The Daniel Jones anomaly

How Daniel Jones may be the worst home performer in the NFL

Growing up, the biggest reason I got into sports was my father. Not only did he introduce me to all of the sports and teams I grew up watching, but he was a big inspiration for me to turn my passion into the career I am pursuing today. A big part of the relationship I have with my father and our shared interest in sports have been the conversations we’ve had over the years about various topics.

From naming what colleges random NBA and NFL players attended, to competing against one another in HoopsGrid, to remembering the good old days of watching New York Giants football. These conversations not only helped my knowledge of the sport grow, but they played a major role in our relationship.

These conversations continue to this day, and, following the Giants' first win of the season against the Browns, my dad sent me a text. “You know what I would like to know and have a feeling about? I think Daniel Jones plays much better on the road than at home.” Now, when he first said this, it kind of made sense in my mind. I’ve never had too optimistic of an opinion on Jones over the years, but it certainly seemed like he had a valid point. However, in the looms of my college grind, the topic slipped my mind for a while.

Then, following back-to-back weeks for Jones and the Giants, the first being a home game in which Jones wildly disappointed against the Cowboys, and the second being an away game in Seattle where Jones played one of the best games of his career, the topic was brought back up and it seemed more relevant than ever.

Two days after this game, my dad did some digging into Jones’ stats between home and away games and discovered something remarkable; he was right. Not only was Jones worse when playing at MetLife, but he was flat-out bad.

How bad are we talking?

Typically, in the NFL, teams will get a big advantage playing in their home stadium unless you are the Los Angeles Rams. The Giants are a good case of this, as even with their horrific record over the last 10 years, fans still pack MetLife Stadium week in and week out in support of their team. Speaking as someone who played football in high school, I loved playing at home, the energy the crowd brought even though the team sucked made playing the game significantly more enjoyable compared to being on the road.

Now, this is nowhere near comparable to an NFL crowd, but it’s still somewhat relatable, you just have to turn up the scale by a million. Anyways, most players tend to elevate their level of play when at home, but this is not the case AT ALL with Jones and it raises not only a concern, but a question; how the hell is this possible?

Before I get into that, I should probably stop wasting time and show you all just how bad he is at home compared to playing on the road, take a look at the graph below:

I mean, holy shit. Not only has Daniel Jones thrown more than TWICE the interceptions despite playing just three fewer games, but he’s thrown 14 fewer touchdowns. While the passing yards are no big deal, as if Jones played the three games he missed at home, he’d likely match or surpass his total on the road, everything else is very concerning. 

When my dad originally sent his splits between Jones at home and on the road, my jaw hit the floor. At the time the thought was originally brought up, I assumed it to be true, but little did I know it would be THIS bad. 

It truly is mind-boggling that Jones plays better in enemy territory compared to at home. For example, in the aforementioned Cowboys game, Jones was off the mark throughout the entire matchup, missing multiple throws that very easily could have swung the tide in the favor of New York. Then, just one week later, playing in Lumen Field, one of the hardest stadiums to play in thanks to the absurd crowd presence, Jones balled out and delivered the Giants a win. 

Is Daniel Jones the only guy who struggles at home? 

While some quarterbacks do enjoy playing on the road, like Patrick Mahomes for example, who last season said playing the Bills in Highmark Stadium was a “great opportunity to go on the road and play in a hostile environment.” The general idea is that most quarterbacks step it up in their home stadium. This is a concept that has been around since the start of football, but is it true? 

Being the nerd that I am, I took a look at every NFL team's current starting quarterback that has 3+ years of experience in the league (to keep things fair for some of the younger guys in the league) in order to see who plays better on the road compared to at home. These are the results: 

Note: For the few QBs who have variables, ex: Less/More TDs and INTs at home, the stat with the greater sum will overtake. For example, (spoiler alert) Baker Mayfield has thrown four fewer interceptions at home, but 17 less touchdowns. So since he has thrown significantly fewer TDs at home, it feels unfair to put him on the opposite side of the chart just because he has a few less INTs.

So, overall, there really isn’t too big of a pattern. Sure more quarterbacks play better at home, but it is not a sustainable amount to for sure say if this is a league-wide thing. On paper, this helps Jones’s case, as a lot of very good quarterbacks match his criteria. However, when looking at just those quarterbacks who meet said criteria, you can begin to see where he stands out.

Out of every QB in the same spot as Jones, he is the ONLY one who has both thrown twice the interceptions compared to on the road, but has also thrown 10+ fewer touchdowns. Some have thrown fewer touchdowns, like Patrick Mahomes, who has 19 fewer at home, and some have thrown a shit ton of interceptions like Lamar Jackson, who is one INT away from being at that double mark, but none have achieved both at the same time like Jones has.

My mindset on the difference between playing at home and on the road completely shifted while writing this. Throughout my entire life, the idea of a home-field advantage has been ingrained in my mind. However, it seems like this research somewhat disproves that theory, at least for quarterbacks.

Some of the players with “worse” stats at home do so in some of the best environments in the league. Mahomes at Arrowhead, Lamar at M&T Bank Stadium, and Geno at Lumen Stadium. When fans and players talk about the best places to play, you often hear these three stadiums, yet, their quarterbacks, statistically, at least, play worse in them.

So, while the theme of playing better on the road may not be a rare thing in the NFL, the level of bad Jones is playing at home is next level compared to the rest of the league. Even the lesser quarterbacks in this criteria like Jacoby Brissett do not reach this level of poor play at home.

There are a lot of directions you can go with this information. For starters, you can flat-out call Jones a bad quarterback, which, for the majority of his career, would be correct. But the level of ass-ness Jones plays when at home is something truly intriguing to me.

Realistically, there’s no way to tell why Jones performs so poorly at home. He’s never spoken on the matter, and to my knowledge, no reporter has ever mentioned it. The common thought in the NFL is that players perform better at home, but as my deep dive showed, that really isn’t the case.

What is undeniable, though, is that of the pack of quarterbacks listed above, and amongst the league in general, Jones is one of the worst performers when in their own home stadium. While his superior numbers on the road have not led to more wins for the Giants, it’s at least inspiring that he shows some forms of life throughout each season. It’s also not a shock that both of New York’s wins this season have come on the road.

In fact, even when just looking at this season, the difference between Jones on the road and at home is pretty insane:

Now, it’s only been five games, and Jones is currently playing pretty solid football. However, the fact that he had a great game on the road against the Browns, fell back to poor play at home against the Cowboys, and then rose back up when back on the road against Seattle certainly helps prove my point.

There’s still plenty of time for Jones to keep up his hot level of play and potentially prove this entire article wrong. However, the theme of playing bad at home has been constant throughout his entire career, not just this season. Lucky for me, the Giants just so happen to play the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6, at home, on Sunday Night Football.

This is the perfect combination for a Jones stinker if my hypothesis is correct. Not only will he be playing in MetLife, but Jones has a 1-12 record in primetime games. The Bengals are 1-4 and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL through five weeks. Realistically, Jones should dominate this matchup, but if this entire article can teach you anything, it’s not to bet on Jones at home.

(Shoutout to my dad for inspiring both me, and this article.)