing can ignite a team, despite not being an elite scoring/shooting player:
So I guess how I feel about Kira isn’t so much confused as it is anti-climactic. He’d be fine — and fun! I don’t know if the Knicks would take him at No. 8 over someone like Isaac Okoro or Vassell, but if those two and Killian are all gone, anyone is really in play, in my humble opinion. Any last words, Theo?
Theo: Yeah. Kira may or may not be the best pick. But he’ll be a fun kid to watch, and he actually adds skills that teams value. Sounds like a (small) win to me!
