The Knicks’ 12-15 start has been… let’s just say, less than ideal. What are some of the numbers that explain the extreme drop-off from 2020-21 to 2021-22 thus far?

One year ago, the Knicks were at halftime of a preseason game where Julius Randle had six assists. I was in a work chat with some other Knick writers, who started going off on Randle being hopelessly “selfish.” I couldn’t jive with calling someone selfish when his team was winning and he was the leading distributor. Three writers I know and love to varying degrees cursed me out for my stupidity. A month later the internet was rife with articles delighted by Randle’s play leading the Knicks to their best start and best season in eight years. Am I uniquely insightful? I am not. But sometimes patience is good.

The Knicks are now 12-15 after Sunday’s matinee mauling at the hands of the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. A 5-1 dream start was pissed away in the flames of a 7-14 follow-up. I think it’s still too early to bug – the Knicks have had injury issues they didn’t suffer from last year, and I didn’t expect them to finish that far over .500 in the new gentrified East. But even for the more patient among us, there are a number of areas of concern with this year’s team.

There are a ton of narratives proposing to explain the drop-off: the offense is the problem; the defense is the problem; Tom Thibodeau is too stubborn to make obvious & necessary changes; Randle is too selfish; Randle is too unselfish; Randle is pressing to justify his new contract; Randle doesn’t care anymore because he got that new contract; etc. I’m going to skip past those cans of worms and instead see what the numbers have to say about what’s changed from last season through one-third of this one.

The bigs have been a big disappointment

Last year the Knick centers were a strength. Mitchell Robinson stayed out of foul trouble for the first time in his career and was the defensive anchor before two fractures ended his year; Nerlens Noel was one of the league’s elite shot-blockers; Taj Gibson’s positional intelligence and leadership were boons for a young team. The Knicks brought all three back this year. So far all three have dropped off (2022 numbers prior to the Milwaukee game):

In the interest of human fairness, Robinson and Noel have both been banged up; even when they’ve played, they’re always dealing with something. Literally every five minutes Mitch takes a hard fall or tweaks some lower-body issue; Noel’s already missed more games than he did all last year. The bigs aren’t Broadway’s headliners, but without the defensive foundation they provide, the Knicks are adrift in a windless sea. Thibodeau’s defense is predicated on keeping the opponent from paint points. Win the air battle and you win the war. A team that downgraded its defense in replacing Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock with Evan Fournier and the disappeared Kemba Walker can’t control the skies when its biggest birds can’t get – or stay – off the ground.

New York is paying its centers 50% more than they did last year and getting less across the board. Can Robinson strike a balance between Beefy Mitch and Retro Mitch? He’s not the perimeter menace he used to be, defensively; the rim-running and crazy alley-oops are a thing of the past. He’s stronger but less dynamic, like going from Spider-Man to Venom. Noel’s absurd turnover percentage has somehow gone from 20% to 25%. Last year he played the third-most minutes of his career – is it fair to count on a repeat performance from a center who weights five pounds more than Kevin Knox, Alec Burks, and RJ Barrett? How many times can the Knicks turn to Gibson and expect the engine to fire up again?

Long term, it’s fair to wonder whether their center of the future is even on the roster. Mitch is a free agent come summer, Gibson’s deal isn’t guaranteed beyond this season, and Noel’s is only guaranteed through next year. The drop-off from the centers has been an unquestionable negative. If that doesn’t turn around, the Knicks won’t, either.

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